Recent Arctic ozone depletion: Is there an impact of climate change?

After the well-reported record loss of Arctic stratospheric ozone of up to 38% in the winter 2010–2011, further large depletion of 27% occurred in the winter 2015–2016. Record low winter polar vortex temperatures, below the threshold for ice polar stratospheric cloud (PSC) formation, persisted for one month in January 2016. This is the first observation of such an event and resulted in unprecedented dehydration/denitrification of the polar vortex. Although chemistry–climate models (CCMs) generally predict further cooling of the lower stratosphere with the increasing atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases (GHGs), significant differences are found between model results indicating relatively large uncertainties in the predictions. The link between stratospheric temperature and ozone loss is well understood and the observed relationship is well captured by chemical transport models (CTMs). However, the strong dynamical variability in the Arctic means that large ozone depletion events like those of 2010–2011 and 2015–2016 may still occur until the concentrations of ozone-depleting substances return to their 1960 values. It is thus likely that the stratospheric ozone recovery, currently anticipated for the mid-2030s, might be significantly delayed. Most important in order to predict the future evolution of Arctic ozone and to reduce the uncertainty of the timing for its recovery is to ensure continuation of high-quality ground-based and satellite ozone observations with special focus on monitoring the annual ozone loss during the Arctic winter.     

Cluster Ion Reactions: Insights into Processes of Atmospheric Significance

Experimental results of ion cluster reactions withatmospherically relevant species are considered hereinto provide a unified overview of the current state ofunderstanding brought about through experimentalstudies of cluster ion reactions. This isaccomplished by first outlining the atmospheric issuesaddressed by cluster ion studies and then, summarizingthe results of numerous studies. The recent, as wellas previously published studies of cluster ionreactions, are considered in the context of gainingnew insights into the molecular details ofheterogeneous processes involving the interactions ofelectrolytes with cloud droplets, ice crystals andaerosol particles. In addition to elucidating themechanisms of these and other selected reactions andtransformations of atmospheric significance, thefindings of the uptake of acid molecules in waterclusters are shown to lead to the suggestion of a newmodel that accounts for the formation of reactioncenters involving charged sites at aqueous surfaces.     

Minor Constituent Concentrations Measured from a High Altitude Aircraft Using High Resolution Far-Infrared Fourier Transform Spectroscopy

Far-infrared emission spectroscopy has beendemonstrated to be a valuable method for remotesensing of trace species in the stratosphere, with theability to simultaneously detect a number of keychemical species. SAFIRE-A is a new far-infraredFourier Transform (FT) spectrometer which has beenspecifically designed to operate on board of a highaltitude aircraft in the lower stratosphere and uppertroposphere regions where relatively few remotesensing measurements have been made. Using newtechnology, the sensitivity of the FT spectrometermethod has been substantially improved for the longwavelength region. Results are reported formeasurements of O₃, HNO₃ and N₂O at 17and 19 km using a detection window near 23 cm^-1.Geographical and altitude variability of the volumemixing ratio of these constituents and their relativecorrelation are discussed. Ozone measurements agreewell with in situ measurements, except in regions ofstrong stirring and mixing associated with deformationof the northern vortex edge. Whilst SAFIREmeasurements of trace gases do not capture all of thelocal variability seen by rapid in-situ techniques,they can indicate horizontal variability close to, butnot intercepted by, the aircraft's flight path. Apossible detection of ClO at the low background levelsexpected outside the polar vortex is also reported.     

平流层臭氧变化对对流层气候影响的研究进展

平流层对对流层的作用是准确评估、预测对流层气候变化的一个重要方面。其中平流层成分尤其是臭氧的变化,可以改变平流层乃至对流层的辐射平衡,从而影响平流层、对流层的热动力过程。本文从辐射、动力2个角度介绍了平流层臭氧影响对流层气候变化的若干研究进展。平流层臭氧可以通过长短波辐射的方式对对流层大气造成辐射强迫,利用大气化学气候模式可以定量计算平流层臭氧变化引起的辐射强迫,但是辐射强迫的估算受模式中辐射传输模块本身缺陷的影响存在不确定性。动力方面,平流层臭氧变化产生的辐射效应可以改变温度的垂直和经向梯度,造成波折射指数的变化,进而影响平流层甚至对流层内波的折射与反射,通过上对流层下平流层区域内的波—流相互作用,对对流层气候产生影响。另外,南极臭氧损耗可通过大气环状模影响冬春季中高纬度对流层的天气气候,但是其影响的强度大小以及物理机制仍需进一步的确认。值得注意的是,北极平流层臭氧的变化与北半球中高纬度气候变化之间的关系相比南半球要更加复杂,需要更为深入的研究。     

1979—2011年热带对流层顶高度线性趋势变化的因子贡献及其年际变率成因探讨

利用美国国家环境预报中心/大气研究中心(NCEP/NCAR)再分析资料分析了近30年(1979—2011年)热带(0~360 °E,20 °S~20 °N)对流层顶高度变化,结果显示其高度有明显的线性上升趋势,近30年气压下降了3.5 hPa。其中对流、臭氧和对流层温度的贡献分别为13.3%、27.26%和57.31%。在去除线性趋势后,热带对流层顶气压表现出了显著的年际变率,主要周期峰值为18.2、28.6和40个月。其中臭氧和热带对流层温度都对18.2个月的周期有贡献,而臭氧和热带对流层温度18.2个月的周期很可能是由北半球的季风环流引起的;28.6个月的周期主要源于臭氧总量的准两年周期变化,而后者是由热带平流层低层纬向风场的准两年振荡引起的;热带对流层顶气压40个月的周期似乎源于ENSO循环引起的对流层温度变化。      

