Constraints on 2-Way Transport across the Arctic Tropopause Based on O3, Stratospheric Tracer (SF6) Ages, and Water Vapor Isotope (D, T) Tracers

Based upon airborne trace gas and isotope observations in the winter months 1991/1992 to1994/1995, transport pathways across the mid-latitude and Arctic tropopause areinvestigated. A powerful set of contrasting transport tracers are examined, such asdeuterated water vapor (HDO) which is shown to trace the passage of water vapor from thetroposphere into the lowermost stratosphere (LS), or the `SF₆ age' defined as theresidence time of an air parcel within the stratosphere since its entry at thetropopause. Cross-tropopause transport in both directions was found near mid-latitudecyclones (at baroclinic flanks of troughs in the polar front), in which about 80% of thestratosphere-to-troposphere flux proceeded along potential temperature ()surfaces of 300 ± 10 K. As these isentropes are the lowest which reach into the LS(in winter), a mixing zone just above the Arctic tropopause (at least 1.5 km thick) isformed. Here, upwelling tropospheric air is mixed with downwelling LS air which isaffected by air from higher altitudes, the surf-zone and the polar vortex. The observedelevated D/H isotope ratio of water vapor within the mixing zone can be explained byinjection of subtropical water vapor that is transported to the tropopause by the warmconveyor belt associated with mid-latitude cyclones. Downward vertical transport ofArctic LS air, which may be influenced by ouflowing chemically disturbed polar vortexair, into the Arctic troposphere was found to be small.     

Personalized travel route recommendation using collaborative filtering based on GPS trajectories

Travelling is a critical component of daily life. With new technology, personalized travel route recommendations are possible and have become a new research area. A personalized travel route recommendation refers to plan an optimal travel route between two geographical locations, based on the road networks and users’ travel preferences. In this paper, we define users’ travel behaviours from their historical Global Positioning System (GPS) trajectories and propose two personalized travel route recommendation methods – collaborative travel route recommendation (CTRR) and an extended version of CTRR (CTRR+). Both methods consider users’ personal travel preferences based on their historical GPS trajectories. In this paper, we first estimate users’ travel behaviour frequencies by using collaborative filtering technique. A route with the maximum probability of a user’s travel behaviour is then generated based on the naïve Bayes model. The CTRR+ method improves the performances of CTRR by taking into account cold start users and integrating distance with the user travel behaviour probability. This paper also conducts some case studies based on a real GPS trajectory data set from Beijing, China. The experimental results show that the proposed CTRR and CTRR+ methods achieve better results for travel route recommendations compared with the shortest distance path method.     

Dynamic Seasonal Transition from Winter to Summer in the Northern Hemisphere Stratosphere

This study applied the modified spatial simi- larity coefficient method to define the seasonal transition （ST） from winter to summer in the extratropical strato- sphere of the Northern Hemisphere. The features of the ST were examined using European Centre for Medium- Range Weather Forecasts （ECMWF） Interim reanalysis data; and the results showed that the time and duration of the ST, which is affected by the activity of planetary waves （PW） in the stratosphere, largely depended on the geophysical locations. This study also investigated the interannual variability of the ST and its relationship with stratospheric sudden warming （SSW） and the qua- si-biennial oscillation （QBO）. It was shown that the late-onset SSW events （after 22 January） are close to the start of the ST. An easterly （westerly） QBO hastens （de- lays） the onset of the ST in high and low latitudes, whereas it delays （hastens） the ST in midlatitudes. The duration of the ST is significantly affected by the QBO. The influence of SSW and the QBO have different sig- nificance in different latitudes, so they are both important and irreplaceable factors.     

Characteristics of Gaseous Pollutants at a Regional Background Station in Southern China

Measurements of gaseous pollutants （03, NOx, SO2, and CO） were conducted at Dinghushan background station in southern China from January to December 2013. The levels and variations of O3, NOx, SO2, and CO were analyzed and their possible causes discussed. The annual average concentrations of 03, NOx, SO2, and CO were 24.6 ± 23.9, 12.8 ± 10.2, 4.0 ± 4.8, and 348 ± 185 ppbv, respectively. The observed levels of the gaseous pollutants are comparable to those at other background sites in China. The most obvious diurnal variation of 03 was observed in autumn, with minima in the early morning and maxima in the afternoon. The diurnal variations of SO2 showed high values during the day. The diurnal cycles of NOx showed higher values in the morning and lower values during the night. Higher CO concentrations were observed in spring followed by winter, autumn, and summer. Biomass burning, in combination with the transport of regional pollution, is an important source of CO, SO2, and NOx in spring and winter. Backward trajectories were calculated and analyzed together with corresponding pollutant concentrations. The results indicate that air masses passing over polluted areas are responsible for the high concentrations of gaseous pollutants at the Dinghushan background station.     

