乾安县40年气候变化的分析

利用东北地区月平均气温、降水量、蒸发量等资料,计算了宁夏季气温和降水的相关系数,表明东北地区西部复季气温与降水量呈显著负相关.从年代际变化的分析中得知,20世纪90 年代暖干趋势明显,其中以乾安最为突出.分析乾安及其邻近测站蒸发量的年代际变化,表明乾安的夏季蒸发量上升趋势明显,并远大于其他测站,对环境的不良影响加重,而存下垫面条件较好一些的区域,夏季蒸发量呈下降趋势.乾安县未来复季气温仍为上升趋势,降水量存总体平均值之下呈旱.涝交替变化.     

Biological Characteristics of Central Indian Basin Waters During the Southern Summer

Phytoplankton biomass, taxonomy, primary productivity, and photosynthetically available radiation (PAR) were studied as part of baseline data collection for prospective nodule mining in the Central Indian Basin during the ORV Sagar Kanya cruise SK-120 in January 1997. The phytoplankton cell counts and chlorophyll a estimates showed low biomass level, suggesting low rates of primary productivity in the region studied. The average chlorophyll a value was 0.775 mg m^?3 at surface and 17.75 mg m^?2 in the water column. Similarly, average primary productivity at surface was 3.72 mg C m^?3 d^?1 and was 51.23 mg C m^?2 d^?1 in column. The chlorophyll a maxima at 50 to 80 m was the characteristic feature of the euphotic zones of the area. Average phytoplankton counts at the surface were low (3960 cells/l), compared to those at 25 m (6421 cells/l) and 75 m (5187 cells/l). At most of the stations mesozooplankton biomass was maximum in the top 50 m water column, indicating the importance of grazing in the euphotic zone. Appreciable quantities of mesozooplankton were observed below the euphotic zone, where settlement of chlorophyll a occurs. The low iron concentration in the water and its relationship with the water column productivity were correlated. The results show that waters in the CIB have low productivity in the surface as well as subsurface layers. This is expected to change in this case of a mining discharge in to these layers, possibly locally affecting the existing marine ecosystems. The final impact of such mining activity may remain negligible in the deep sea environment.     

Impacts of boundary layer parameterization schemes and air-sea coupling on WRF simulation of the East Asian summer monsoon

The planetary boundary layer(PBL)scheme in the regional climate model(RCM)has a significant impact on the interactions and exchanges of moisture,momentum,and energy between land,ocean,and atmosphere;however,its uncertainty will cause large systematic biases of RCM.Based on the four different PBL schemes(YSU,ACM2,Boulac,and MYJ)in Weather Research and Forecasting(WRF)model,the impacts of these schemes on the simulation of circulation and precipitation during the East Asian summer monsoon(EASM)are investigated.The simulated results of the two local turbulent kinetic energy(TKE)schemes,Boulac and MYJ,are more consistent with the observations than those in the two nonlocal closure schemes,YSU and ACM2.The former simulate more reasonable low-level southwesterly flow over East China and west pacific subtropical high(WPSH)than the latter.As to the modeling of summer monsoon precipitation,both the spatial distributions and temporal evolutions from Boulac and MYJ are also better than those in YSU and ACM2 schemes.In addition,through the comparison between YSU and Boulac experiments,the differences from the results of EASM simulation are more obvious over the oceanic area.In the experiments with the nonlocal schemes YSU and ACM2,the boundary layer mixing processes are much stronger,which lead to produce more sea surface latent heat flux and enhanced convection,and finally induce the overestimated precipitation and corresponding deviation of monsoon circulation.With the further study,it is found that the absence of air-sea interaction in WRF may amplify the biases caused by PBL scheme over the ocean.Consequently,there is a reduced latent heat flux over the sea surface and even more reasonable EASM simulation,if an ocean model coupled into WRF.     

