Decade fluctuations in the rotation rate of the earth in the last 200 years

Maximum Entropy Spectral Analysis and Multiple Regression Analysis of the 200 year series (1781–1980) of the change in L.O.D. (Length of Day) revealed significant peaks atT=21, 32, 50, 63 and possibly 120 years. The periodsT=22 and 44 years seem to be stable over 200 years.     

冬季东亚主要行星尺度环流分量的时空特征及其相互行用

本文采用一种复经验正交函数分析方法和滤波技术,对1978—79年冬季全球冬季风实验资料系列FGGE-Ⅲb进行分析,尤其对东亚地区时间尺度10—20天的主要行星尺度环流分量进行分解,结果表明影响气压和厚度场的决定性因子是冷季风潮,受季风潮影响200百帕上无辐散风u_φ第一模态以1—2天滞后沿经向和纬向有类似于季风潮的传播;季风潮振动导致局地经向环流相应变化,以无旋风V_X第一模态表示的Hadley环流几乎无经向传播但有明显的纬向传播,并在传播过程中加强;热带对于副热带存在反馈并通过u_φ第二模态实现。在急流入口处u_X第二模态表示次级环流的存在,其水平尺度约20个纬距。     

Emergence Patterns of Small Subtidal Arthropods in Relation to Day/Night, Tidal, and Surface/Bottom Factors: Investigations in the Boreal Sea, Japan (Akkeshi, Hokkaido)

The emergence of small arthropods was studied in the boreal sea, Japan (Akkeshi, Hokkaido). In the shallow subtidal zone, two impeller pumps were set in the surface and bottom waters. The pumps ran continuously for 25 days (22 August-16 September, 1998), and invertebrates were sampled using a nylon net (300 to 500 m in mesh size). The small arthropods collected with the net belonged to 16 orders comprising about 60 taxa. In the dominant 23 taxa, a two-way ANOVA was applied to determine whether there was any significant difference in abundance between day and night and between surface and bottom. While emergence of 15 taxa (65%) was significantly different with regard to the day/night factor, that of the other 8 taxa (35%) was not. As to the difference between the two depths, the distribution of 15 taxa (65%) was significantly different. Furthermore, in 25 taxa for which over 100 specimens were collected in each of the two depths of water, emergence patterns were examined with regard to the synchrony with day/night and tidal cycles. There were various nocturnal patterns, and the strength of the synchrony with the day/night cycle was different for each species or group. Within the same taxa, nocturnal patterns were more clearly manifested in the surface water than in the bottom water. A tidal rhythm of emergence was only seen in zoeas of shrimp. Variations of the emergence patterns of benthic crustaceans are accounted for by a hypothesis that the frequency of swimming during day versus at night is different in each species. On the other hand, the emergence patterns of some zooplankton reflect by the daily rhythm of vertical migration or dispersal in the water column.     

大气对外强迫低频遥响应的数值模拟 Ⅰ:对赤道东太平洋SSTA的响应

本文通过在IAP-GCM上实现的数值模拟,研究了大气对赤道东太平洋地区暖SSTA的响应,着重讨论了大气遥响应的性质和演变过程. 数值模拟清楚地表明,大气对异常外源的响应主要是一种具有30—60天周期的低频遥响应.分析不同地区和不同季节这种强迫响应的30—60天低频振荡的结构及活动,可以清楚看到它与大气中实际存在着的30—60天振荡极为相似.因此也可以认为,大气对海温异常的强迫遥响应是激发产生全球大气30—60天振荡的重要机制.     

