用Gumbel极值分布推算气候极值的方法

介绍了用Gumbel极值分布理论推算气候极值的矩法、Thomas曲线公式和最小二乘法。并计算多年一遇的年最高气温、年最大均风速、年最大日降雨量和年最大波高。指出,变率小的要素极值再现期短;变率大的要素极值再现期长;Thomas曲线公式的计算结果较其它两种方法接近历史实况,且计算简便。     

南海东沙东北部甲烷缺氧氧化作用的生物标志化合物及其碳同位素组成

南海东沙东北部碳酸盐岩和泥质沉积物中的生物标志化合物组合及其碳同位素组成分析表明,研究区内甲烷缺氧氧化作用(anaerobic oxidation of methane-AOM)发育.研究区内碳酸盐岩中含丰富的AOM标志化合物,2,6,11,15-四甲基十六烷(Crocetane-Cr.)、2,6,10,15,19-五甲基番茄烷(Pentamethylicosane-PMI)和2,6,10,15,19,23-六甲基二十四烷(Squalane-Sq角鲨烷)的13C亏损强烈(δ13C值介于-74.2‰~-119.0‰PDB之间),表明碳酸盐岩形成于AOM,同时反映该研究区曾发生过强烈、持续的富CH₄流体释放活动.柱状泥质沉积物中,AOM生物标志化合物在硫酸岩-甲烷过渡带(SMI-Sulfate-Methane Interface)边界附近相对丰度高,SMI之上样品中含量低,或未检出,表明现代环境在SMI附近有大量嗜甲烷微生物生长,使得深部上升的甲烷被大量消耗,很少有甲烷逸出海底.AOM生物标志化合物可用来指示SMI边界.不同站位、不同岩性AOM生物标志化合物组成(包括碳同位素组成)的差异反映了嗜甲烷古细菌组成的不同.     

广西寒露风开始期短期气候预测方法研究

利用1951-2013年广西90个气象观测站气温资料、国家气候中心74项指数和美国National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration（NOAA）的Climate Prediction Center（CPC）60项指数以及海温和陆地雪盖资料、美国国家冰雪研究中心（NSIDC）的两极海冰资料,使用相关分析方法得到广西寒露风开始期气候影响因子,利用逐步回归和神经网络方法进行寒露风开始期的预测。结果表明：寒露风开始期与前一年9-10月北极海冰面积、当年3月南极海冰面积、前一年6月欧亚雪盖、当年5月北美雪盖、北半球雪盖的相关显著。与前一年9月北半球极涡面积指数、前一年10月亚洲区极涡面积指数、前一年3月热带印度洋海温偶极子等指数相关显著。粒子群-神经网络方法预测误差低于逐步回归方法,预报能力有明显提高。     

The 2020/21 Extremely Cold Winter in China Influenced by the Synergistic Effect of La Niña and Warm Arctic

In the first half of winter 2020/21,China has experienced an extremely cold period across both northern and southern regions,with record-breaking low temperatures set in many stations of China.Meanwhile,a moderate La Ni?a event which exceeded both oceanic and atmospheric thresholds began in August 2020 and in a few months developed into its mature phase,just prior to the 2020/21 winter.In this report,the mid?high-latitude large-scale atmospheric circulation anomalies in the Northern Hemisphere,which were forced by the negative phase of Arctic Oscillation,a strengthened Siberian High,an intensified Ural High and a deepened East Asian Trough,are considered to be the direct reason for the frequent cold surges in winter 2020/21.At the same time,the synergistic effect of the warm Arctic and the cold tropical Pacific(La Ni?a)provided an indispensable background,at a hemispheric scale,to intensify the atmospheric circulation anomalies in middle-to-high latitudes.In the end,a most recent La Ni?a prediction is provided and the on-coming evolution of climate is discussed for the remaining part of the 2020/21 winter for the purpose of future decision-making and early warning.     

南海东北部冷泉区末次冰期沉积间断及其成因

对南海东沙海域冷泉区DH-CL10和DH-CL5柱状样开展AMS14C年代学、高分辨率底栖有孔虫和沉积物同位素以及沉积学研究。结果表明:DH-CL10柱状样在全新统底部574 cm处出现沉积间断,间断面相邻沉积物AMS14C年龄分别为9 850/(9 680~9 950) cal.aBP和27 610/(27 500~27 700) cal.aBP,相当于MIS2期和部分MIS3期的沉积缺失。底栖有孔虫Uvigerina bifurcata的δ13C值为-0.37‰~-1.91‰,平均值为-1.11‰,沉积物全岩碳同位素值为-22.7‰~-23‰,均为正常的碳同位素值。尽管该柱状样未发现天然气水合物分解释放的地球化学证据,但相邻的DH-CL5柱状样相当于其所缺失的部分沉积中的自生碳酸盐岩和沉积物的δ13C负偏明显,分别为-55.24‰和-25.9‰~-27.9‰,表明与天然气水合物分解有关。推断DH-CL10柱状样沉积间断所缺失的沉积物可能记录了天然气水合物分解的证据,且沉积间断主要出现在末次盛冰期低海平面,与天然气水合物易分解的时间相吻合,因此,沉积间断的形成可能主要与下伏天然气水合物的分解导致沉积物的滑塌有关。     

