Research on the Global Warming Hiatus

A global warming “hiatus” has been observed since the beginning of the 21st century despite the increase in heat-trapping greenhouse gases, challenging the current global warming studies. Focusing on the phenomena and mechanisms of the global warming “hiatus”, the National Key Research Program of China launched a project in July, 2016. The main research themes of this project cover: ①Revealing the spatial and temporal variability of the global warming hiatus, and quantifying the contributions of external forcing and internal (natural) variability, respectively; ②Revealing the role of the atmosphere in the global heat and energy redistribution under global warming hiatus; ③Revealing the role of the ocean in the global heat and energy redistribution under global warming hiatus; ④Investigating the predictability of the global warming hiatus. The key scientific issues to be resolved include: ①Identifying characteristics of the global warming hiatus and discerning the roles of decadal, multi-decadal oscillations; ②Revealing the role of ocean-atmosphere dynamical processes in the global redistribution of heat and energy; ③Understanding the predictability of the global warming hiatus. The research aims to predict the future development of the global warming hiatus, and to point out the possible impacts on China and other important areas, including “The Belt and Road” core area and the Polar Regions.     

On the variation of frequency-based rainfall amounts: a case study for evaluating recent extreme rainfalls in Korea

Extreme rainfall events recently occurring in Korea have been shown to change frequency-based rainfall amounts quite significantly. Regardless of the reason for these extremes, the general concern of most hydrologists is how to handle these events for practical applications in Hydrology. Our study aim is to evaluate these extremes with their effect on frequency-based rainfall amounts, especially if they can be assumed to be within normal levels. As there is no commonly accepted methodology to be applied to this kind of study, we follow simplified steps such as: (1) estimation of the climatological variance of frequency-based rainfall amounts, (2) estimation of confidence intervals of frequency-based rainfall amounts (lower and upper bounds for the 5 and 1% significance levels estimated using the climatological variance), and (3) evaluation of the effect of extra rainfall events on the frequency-based rainfall amounts. Twelve stations on the Korean peninsula are selected as they have relatively longer data length. The annual maximum rainfall data collected from 1954 to 1998 are used. From this study we concluded that (1) at least 30 years of data length should be used for the frequency analysis in order to assure the stability of the variance of frequency-based rainfall amounts, (2) the climatological variances estimated all range from 5 to 8% of the frequency-based rainfall amounts, and (3) even though the frequency-based rainfall amount seems to become extreme with seemingly abnormal events, it still remains under its upper bound for the 5 or 1% significance levels estimated using the climatological variance, as well as it decays exponentially to the normal level as extra events are added. Thus, we conclude that we do not need to panic over seemingly abnormal events occurring so far, but just need to consider the variability inherent in frequency-based rainfall amounts.     

南北半球平均温度年代际振荡的非均衡性及其对变暖显著性的影响

利用先进的信号检测技术——多窗谱方法(MTM),对1856-1998年的南、北半球月平均温度序列进行多种信号的检测、重构,系统对比了年代际振荡信号在南北半球、海陆表面及不同季节的差异,进而研究其对变暖显著性的影响。结果表明近150年来,南北半球平均温度变率中,变暖趋势占主导地位。但北半球年平均温度的变暖背景上还叠加着显著的40年、60-70年的准周期振荡,导致其线性增暖的显著性、稳定性都较南半球低,夏季尤为明显。海陆对比,海洋上年代际振荡信号较陆地明显,线性增温率略低于陆地,但稳定性较高。值得注意的是,年代际振荡信号已在20世纪90年代中达到峰值,近期已开始下降,这有可能影响北半球未来气候增暖的速率。同时通过对海气耦合模式数值模拟结果的初步分析,表明观测到的增暖趋势与海气系统内部的自然变率无关,年代际振荡可能是海气系统的固有振荡。     