日长变化与地磁场变化的时滞相关分析

利用历史地磁场模型资料和日长资料,计算和分析了1840~2000年期间地磁场变化与日长变化的互相关特点。结果表明,地磁变化与日长变化存在时滞相关。地磁场强度参数的变化比日长变化超前7.5~10a(年);地磁场西向漂移参数比日长变化滞后,其中,西漂分量.λ12和.λ23滞后7.5a,而地磁场的平均漂移速度和纬度漂移分量滞后20~22.5a。     

A modified monthly degree‐day model for evaluating glacier runoff changes in China. Part I: model development

The retreat of mountain glaciers and ice caps has dominated the rise in global sea level and is likely to remain an import component of eustatic sea‐level rise in the 21st century. Mountain glaciers are critical in supplying freshwater to populations inhabiting the valleys downstream who heavily rely on glacier runoff, such as arid and semi‐arid regions of western China. Owing to recent climate warming and the consequent rapid retreat of many glaciers, it is essential to evaluate the long‐term change in glacier melt water production, especially when considering the glacier area change. This paper describes the structure, principles and parameters of a modified monthly degree‐day model considering glacier area variation. Water balances in different elevation bands are calculated with full consideration of the monthly precipitation gradient and air temperature lapse rate. The degree‐day factors for ice and snow are tuned by comparing simulated variables to observation data for the same period, such as mass balance, equilibrium line altitude and glacier runoff depth. The glacier area–volume scaling factor is calibrated with the observed glacier area change monitored by remote sensing data of seven sub‐basins of the Tarim interior basin. Based on meteorological data, the glacier area, mass balance and runoff are estimated. The model can be used to evaluate the long‐term changes of melt water in all glacierized basins of western China, especially for those with limited observation data. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

田阳三化螟蛾盛发高峰初日气象预警模型

三化螟为水稻主要害虫之一,单食水稻,在田阳一年发生完全4个世代,开展各世代螟蛾盛发高峰期气象预警,对科学适时防螟灭虫,虫口夺粮意义重大。利用农业植保部门提供的三化螟蛾盛发高峰期虫情资料和气象部门气象观测同期资料,采用逐步回归方法,建立三化螟蛾盛发高峰初日气象预警模型。结果表明:各世代预警模型输出的盛发高峰初日与实况误差3天的拟合正确率为82.2%～92.9%。试报2015—2016年,第1世代预报与实况误差为3天,第2代至第4世代误差为1～2天。三化螟蛾盛发高峰初日气象预警模型的拟合正确率、试报结果误差范围比较理想,可投入日常业务应用。     

华北地区高温日数的气候特征及变化规律

基于1960～2009年华北地区90个台站逐日最高气温数据,采用趋势分析等方法分析近50 a华北地区高温日数的时空变化特征。结果表明,近50 a华北地区高温日数以海拔高度800 m等值线为界呈现南多北少的分布特点,南部主要呈减少趋势,北部主要呈增加趋势。同时它显现出明显的"多-少-多"年代际变化特征,与1960年代相比,2000年代高温日数在7月稍增加,5和8月有所减少。近50 a华北地区累计高温过程频次呈微弱的减少趋势,南北部高温过程集中的年代和月份也有所不同。     

大、小潮日闽江口短叶茳芏+芦苇沼泽甲烷排放通量日变化特征

利用"静态箱-悬浮箱-气相色谱法",分别在小潮日(2010年4月4～5日和9月2～3日)和大潮日(2010年4月14～15日和9月9～10日),在闽江口鳝鱼滩湿地的中高潮滩过渡区短叶茳芏(Cyperus malaccensis)+芦苇(Phragmites australis)沼泽中,取样并测定了该沼泽24h的甲烷排放通量,并同步对潮水水位、温度等环境因子进行了观测。研究结果表明,不论大、小潮日,总体上,沼泽是甲烷排放源,白天的甲烷排放通量大于夜间;4月、9月的2个小潮日的甲烷排放通量分别为4.43mg/(m2·h)和8.13mg/(m2·h),2个大潮日的甲烷排放通量分别为1.39mg/(m2·h)和3.25mg/(m2·h),小潮日甲烷排放通量明显大于大潮日;大潮日,涨落潮阶段的沼泽水-气界面甲烷排放通量低于非涨落潮阶段;温度和潮水水位是控制甲烷排放通量日变化的重要环境因子。