地震科技成果奖励政策的研究与实践

本文系统论述了国家地震局的科技成果奖励政策及其特点并介绍了10年来的执行状况。 地震系统建立的国家级、部委级及基层级(厅局级)三个层次的奖励体系是合理有效和可行的,它进一步调动了地震系统广大科技人员的积极性和创造性,促进了地震科技工作的发展。     

马边地震带发震构造背景的初步研究

北北西向的马边－盐津隐伏深断裂是马边地震带形成的主要条件，尤其被东西向甘洛－沐川深断裂和盐津－叙永深断裂转限的段落是强震多发段。地壳表层有北北西向马边－盐津断裂组和地面微隆起带，但地表断裂与陷伏深断裂并不连通，且地表断裂走向与结构复杂多变，这是造成马边地震带强震地面破坏效应及地震影响场特点的基本原因。     

Mantle heat flow and geotherms for major tectonic units in central Europe

The results of seismic measurements along the deep seismic sounding profile VII and terrestrial heat flow measurements used for construction of heat generation models for the crust in the Paleozoic Platform region, the Sudetic Mountains (Variscan Internides) and the European Precambrian Platform show considerable differences in mantle heat flow and temperatures. At the base of the crust variations from 440–510°C in the models of Precambrian Platform to 700–820°C for the Paleozoic Platform and the Variscan Internides (Sudets) are found. These differences are associated with considerable mantle heat flow variations.The calculated models show mantle heat flow of about 8.4–12.6 mW m^–2 for the Precambrian Platform and 31 mW m^–2 to 40.2 mW m^–2 for Paleozoic orogenic areas. The heat flow contribution originating from crustal radioactivity is almost the same for the different tectonic units (from 33.5 mW m^–2 to 37.6 mW m^–2). Considerable physical differences in the lower crust and upper mantle between the Precambrian Platform and the adjacent areas, produced by lateral temperature variations, could be expected. On the basis of carbon ratio data it can be concluded that the Carboniferous paleogeothermal gradient was much lower in the Precambrian Platform area than in the Paleozoic Platform region.     

Heat flow in Italy

More than fifty heat flow measurements in Italy are examined. The values, corrected only for local influences (when present), are related to the main geological features with the following results: foreland areas, 55±19 mW m^–2, foredeep areas, 45±21 mW m^–2; folded regions and intermountain depressions, 76±29 mW m^–2. In volcanic areas the heat flow rises to in excess of 600 mW m^–2. From a tectonic point of view, these values are consistent with the hypothesis that the Apennine chain is intersected by two arcuate structures: the first from Liguria to Latium is very probably a continental arc, that is an are which occurs within a continent, and the second from Campania to Calabria is very similar from geophysical evidence to the classic island arcs.     

华北地区重力场与沉积层构造

位于中朝准地台的华北地区是由几个不同的断块组成的,重力异常场的分布具有很强的浅部效应、块状分布和深浅叠加场的特点。重力的高程效应很复杂,不同波长的起伏变化有不同的影响系数。本文对布格改正的有关问题进行了讨论,指出华北如区表浅层的密度值偏低（2520kg/m3）,该区合理的布格改正公式为△g2=-0.0879H。将重力场的垂直导数和向上延拓结合起来,有利于揭示地壳上部构造特征。本文搜集整理了由第四系到寒武系的沉积层资料,给出了沉积层总厚度和视密度的分布。对深部重力异常的分析表明,华北沉积层的形成有深源性质,在均衡调节中起着一定的内载荷作用。     

滇西实验场地震中短临动态跟踪综合预测方案及其实践运用

对滇西实验场1992年以来地下流体前兆观测资料进行分析研究,选取应震效果通过R信度检验（对应MS≥5.0级地震）的8条单项前兆指标。综合考虑单项前兆指标虚报率和漏报率对指标信度的影响,对单项前兆指标利用数学模型进行综合处理,减少了虚报和漏报的次数,预测效果明显提高。利用分级预警模式分别建立了中期（T≤6个月）和短临（T≤3个月）预测模型。综合预测方案还提供了地点判定原则和震级估算原则。最终提供地震短临预测三要素。运用本综合预测方案对2011年腾冲5级双震、2013年洱源5级双震和德钦两次5级地震作用了较为成功的短临预测。     

