用历史类比法对中国强震活动的概率预测

本文将20世纪全球强震活动划分为7个活动期,以国内中强以上地震同期活动资料进行比较,对未来国内强震活动趋势作出中期的统计概率预测,似乎可以作为一个较为有力的判据。     

基于对流可分辨集合预报的阜宁龙卷概率预报研究

本文针对2016年6月23日江苏阜宁龙卷,设计了两组对流可分辨尺度集合预报:一组以ERA5再分析资料为初始和侧边界(CEFS_ERA5);另一组以NCEP GEFS为初始和侧边界(CEFS_GEFS),评估了两组试验对此次龙卷的预报能力。结果显示:两组对流尺度集合预报均有约半数以上成员能够再现龙卷超级单体的特征;2~5 km上升螺旋度(UH25)对本次龙卷超级单体有较好的预报指示意义。在上述分析的基础上,考虑位置预报偏差,提出了一种基于UH25的邻域龙卷概率预报产品,分析了龙卷概率预报技巧对关键参数邻域半径和UH25阈值的敏感性,CEFS_ERA5邻域半径取15个格点,UH25阈值取250 m²·s^-2最优;而CEFS_GEFS邻域半径取15个格点,UH25阈值取100 m²·s^-2最优。总的来说,邻域概率预报产品显著提升了对此次龙卷概率预报水平。     

强震孕育与断层形变异常形态及时空分布特征

分析了华北北部20世纪70年代初以来的断层形变资料。结果表明：震前断层活动存在明显的阶段性特征；短临阶段断层形变异常主要形态有两种：一种是在α、β相后的γ相短临异常，这种异常一般在近源区出现；另一种是较大幅度的突跳型短临异常，这种异常一般在远源区出现，这些都是断层形变前兆由中期过渡到短期的明显标志；断层形变短临异常有从外围向震中迁移的特征；唐山地震前出现γ相短临异常的比例高于大同和张北地震，主要表现为在中期趋势积累背景上的反向；3次强震前α、β、γ相异常场地的分布具构造控制特征；强震前场地断层异常活动存在象限性分布特征，且与震源机制解的结果基本一致。     

伊朗地震台网现状分析

通过中伊双方合作交流，详细考察了伊朗的地震台网。伊朗现建有4类台网:地震遥测台网、国家地震台网、强震台网及水库诱发地震台网。这些台网中高性能宽频带地震仪数量不足，使得地震定位精度不高;且4类台网分属不同机构，在一定程度上限制了伊朗的地震监测能力。     

山东半岛南部一次沿海强降雨成因分析

利用常规气象观测资料、区域自动站观测资料、NCEP/NCAR 1°×1°再分析资料和雷达探测等资料,对2012年9月21日山东半岛南部沿海强降雨过程的成因进行了天气学诊断分析,结果表明:1强降雨是在500hPa第1个西风槽过后第2个西风槽逼近的过程中产生的,850hPa以下为偏南的向岸风,且风速随时间增大,形成偏南的超低空急流,持续地向沿海输送水汽和能量,造成水汽辐合、湿度增大、对流有效位能升高。产生强降雨的水汽和不稳定能量条件远小于内陆地区。2在向岸的超低空急流的左侧产生中小尺度的涡旋和辐合上升,海岸地形抬升作用使得上升运动加强,触发对流不稳定能量释放,造成强降水。3在雷达回波中,小尺度的对流单体沿海岸线向西南方向发展,后期在日照附近的沿海形成弓状回波,向东南海区移动。     

STATISTICAL ANALYSIS ON THE INFLUENCE OF THE LANDFALLING STRONG TROPICAL CYCLONES IN THE CATASTROPHIC MIGRATIONS OF NILAPARVATA LUGENS(STL) IN CHINA

In order to clarify the statistical pattern by which landfalling strong tropical cyclones(LSTCs)influenced the catastrophic migrations of rice brown planthopper(BPH),Nilaparvata lugens(stl)in China,the data of the LSTCs in China and the lighting catches of BPH that covered the main Chinese rice-growing regions from 1979 to 2008 were collected and analyzed in this work with the assistance of ArcGIS9.3,a software of geographic information system.The results were as follows:(1)In China,there were 220 strong tropical cyclones that passed the main rice-growing regions and 466 great events of BPH’s immigration in the 30 years from 1979 to 2008.73 of them resulted in the occurrence of BPH’s catastrphic migration(CM)events directly and 147 of them produced indirect effect on the migrations.(2)The number of the LSTCs was variable in different years during 1979 to 2008 and their influence was not the same in the BPH’s northward and southward migrations in the years.In the 30 years,the LSTCs brought more obvious influence on the migrations in 1980,1981,2005,2006 and 2007.The influence was the most obvious in2007 and all of the 7 LSTCs produced remarkable impact on the CMs of BPH’s populations.The effect of the LSTCs on the northward immigration of BPH’s populations was the most serious in 2006 and the influence on the southward immigration was the most remarkable in 2005.(3)In these years,the most of LSTCs occurred in July,August and September and great events of BPH's immigration occurred most frequently in the same months.The LSTCs played a more important role on the CM of BPH’s populations in the three months than in other months.(4)The analysis on the spatial distribution of the LSTCs and BPH’s immigration events for the different provinces showed that the BPH’s migrations in the main rice-growing regions of the Southeastern China were influenced by the LSTCs and the impact was different with the change of their spatial probability distribution during their passages.The most serious influence of the LSTCs on the BPH’s migrations occurred in Guangdong and Fujian provinces.(5)The statistical results indicated that a suitable insect source is an indispensable condition of the CMs of BPH when a LSTC influenced a rice-growing region.     