Chaotic mixing of tracer and vorticity by modulated travelling Rossby waves

Abstract

We consider the mixing of passive tracers and vorticity by temporally fluctuating large scale flows in two dimensions. In analyzing this problem, we employ modern developments stemming from properties of Hamiltonian chaos in the particle trajectories; these developments generally come under the heading “chaotic advection” or “Lagrangian turbulence.” A review of the salient properties of this kind of mixing, and the mathematics used to analyze it, is presented in the context of passive tracer mixing by a vacillating barotropic Rossby wave. We then take up the characterization of subtler aspects of the mixing. It is shown the chaotic advection produces very nonlocal mixing which cannot be represented by eddy diffusivity. Also, the power spectrum of the tracer field is found to be k ^{? l} at shortwaves—precisely as for mixing by homogeneous, isotropic two dimensional turbulence,—even though the physics of the present case is very different. We have produced two independent arguments accounting for this behavior.

We then examine integrations of the unforced barotropic vorticity equation with initial conditions chosen to give a large scale streamline geometry similar to that analyzed in the passive case. It is found that vorticity mixing proceeds along lines similar to passive tracer mixing. Broad regions of homogenized vorticity ultimately surround the separatrices of the large scale streamline pattern, with vorticity gradients limited to nonchaotic regions (regions of tori) in the corresponding passive problem.

Vorticity in the chaotic zone takes the form of an arrangement of strands which become progressively finer in scale and progressively more densely packed; this process transfers enstrophy to small scales. Although the enstrophy cascade is entirely controlled by the large scale wave, the shortwave enstrophy spectrum ultimately takes on the classical k ^{? l} form. If one accepts that the enstrophy cascade is indeed mediated by chaotic advection, this is the expected behavior. The extreme form of nonlocality (in wavenumber space) manifest in this example casts some doubt on the traditional picture of enstrophy cascade in the Atmosphere, which is based on homogeneous two dimensional turbulence theory. We advance the conjecture that these transfers are in large measure attributable to large scale, low frequency, planetary waves.

Upscale energy transfers amplifying the large scale wave do indeed occur in the course of the above-described process. However, the energy transfer is complete long before vorticity mixing has gotten very far, and therefore has little to do with chaotic advection. In this sense, the vorticity involved in the enstrophy cascade is “fossil vorticity,” which has already given up its energy to the large scale.

We conclude with some speculations concerning statistical mechanics of two dimensional flow, prompted by our finding that flows with identical initial energy and enstrophy can culminate in very different final states. We also outline prospects for further applications of chaotic mixing in atmospheric problems.     

2019-2020冬季北半球超强极涡事件

2019-2020冬季北极平流层极涡异常并且持续的偏强,偏冷.利用NCEP再数据和OMI臭氧数据,本文分析了此次强极涡事件中平流层极涡的动力场演变及其对地面暖冬天气和臭氧低值的影响.此次强极涡的形成是由于上传行星波不活跃.持续的强极涡使得2020年春季的最后增温出现时间偏晚.平流层正NAM指数向下传播到地面,与地面AO...     

共享社会经济路径在土地利用、能源与碳排放研究的应用

情景是气候变化研究的重要工具。为了科学支撑气候变化科学评估和研究，2010年政府间气候变化专门委员会（IPCC）提出了共享社会经济路径（Shared Socioeconomic Pathways，SSPs）。作为从社会经济变化视角构建的气候情景，SSPs促进了气候变化科学基础、影响、脆弱性、风险、适应和减缓等学科的综合研究。本文介绍了SSPs情景研发与应用过程；阐述了全球和中国的人口经济、土地利用、能源和碳排放的模拟和预估主要成果；探讨了全球和中国碳排放路径及其与“双碳”目标的关系；并展望了SSPs应用前景。