一种地方与区域地震震源机制反演技术：广义极性振幅技术（一）——原理与数值实验

基于数十年来已有的研究进展,提出了一种地方和区域地震震源机制反演技术——广义极性振幅技术（GPAT）,并通过一系列数值实验检验了这种技术的可行性和抗干扰能力.首先,从地震波场概念出发,利用P波初动极性与广义震相振幅构建矢量,建立反演系统,并给出求解技术;然后,考虑影响反演结果的各种因素,包括台站布局、台站数目、随机噪声、震中位置误差、震源深度误差和速度模型误差,分别进行了单一因素影响测试;最后,同时考虑各种因素进行了综合测试.实验结果表明,GPAT是可行的,具有良好的抗干扰能力.需要强调的是,在众多影响因素中,速度模型误差对反演结果的影响最大.     

A derived probability distribution approach to stormwater quality modeling

The closed-form analytical stormwater quality models are developed for simulating urban catchment pollutant buildup and washoff processes. By integrating the rainfall–runoff transformation with pollutant buildup and washoff functions, stormwater quality measures, such as the cumulative distribution functions (CDFs) of pollutant loads, the expected value of pollutant event mean concentrations (EMCs) and the average annual pollutant load can be derived. This paper presents methodologies and major procedures for the development of urban stormwater quality models based on derived probability distribution theory. In order to investigate the spatial variation in model parameters and its impact on stormwater pollutant buildup and washoff processes as well as pollutant loads to receiving waters, an extended form of the original rainfall–runoff transformation which is based on lumped runoff coefficient approach is proposed to differentiate runoff generation mechanisms between the impervious and pervious areas of the catchment. In addition, as a contrast to the aggregated pollutant buildup models formulated with a single lumped buildup parameter, the disaggregated form of the pollutant buildup model is proposed by introducing a number of physically-based parameters associated with pollutant buildup and washoff processes into the pollutant load models. The results from the case study indicate that analytical urban stormwater management model are capable of providing results in good agreement with the field measurements, and can be employed as alternatives to continuous simulation models in the evaluation of long-term stormwater quality measures.     

兰新第二双线铁路防风明洞实验段风荷载数值模拟研究

介绍了高速铁路防风明洞的基本作用及设计方法;利用计算流体动力学原理中的数学模型及控制方程,对兰新第二双线铁路防风明洞大风作用下的风荷载进行了分析;通过计算工况的假定以及边界条件的合理设定,采用有限体积法建立防风明洞数值分析模型,并模拟计算了平地路段、浅路堑地段和路堤地段三大类工况和70、60、50、40m/s4种风速情况。研究结果表明：①开孔情况下,明洞各部位所受风荷载随着风速增大而增大;②明洞迎风侧均为正压,平地地段与路堤地段所受正压较接近,最大值出现在风速为70m/s时,迎风边墙正压为3202Pa;③明洞拱顶及背风侧均为负压,浅路堑地段所受负压最大值出现在风速为70m/s时,拱顶负压为-3550Pa;④各地段背风侧所受负压均小于-1500Pa,背风墙脚与背风边墙受力基本相同;⑤各地段各风速情况下,拱顶处负压均为最大;⑥开孔情况下的明洞各部位风荷载,普遍小于不开孔情况;⑦明洞开孔附近有回流风速,并随着外界风速增大而增大。     

再论印度与亚洲大陆何时何地发生初始碰撞

印度与亚洲大陆碰撞形成了喜马拉雅造山带.该造山带是当今固体地球科学研究的重点和热点,是建立新的大陆动力学理论的最佳天然实验室.印度与亚洲大陆碰撞时限是正确认识和理解该造山带形成与演化、高原隆升的动力学过程等的起点.近南北向陆陆碰撞的最直接证据是碰撞带两侧块体在古纬度上的相互重叠.本文拟通过对相关古地磁资料的分析,结合近年来在拉萨地块南缘林子宗群火山岩和沉积岩夹层上获得的最新古地磁结果,探索当今古地磁数据所限定的印度和亚洲大陆发生初始碰撞的时间和古地理位置.结果表明,拉萨地块林子宗群形成时期(约64~44 Ma)古亚洲大陆最南缘的古地理位置(~10°N)限定了印度与亚洲大陆的初始碰撞最可能发生在65~50 Ma之间;如果以由印度洋海底地形所限定的东冈瓦纳大陆裂解前的印度板块形状为大印度模型,则印度与亚洲大陆的初始碰撞很可能发生在60~55 Ma之间.