北非副热带高压与中亚夏季降水的关系

基于1979—2019年欧洲中期数值预报中心（ECMWF）的ERA-Interim逐月再分析数据和英国东安格利亚大学气候研究中心（CRU）的陆面逐月降水数据,分析夏季北非副热带高压（北非副高）与中亚夏季降水的关系。结果表明：北非副高的脊线指数和东伸脊点指数变化与中亚夏季降水联系紧密。在2个指数的单独变化和协同变化下,中亚夏季降水和大尺度环流异常分布存在很大不同。副高脊线主要导致中亚夏季降水南北反相变化,副高东伸脊点位置对中亚中南部降水存在重要影响。当副高位置偏东偏北时,里海和咸海上空受异常气旋控制,哈萨克斯坦大部分地区降水偏多,新疆受蒙古异常反气旋控制,降水偏少;当副高位置偏西偏南时,中亚地区主要受异常反气旋控制,其东北部存在异常气旋切变,对应中亚东北部降水偏多,其余区域降水偏少;当副高位置偏西偏北时,中亚上空受异常反气旋控制,大部分地区降水偏少;当副高位置东偏南时,中亚上空受异常气旋控制,热带印度洋水汽通过两步输送的方式,进入中亚上空,形成有利的动力和水汽条件,导致中亚大部分地区夏季降水偏多。     

The Impact of Herder Sedentarization on Natural Resource Access in Northeastern Ghana

The Fulani of West Africa have increasingly migrated to humid West Africa since the Sahelian droughts of the 1970s, drawing opposition from indigenous groups that are concerned about the deprivation of their livelihood and monopolization of resources for herders’ livestock. This research, which involved farmers, shepherds, and Fulani herders, addressed three issues: the nature of indigenous grazing and watering regimes, shepherd–herder relations, and herders’ impact on resource access for indigenes’ livestock. The research indicates that in-community and off-community platforms for resource access exist. The former has not been impacted by the herders; the latter has experienced changes insufficient to constitute an overhaul of resource access at the expense of indigenes’ livestock. Instead, a “shepherd–herder” category of resource access has emerged that is characterized by negotiation for resource space, opening avenues for addressing broader resource access issues, and typically tense indigene–herder relationships.     

西非海洋渔业资源非法捕捞现状和对策

海洋渔业(尤其是小型海洋渔业)为世界各地的沿海居民提供了重要的食物来源、就业、经济收入。西非临近海域是世界上海洋渔业资源最丰富的地区之一,在西非沿海地区数百万居民以捕鱼为生,然而,西非众多捕鱼区却是最贫穷的地区。在全球化不断推进的今天,非法捕捞已严重威胁到海洋生态系统安全。西非临近海域的非法捕捞问题尤为严峻。在整合相关文献资料的基础上,分析了非法捕捞的主要影响,并对西非地区的非法捕捞现状和问题进行了讨论,认为部分欧盟国家是非洲西部海洋渔业资源主要非法捕捞者,西方学者认为中国是西非地区主要的非法捕捞者是不符合事实的。非法捕捞的根本原因是持续的鱼类需求和捕捞活动缺乏控制。基于以上分析,提出了西非非法捕捞的应对措施,以期有助于解决西非非法捕捞问题。     

Theoretical estimates for the influence of Lake Victoria on flows in the upper White Nile

Abstract

A theoretical model is described for estimating the impacts of changes in Lake Victoria levels on river flows, lake levels and swamp areas in the upper White Nile basin. The basis of the model is to represent the main river channel by a series of interconnected lakes and swamps, whose water balances are described by differential equations relating outflows to levels, areas and the net basin supply at each point. Closed form solutions are obtained for two situations: (a) a long-term change in the mean level of Lake Victoria, and (b) a return to equilibrium levels following an initial disturbance in Lake Victoria levels. A simple model for the net basin supply to Lake Victoria is also used to relate these changes in levels to changes in climate and runoff in the basin. The results illustrate the extreme sensitivity of White Nile flows to changes in Lake Victoria levels and outflows, and in particular to variations in the direct rainfall on the lake surface. Estimates are also presented for the various time scales and time delays which affect the White Nile system.     

Time-dependent shear velocities in channel routing

Abstract

The main aim of this study is the experimental investigation of friction velocities and shear stresses in rivers under unsteady flow conditions. Special measurements of mean velocities and other hydraulic parameters were made in two small lowland rivers in central Poland. Four controlled flood waves were released and analysed in the selected reaches. The main hydrometric characteristics and the relationship between water level and discharge were established. Friction velocities were obtained directly from the full St Venant equations of motion, as well as from only the steady momentum equation, and their time-dependent forms were established. Both these approaches provided similar results when the unsteadiness parameter was relatively low. It appeared that real friction velocities were much larger than those obtained from the common uniform flow formula. The passing hydrograph influenced the value of the shear velocity significantly.     