青藏高原多年冻土区路基工程地质研究

回顾了青藏高原多年冻土区近年来所开展的路基工程地质研究工作,指出冻土工程地质勘探在方法上有很大进展,总结出了一整套冻土区工程地质勘察的暂行规定和细则.近年来的工作特别注重了对冻土地温和含冰量的研究,这是冻土工程地质中特有的十分重要的参数.在大量观测试验的基础上,总结出了有关路基稳定性的若干重要结论.据此提出,在气候转暖的背景下,高温冻土区筑路必须采用"冷却路基"的方法.为寻求气候转暖的对策,冻土工程地质预报的研究也取得了很大的进展,对冻土区路基工程地质的研究方向提出了新的建议.     

Seasonal and Diurnal Ozone Variations: Observations and Modeling

Ozone mixing ratios observed by the Bordeaux microwave radiometer between 1995 and 2002 in an altitude range 25–75 km show diurnal variations in the mesosphere and seasonal variations in terms of annual and semi-annual oscillations (SAO) in the stratosphere and in the mesosphere. The observations with 10–15 km altitude resolution are presented and compared to photochemical and transport model results.Diurnal ozone variations are analyzed by averaging the years 1995–1997 for four representative months and six altitude levels. The photochemical models show a good agreement with the observations for altitudes higher than 50 km. Seasonal ozone variations mainly appear as an annual cycle in the middle and upper stratosphere and a semi-annual cycle in the mesosphere with amplitude and phase depending on altitude. Higher resolution (2 km) HALOE (halogen occultation experiment) ozone observations show a phase reversal of the SAO between 44 and 64 km. In HALOE data, a tendancy for an opposite water vapour cycle can be identified in the altitude range 40–60 km.Generally, the relative variations at all altitudes are well explained by the transport model (up to 54 km) and the photochemical models. Only a newly developed photochemical model (1-D) with improved time-dependent treatment of water vapour profiles and solar flux manages to reproduce fairly well the absolute values.     

EFFECT OF TEMPERATURE UNDER UNFAVOURABLE CONDITIONS ON OXYGEN UPTAKE OF LARVAL HERRING,CLUPEA HARENGUS

Oxygen uptake under starvation and short periods of sudden temperature change was measured forlarval herring (Clupea harengus L.) reared at average temperature of 7.3, 11 and 12.9℃. Larval stagesbetween first feeding and premetamorphosis were used. For comparison, the routine oxygen uptake(ROU) was also investigated and followed the relationship Q=0.974+0. 174 tW~(0.210), where Q is in μg/(mg·h), W is dry body weight in mg and t is temperature in ℃. The oxygen uptake under starvation(SOU, deprived of food for 24 h) was different from the routine when the larval dry weightwas less than 0.6-0.8 mg, it increased with temperature and body weight giving the reationship Q=1.568+0.110 tW~(0.380), if the larval dry weight mp more than 0.6-0.8 mg, it reverted to the norm(Q=1.704+0.078 tW~(-0.349)). The oxygen uptake was tested in short periods (3 h) of sudden temperaturechanges in six groups: 7.3 to 11, 7.3 to 12.9, 11 to 7.3. 11 to 12.9, 12.9 to 7.3 and 1.29 to11℃. The oxygen uptake in the 7.3 to 12.9 and 1     