引入强跟踪滤波器的 IMM 算法在导航定位解算中的应用

针对单一模型对城市机动载体运动状态估计不足的问题,本文在标准交互式多模型算法的基础上引入强跟踪滤波器,并以“当前”模型和“CV”模型作为基础模型进行交互式模型滤波。利用信号源仿真动态数据分析对比了利用单一模型算法、标准交互式多模型算法和引入强跟踪滤波器的交互式多模型算法的定位解算性能。实验结果表明：本文提出的基于强跟踪滤波器的交互式多模型算法相比于“当前”模型滤波和标准IM M 算法径向误差方差分别从19.11和16.78降低到13.24．     

Earthquake, strong tide and global low temperature

＂La Madre＂ is a kind of upper atmospheric air current, and occurs as ＂warm phase＂ and ＂cold phase＂ in the sky of Pacific Ocean alternately. There exists this phenomenon, called ＂Oscillation Decade in the Pacific＂ （ODP）, for 20 - 30 years. It is concerned with 60 year cycle of the tides. Lunar oscillations explain an intriguing 60-year cycle in the world＇s temperature. Strong tides increase the vertical mixing of water in the oceans, drawing cold ocean water from the depths to surface, where it cools the atmosphere above. The first strong seismic episode in China was from 1897 to 1912; the second to the fifth was the in 1920-1937, 1946-1957, 1966-1980, 1991-2002, tsrectruely. The alternative boundaries of＂La Madre＂ warm phase and cold phase were in 1890, 1924, 1946 and 2000, which were near the boundaries of four strong earthquakes. It indicated the strong earthquakes closedly related with the substances＇ motion of atmosphere, hydrosphere and lithosphere, the change of gravity potential, and the exchange of angular momentum. The strong earthquakes in the ocean bottom can bring the cool waters at the deep ocean up to the ocean surface and make the global climate cold. the earthquake, strong tide and global low temperature are close inrelntion for each othen.     

Study on Variation of Fitting Goodness of Relation Between Earthquake Frequency and Magnitude before Moderately Strong Earthquakes (Ms≥5.0)

In this paper,characteristics of spatial and temporal variation of linear fitting goodness before some moderately strong earthquakes(Ms≥5.0)in the eastern part of China(east of longitude 180)are studied according to the famous Gutenberg-Richter's relation expressed as lgN=a-bM,by using the moderate and small events that occurred in and around the source area.The results show that the linear goodness of fitting varies abnormally prior to these moderately strong earthquakes.In the early stage of the earthquake preparatory process,distribution of the energy released through small events in and around the source area is isostatic and the fitting goodness approximates 1,while the distribution of the energy turns to be isostatic before moderately strong earthquakes,leading to the obvious decrease of the linear goodness of fitting.This phenomenon could be a medium term anomaly and a medium term criterion for moderately strong earthquake prediction.     

依据GPS数据研究伽师及帕米尔东北侧1994～1998年地壳水平运动及其与强震群的关系

利用伽师强震群区及帕米尔东北侧地区 1994～ 1998年的GPS监测成果 ,用DDA方法模拟了伽师强震群前后该地区地壳运动和应力应变的变化过程。结果表明 :在此期间伽师地区的应变以南北向挤压为主 ,伽师附近最大主应变变化达到 5× 10 - 8/a ,最大剪应变变化也超过 2 .5×10 - 8/a ,明显高于周边地区。伽师强震群的发生与GPS监测成果反映的该地区地壳运动和应力应变的变化存在明显的对应关系。GPS监测成果反映出在伽师地区有一应力应变变化的集中区域。通过在伽师强震群震中分布块体中强行沿其最大剪应力方向 (NE)增加一新的破裂 ,可使该块体应力应变下降至与周围块体相均衡 ,且能量可能沿柯坪断裂向东北方向传递。新增断裂的运动呈左旋 ,并导致其所在块体呈右旋运动