SUR LA PUISSANCE DES CRUES AU JAPON A MADAGASCAR ET A LA REUNION

Abstract

Hydrological modelling has faced the problem of ungauged basins for many years: how does one estimate hydrological characteristics for a river for which there are no data? Whatever the kind of model, it needs at least hydroclimatic input data and discharge data for calibration. However, the Yates model does not need any discharge data for calibration: it is a pre-calibrated model from a vegetation—climate classification map. In the specific context of West and Central Africa, where data are often of poor quality and very scarce, it is interesting to compare the performance of such a model with those of calibrated models, and with observed data. For this study, a platform including different semi-global rainfall—runoff models which allow the estimation of monthly runoff at a spatial resolution of 0.5° × 0.5° was used. The performance of the Yates model is very close to those of calibrated models, so that one can say that this simple model, based simply on a vegetation—climate classification, can be a very useful prediction tool in regions of scarce and unreliable data, such as those of interest to the International Association of Hydrological Sciences (IAHS) initiative on prediction in ungauged basins (PUB). Therefore, this model was applied to a period covering the last 30 years, and to a data set covering the first decades of the 21st century, from a climatic scenario of doubling the CO₂ concentration in the atmosphere. The results show that, in West Africa, where drought conditions have now prevailed for 35 years, water resources should still be decreasing in the future, following the general decreasing trend of rainfall projected by the climatic scenarios.     

Incorporating uncertainty in hydrological predictions for gauged and ungauged basins in southern Africa

Abstract

The increasing demand for water in southern Africa necessitates adequate quantification of current freshwater resources. Watershed models are the standard tool used to generate continuous estimates of streamflow and other hydrological variables. However, the accuracy of the results is often not quantified, and model assessment is hindered by a scarcity of historical observations. Quantifying the uncertainty in hydrological estimates would increase the value and credibility of predictions. A model-independent framework aimed at achieving consistency in incorporating and analysing uncertainty within water resources estimation tools in gauged and ungauged basins is presented. Uncertainty estimation in ungauged basins is achieved via two strategies: a local approach for a priori model parameter estimation from physical catchment characteristics, and a regional approach to regionalize signatures of catchment behaviour that can be used to constrain model outputs. We compare these two sources of information in the data-scarce region of South Africa. The results show that both approaches are capable of uncertainty reduction, but that their relative values vary.

Editor D. Koutsoyiannis

Citation Kapangaziwiri, E., Hughes, D.A., and Wagener, T., 2012. Incorporating uncertainty in hydrological predictions for gauged and ungauged basins in southern Africa. Hydrological Sciences Journal, 57 (5), 1000–1019.     

Traditional irrigation techniques in MENA with a focus on Tunisia

ABSTRACT

Due to their efficiency, revitalized traditional techniques for irrigation management of scarce water resources have been suggested as a way to at least partially cope with the present water crises in the Middle East. A better irrigation management includes re-using treated wastewater in agriculture. Treated wastewater should also be used in industrial processes, thus contributing to a more efficient overall water management. However, the most important change leading to better water management is improving water efficiency in agricultural irrigation. Traditional water management techniques have an important role in many Middle East and North African (MENA) countries. Besides bringing more water to a thirsty population, they can also contribute to the societal awareness, and recognition of the great diversity of cultural and social values water has to human civilization.

EDITOR D. Koutsoyiannis; ASSOCIATE EDITOR P. Hubert     

Evolution of an incised valley coastal plain estuary under low sediment supply: a ‘give‐up’ estuary

The literature on incised river valley sedimentology is dominated by studies of sediment‐rich systems in which the valley has been filled during and/or shortly after drowning. In contrast, the Holocene evolution of the Kosi Lagoon, South Africa (an incised coastal plain river valley) took place under very low sedimentation rates which have produced a distinctive stratigraphy and contemporary sedimentary environments. The findings are based on a synthesis of the results of studies of seismic stratigraphy, sediment distribution, morphodynamics and geomorphology. Barrier migration was prevented by a high pre‐Holocene dune barrier against which Holocene coastal deposits accumulated in an aggradational sequence. Holocene evolution of the back barrier involved: (i) drowning of the incised valley; (ii) wave‐induced modification of the back‐barrier shoreline leading to segmentation during the highstand; and (iii) marine sedimentation adjacent to the tidal inlet. Segmentation has divided the estuary into a series of geochemically and sedimentologically distinctive basins connected by channels in the estuarine barriers. The seismic stratigraphy of the back barrier essentially lacks a transgressive systems tract, shoreline modification and deposition having been accomplished during the highstand. The lack of historical geomorphological change suggests that the system has achieved morphological equilibrium with ambient energy conditions and low sediment supply. This study presents a classification for estuarine incised valley fills based on the balance between sea‐level rise and sedimentation in which Kosi represents a ‘give‐up’ estuary where much of the relict incised channel form is drowned and preserved. It exhibits a fundamentally different set of evolutionary processes and stratigraphic sequences to those of the better known incised valley systems in which sedimentation either keeps pace with sea‐level (‘keep‐up’ estuaries) or occurs after initial drowning (‘catch‐up’ estuaries).     

Kilometre‐scale sand injectites in the intracratonic Murzuq Basin (South‐west Libya): an igneous trigger?

Mount Telout, situated at the edge of the Murzuq Basin, is a 325 m high conical hill within a circular collapse structure that records 0·5 km³ of sand intrusion into Silurian shales. Based on a comparison with other similar circular collapse structures around the Murzuq Basin, it is argued that sand injection in the form of pipes occurred during the Devonian. The overpressures triggering the process are inferred to result from a combination of: (i) tectonic uplift at a basin scale that initially focused regional ground water flows; and (ii) igneous intrusion within the sand‐rich Cambrian–Ordovician strata. The palaeorelief buried under the regionally extensive Silurian shales may have locally focused overpressures and localized sand injection at the 1 to 10 km scale. The Mount Telout injected sandbody and related features offer exceptional, seismic‐scale outcrop analogues for sand injections that are often identified in seismic reflection data. Large‐scale sand injections might be essential in petroleum exploration of the North African Lower Palaeozoic basins as they form seal‐bypass systems.