Roles of forced and inertially unstable convection development in the onset process of Indian summer monsoon

The NCEP/NCAR R1 reanalysis data are employed to investigate the impact of forced and inertial instability in the lower troposphere over the Arabian Sea on the onset process of Indian summer monsoon(ISM),and to reveal the important role of zonal advection of zonal geostrophic momentum played in the forced unstable convection.Results show that during the ISM onset the zero absolute vorticity contour(??=0)shifts northward due to the strong cross-equatorial pressure gradient in the lower troposphere over southern Arabian Sea.Thus a region with negative absolute vorticity is generated near the equator in the northern hemisphere,manifesting the evident free inertial instability.When a southerly passes through this region,under the influence of friction a lower convergence that facilitates the convection flourishing at the lower latitudes appears to the north of zero absolute vorticity contour.However,owing to such a traditional inertial instability,the convection is confined near the equator which does not have direct influence on the ISM onset.On the contrary in the region to the north of the zero absolute vorticity contour and to the south of the low pressure center near the surface,although the atmosphere there is inertially stable,the lower westerly jet can develop and bring on the apparent zonal advection of zonal geostrophic momentum.Both theoretical study and diagnosing analysis present that such a zonal advection of geostrophic momentum is closely associated with the zonal asymmetric distribution of meridional land-sea thermal contrast,which induces a convergence center near and further north of the westerly jet in the lower troposphere over the southwestern coast of the Indian Peninsula,providing a favorable lower circulation for the ISM onset.It illustrates that the development of convection over the Arabian Sea in late spring and early summer is not only due to the frictional inertial instability but also strongly affected by the zonal asymmetric distribution of land-sea thermal contrast.Moreover,before the ISM onset due to the eastward development of the South Asian High(SAH)in the upper troposphere,high potential vorticity is transported to the region over the Arabian Sea.Then a local trumpet-shaped stream field is generated to cause the evident upper divergence-pumping effect which favors the ISM onset.When the upper divergence is vertically coupled with the lower convergence resulted from the aforementioned forced unstable convection development near the southwestern coast of Indian Peninsula,the atmospheric baroclinic unstable development is stimulated and the ISM onset is triggered.     

A sensitivity analysis of lake water level response to changes in climate and river regimes

Lake water level regimes are influenced by climate, hydrology and land use. Intensive land use has led to a decline in lake levels in many regions, with direct impacts on lake hydrology, ecology and ecosystem services. This study examined the role of climate and river flow regime in controlling lake regimes using three different lakes with different hydraulic characteristics (volume-inflow ratio, CIR). The regime changes in the lakes were determined for five different river inflows and five different climate patterns (hot-arid, tropical, moderate, cold-arid, cold-wet), giving 75 different combinations of governing factors in lake hydrology. The input data were scaled to unify them for lake comparisons. By considering the historical lake volume fluctuations, the duration (number of months) of lake volume in different ‘wetness’ regimes from ‘dry’ to ‘wet’ was used to develop a new index for lake regime characterisation, ‘Degree of Lake Wetness’ (DLW). DLW is presented as two indices: DLW₁, providing a measure of lake filling percentage based on observed values and lake geometry, and DLW₂, providing an index for lake regimes based on historical fluctuation patterns. These indices were used to classify lake types based on their historical time series for variable climate and river inflow. The lake response time to changes in hydrology or climate was evaluated. Both DLW₁ and DLW₂ were sensitive to climate and hydrological changes. The results showed that lake level in high CIR systems depends on climate, whereas in systems with low CIR it depends more on river regime.     

The exceptionally hot summer of 2007 in Athens, Greece — A typical summer in the future climate?

Summer 2007 was abnormally warm for many areas of southeastern Europe, the Balkan peninsula and parts of Asia Minor with departures from the seasonal means exceeding 4 °C in some areas but also distinct periods of extremely hot weather. Greece experienced very likely the warmest summer of its instrumental history with record breaking temperatures being observed at a number of stations. The historical air temperature record of the National Observatory of Athens (NOA), extending back to the 19th century, was used in order to highlight the rarity of the event. Seasonal (June to August) temperature anomalies at NOA exceeded 3 °C corresponding to more than 3 standard deviations with respect to the 1961–1990 reference period. The record value of 44.8 °C was observed at NOA on 26 June 2007 (previous record 43 °C in June 1916) during the first and most intense heat wave that affected the area. The study places summer 2007 in the climatology of the previous century and also examines whether the statistics of summer 2007 have similarities with Mediterranean summers of the future. An ensemble of regional climate model simulations undertaken for the European domain indicate that summer 2007 reflects the daily maximum temperatures that are projected to occur in the latter part of the 21st century. The analysis of temperature data from other less urbanized stations indicates that the urban heat effect in Athens contributed positively to the anomalies of the nocturnal temperatures. The abnormally hot summer of 2007 is perhaps not the proof but a strong indicator of what eastern Mediterranean summers could resemble in future.     