2015年台风“彩虹”过境后下山冷急流引起的南海北部海域异常海面降温

This study deals with a unusual cooling event after Typhoon Mujigea passed over the northern South China Sea(SCS) in October 2015. We analyze the satellite sea surface temperature(SST) time series from October 3 to 18,2015 and find that the cooling process in the coastal ocean had two different stages. The first stage occurred immediately after typhoon passage on October 3, and reached a maximum SST drop of –2℃ on October 7 as the usual cold wake after typhoon. The second stage or the unusual extended cooling event occurred after 7d of the typhoon passage, and lasted for 5d from October 10 to 15. The maximum SST cooling was –4℃ and occurred after 12d of typhoon passage. The mechanism analysis results indicate that after landing and moving northwestward to the Yunnan-Guizhou Plateau(YGP), Typhoon Mujigea(2015) met the westerly wind front on October 5. The lowpressure and positive-vorticity disturbances to the front triggered meridional air flow and low-pressure trough,thus induced a katabatic cold jet downward from the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau(QTP) passing through the YGP to the northwestern SCS. The second cooling reached the maximum SST drop 4d later after the maximum air temperature drop of –9℃ on October 11. The simultaneous air temperature and SST observations at three coastal stations reveal that it is this katabatic cold jet intrusion to lead the unusual SST cooling event.     

冻土工程与环境研究的新进展——第八届国际冻土工程会议回顾

2009年10月在西安召开第八届国际冻土工程会议, 就冻土地区工程设计与建设、季节冻土区工程冻害防治、冻土物理力学特性、 模型发展及其应用、寒区气候、环境及冷生变化、多年冻土水文学、寒区水资源和土地应用等主要议题进行了广泛交流, 报告了近年来冻土工程与环境研究方面的一些新进展. 从冻土工程设计、施工和评价、普通冻土研究、冻土的物理力学性质、冻土模型发展及应用、 气候变化及冰冻圈环境等方面对该次会议交流的成果进行了总结. 与会研究者认为今后的研究一方面要加强理论研究、工程措施机理研究;另一方面要加强寒区环境对气候变化的响应及反馈、以及环境变化与冻土工程措施之间的相互作用研究.     

中国冷冬的气候研究

 2008年1月中国发生了低温、雨雪、冰冻天气,对南方的交通、通讯和输电等造成了严重的影响,也极大地提高了人们研究冷冬的兴趣。气候资料表明,这个冬季的温度负距平可能接近或小于冷冬的标准（-1.5℃）,远低于寒冬的标准（-2.5℃）。但是,这是1977年以来最冷的冬季。近千年的资料表明,寒冬之后,夏季在中国出现东部多雨或北方多雨的概率会超过气候值。温度分布的EOF分析表明,2008年1月的温度变化可能是年际变化的反映,因此,未来短时间内再次出现这种类型冷冬的可能性不大。     

Research Progress of Seafloor Pockmarks in Spatio-Temporal Distribution and Classification

Seafloor pockmarks are important indicators of submarine methane seepages and slope instabilities.In order to promote the understanding of submarine pockmarks and their relationship with sediment instabilities and climate changes,here we summarize the research results of pockmarks in the spatio-temporal distributions and shaping factors.Most of pockmarks occur along active or passive continental margins during the last 25 kyr B.P..Circular and ellipse are the most common forms of pockmarks,whereas pockmarks in a special crescent or elongated shape are indicators of slope instabilities,and ring-shape pockmarks are endemic to the gas hydrate zones.Further researches should be focused on the trigger mechanism of climate changes based on the pockmarks in the high latitudes formed during the deglaciation periods,and the role of gas hydrates in the seafloor evolution should be elucidated.In addition,the feature of pockmarks at their early stage(e.g.,developing gas chimneys and gas driving sedimentary doming)and the relations between pockmarks and mass movements,mud diapirs could be further studied to clarify the influences of rapid methane release from submarine sediments on the atmospheric carbon contents.     

依法行政从严管矿努力提高矿产资源管理水平

文章论述了依法行政、从严管矿的必要性、紧迫性、长期性及可行性,提出符合广西情况的对策措施,以确保矿业经济可持续发展.