北半球50hPa大气低频振荡与突发性增温

本文利用５０ｈＰａ１９６９－１９７６年７个冬季的高度场资料进行了功率谱分析。分析发现３０－６０天低频振荡在高纬地区比中低纬更为显著；并且发现在阿留申高压北进的路径以及在极点上平流层突发性增浊的强年比弱年的相关要高，这表明３０－６０天的振荡在上述地区与温度有着密切联系。我们选取１９７０－１９７１年冬季强突发性增温个例，进一步分析了平流层突发性增温过程中的基本特征，结果表明：３０－６０天的振荡对平流层     

A new weighting function for estimating microwave sounding unit channel 4 temperature trends simulated by CMIP5 climate models

A new static microwave sounding unit (MSU) channel 4 weighting function is obtained from using Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project, Phase 5 (CMIP5) historical multimodel simulations as inputs into the fast Radiative Transfer Model for TOVS (RTTOV v10). For the same CMIP5 model simulations, it is demonstrated that the computed MSU channel 4 brightness temperature (T4) trends in the lower stratosphere over both the globe and the tropics using the proposed weighting function are equivalent to those calculated by RTTOV, but show more cooling than those computed using the traditional UAH (University of Alabama at Huntsville) or RSS (Remote Sensing Systems in Santa Rosa, California) static weighting functions. The new static weighting function not only reduces the computational cost, but also reveals reasons why trends using a radiative transfer model are different from those using a traditional static weighting function. This study also shows that CMIP5 model simulated T4 trends using the traditional UAH or RSS static weighting functions show less cooling than satellite observations over the globe and the tropics. Although not completely removed, this difference can be reduced using the proposed weighting function to some extent, especially over the tropics. This work aims to explore the reasons for the trend differences and to see to what extent they are related to the inaccurate weighting functions. This would also help distinguish other sources for trend errors and thus better understand the climate change in the lower stratosphere.     

Projections of the East Asian Winter Monsoon under the IPCC AR5 Scenarios Using a Coupled Model: IAP-FGOALS

Responses of the East Asian winter monsoon(EAWM) in future projections were studied based on two core future projections of CMIP5 in coordinated experiments with the IAP-coupled model FGOALS2-s.The projected changes of EAWM in climatology,seasonality,and interannual variability are reported here;the projections indicated strong warming in winter season.Warming increased with latitude,ranging from 1 C to 3 C in the Representative Concentration Pathways simulation RCP4.5 projection(an experiment that results in additional radiative forcing of ～4.5 W m 2 in 2100) and from 4 C to 9 C in the RCP8.5 projection(an experiment that results in additional radiative forcing of ～8.5 W m 2 in 2100).The northerly wind along the East Asian coastal region became stronger in both scenarios,indicating a stronger EAWM.Accordingly,interannual variability(described by the standard deviation of temperature) increased around the South China Sea and lower latitudes and decreased over eastern China,especially in North China.The two EAWM basic modes,defined by the temperature EOF analysis over East Asia,were associated with the Arctic Oscillation(AO) and stratospheric polar vortex.The future projections revealed more total variance attributable to the secondary mode,suggesting additional influences from the stratosphere.The correlation between AO and the leading mode decreased,while the correlation between AO and the secondary mode increased,implying increased complexity regarding the predictability of EAWM interannual variations in future projections.     

基于神威中期集合数值预报系统的产品开发

利用我国神威中期集合数值预报系统 32 个成员的输出资料, 根据预报业务的需要, 开发出新的集合预报产品。 其产品有 500 hPa 高度场分簇和特征等高线面条图、关键点 850 hPa 温度的概率烟羽图和温度变化趋势图、全国省会城市的要素预报分布图。     

顾及路网与轨迹多模特征的道路等级分类研究

道路等级不仅反映在路网结构的静态骨架信息上,也蕴含在轨迹数据呈现的动态语义信息上。为解决(OpenStreetMap)OSM路网部分路段及路网生成产品等级缺失问题,本文提出一种顾及路网与轨迹多模特征的道路等级分类方法。首先通过轨迹数据的清洗、地图匹配和基于路名的路网合并实现轨迹点与命名道路的联结;然后以命名道路为分析单元,综合考虑路网及轨迹数据,在系统分析路网结构的道路几何特征、道路分布特征、道路拓扑特征及道路单双向信息基础上,进一步挖掘与融合轨迹数据蕴含的道路宽度、道路车流量、道路速度等静动态特征,形成关于道路等级的描述特征集,作为识别道路等级的基础与依据;最后以随机森林(RF)为基本分类器进行特征选择及模型训练实现道路等级识别。为验证本文方法,选取武汉市汉正街区域及二环区域,基于OSM路网数据及众源轨迹数据开展试验。该方法取得了较好的分类结果,小范围汉正街区域的验证集准确率为91.2%,大范围二环区域的验证集准确率达到80.8%。与单类特征相比,集成路网与轨迹特征极大提高了道路等级分类准确率;与原始路段形式进行道路等级分类相比,以路名重构道路形式进行道路等级分类效果更好。