南海夏季风爆发与前期东亚冬季风异常的关系以及ENSO的作用

基于ERA-interim再分析资料采用相关分析研究了东亚冬季风和南海夏季风爆发的关系,并探讨了ENSO在其中的作用。结果表明,弱冬季风之后的南海地区5月有异常东风、降水偏少,对应于夏季风爆发偏晚;强冬季风之后则相反;但上述关系并不十分显著。进一步利用线性回归将东亚冬季风分为与ENSO有关和无关的部分,对于与ENSO有关的冬季风,上述冬季风-夏季风爆发的关系的显著性有明显提高;但与ENSO无关的冬季风和夏季风爆发并无显著联系。这说明冬季风-南海夏季风爆发的关系主要是由与ENSO有关的冬季风造成的。这一关系可以用ENSO激发的菲律宾异常反气旋或气旋来解释,以弱冬季风之后夏季风爆发偏晚为例:El Ni?o事件一方面激发出菲律宾异常反气旋,使得冬季风偏弱;另一方面又引起热带印度洋增暖,由于局地海气相互作用正反馈和印度洋电容器效应,菲律宾异常反气旋得以维持到晚春。该异常反气旋及其南侧的异常东风不利于南海夏季风的爆发,从而导致夏季风爆发偏晚。     

热带太平洋混合层深度的年际异常及其与中国夏季降水关系分析

利用Godas的逐月混合层深度(MLD)和中国160站逐月降水资料,分析热带太平洋混合层深度的季节变化及年际异常特征,初步探讨混合层深度异常与中国夏季降水异常的相关关系。结果表明:(1)赤道地区,东太平洋区域混合层最浅,中太平洋区域最深,且北半球秋冬季混合层比春夏季深;热带西北和西南太平洋在冬半球混合层深,夏半球浅。(2)赤道中、西太平洋混合层深度的年际异常终年都为大值区,北半球春(秋)季的热带西北太平洋(西南太平洋)也为年际异常大值区;7月年际异常最弱。(3)1、4和10月热带太平洋混合层深度年际异常与ENSO事件关系密切,在El Nio事件期间,热带太平洋东部及东北部混合层深度加深,西部及西南部减小。(4)热带太平洋混合层深度异常与中国夏季降水异常关系密切,这一关系也反映了El Nio事件与中国夏季降水的关系。即当秋冬季节发生El Nio事件时,来年El Nio事件衰减期的夏季长江中下游以南特别是洞庭湖、鄱阳湖的降水将显著偏多,江淮、华南南部降水偏少。     

NUMERICAL SIMULATION OF SOUTH CHINA SEA MONSOON ONSET BASED ON GRAPES MODEL AND EXPERIMENTS ON INITIAL MODEL FIELDS

The Global and Regional Assimilation and Prediction System (GRAPES), a limited-area regional model, was used to simulate the onset of South China Sea summer monsoon. In view of the relatively insufficient information about the initial field in simulation predictions, the Advanced Microwave Sounding Unit-B (AMSU-B) data from a NOAA satellite were introduced to improve the initial values. By directly using the 3-dimensional variational data assimilation system of GRAPES, two schemes for assimilation tests were designed. In the design, Test 1 (T1) assimilates both sounding and AMSU-B data, and Test 2 (T2) assimilates only the conventional sounding data, before applying the model in simulation forecasts. Comparative experiments showed that the model was very sensitive to initial fields and successful in reproducing the monsoon onset, allocation of high- and low-level wind fields during the pentad of onset, and the northward advancement of the monsoon and monsoon rain bands. The scheme, however, simulated rainfall and the location of the subtropical high with deviations from observations. The simulated location of the subtropical high was more westward and northward and the simulated rainfall for the South China Sea was larger and covered a broader area.     

GRAPES模式对西南季风爆发的数值模拟及初值影响试验

使用GRAPES模式对南海季风爆发进行模拟研究。针对模拟预报中初始场信息偏弱的情况,引入NOAA17卫星AMSU-B资料改进初值。直接利用GRAPES三维变分同化系统,设计了两个同化试验方案:试验1(T1)同时同化探空资料和AMSU-B资料、试验2(T2)仅仅同化常规探空资料,然后应用GRAPES有限区域模式进行模拟预报。通过对比试验发现,该模式对初始场的改变十分敏感,可以比较成功地模拟出南海夏季风的爆发时间和爆发候的高、低层风场配置以及季风与季风雨带的向北推进。然而该方案对于雨量和副热带高压位置的模拟,与观测相比尚存在一定的偏差,主要表现为副热带高压位置模拟偏西、偏北;南海地区的降水量模拟偏大、降水范围偏大。