Greenhouse gas emissions from a managed grassland

Managed grasslands contribute to global warming by the exchange of the greenhouse gases carbon dioxide, nitrous oxide and methane. To reduce uncertainties of the global warming potential of European grasslands and to assess potential mitigation options, an integrated approach quantifying fluxes from all three gases is needed. Greenhouse gas emissions from a grassland site in the SE of Scotland were measured in 2002 and 2003. Closed static chambers were used for N₂O and CH₄ flux measurements, and samples were analysed by gas chromatography. Closed dynamic chambers were used for soil respiration measurements, using infrared gas analysis. Three organic manures and two inorganic fertilizers were applied at a rate of 300 kg N ha⁻¹ a⁻¹ (available N) and compared with a zero-N control on grassland plots in a replicated experimental design. Soil respiration from plots receiving manure was up to 1.6 times larger than CO₂ release from control plots and up to 1.7 times larger compared to inorganic treatments (p<0.05). A highly significant (p<0.001) effect of fertilizer and manure treatments on N₂O release was observed. Release of N₂O from plots receiving inorganic fertilizers resulted in short term peaks of up to 388 g N₂O–N ha⁻¹ day⁻¹. However losses from plots receiving organic manures were both longer lasting and greater in magnitude, with an emission of up to 3488 g N₂O–N ha⁻¹ day⁻¹ from the sewage sludge treatments. During the 2002 growing season the cumulative total N₂O flux from manure treatments was 25 times larger than that from mineral fertilizers. CH₄ emissions were only significantly increased (p<0.001) for a short period following applications of cattle slurry. Although soil respiration in manure plots was high, model predictions and micrometeorological flux measurements at an adjacent site suggest that all plots receiving fertilizer or manure acted as a sink for CO₂. Therefore in terms of global warming potentials the contribution of N₂O from manure treatments becomes particularly important. There were considerable variations in N₂O and CO₂ fluxes between years, which was related to annual variations in soil temperature and rainfall.     

Influences of local factors on permafrost occurrence and their implications for Qinghai-Xizang Railway design

Permafrost is a product of long-term energy ex-change between the atmosphere and the ground. Macro-scale distribution of permafrost is controlled overall by climate. However, site-specific variables such as terrain conditions, snow cover, soil/rock type, and moisture content can significantly modify the ef-fect of climate, resulting in localized anomalies in permafrost distribution[1,2]. These factors cause distur-bances to normal thermal regimes and can determine the presence and absence of p…     

“Global warming” versus “climate change”: A replication on the association between political self-identification,question wording,and environmental beliefs

Climate change is one of the greatest threats to humanity and requires immediate action. Schuldt, Konrath, and Schwarz (2011) suggested that beliefs in environmental phenomena can be influenced by the terminology used to describe it: changing question wording from global warming to climate change resulted in a 6.3 percentage point increase in belief in environmental phenomena. This association was moderated by political self-identification, with Republicans being 16.2 percentage points more likely to believe in climate change than in global warming, with Democrats showing no difference. The potential for connotative meanings to shift over time and the sociopolitical changes since the original study, potential policy and environmental campaign implications, and an expansion of these findings to other countries, motivated an attempt to replicate this important finding. This pre-registered study repeated the original procedures in the United States of America and two other countries (United Kingdom and Australia; total N = 5,717). Although question wording no longer had a significant effect on beliefs in climate change/global warming, the association of political self-identification with beliefs in environmental phenomena replicated in all three countries, with Conservatives consistently believing less in climate change/global warming than Liberals. The potential impacts of temporal and methodological differences on the discrepancies between this study's and the original's findings are discussed.     

近50年新疆温度降水配置演变及其尺度特征

用小波多分辨分析方法研究近20年新疆出现的高温多雨型气候的时间尺度特征及其演变趋势。新疆近55年温度和降水的小波功率谱分析显示,二者在年际尺度上都有2—4和6—8 a的显著周期分量,在年代际尺度上有准16 a周期;但它们的时间演变和时间平均谱都存在差异,导致温度和降水配置演变比较复杂,呈现非平稳性。正交小波分解证实,温度和降水年际变化的高频部分具有显著的负相关,除个别几年外几乎都是高温少雨或低温多雨配置;在年际变化的低频部分,即6—8 a尺度部分,高温少雨/低温多雨及高温多雨/低温少雨配置交替出现,55a平均而言二者相关性不显著。在年代际以上尺度,二者的能量主要集中在约50 a以上尺度部分,16—32 a尺度部分方差贡献很小。在降水和温度时间序列中去除趋势后发现,50 a以上尺度部分具有稳定的高温多雨/低温少雨配置。因此,近20年新疆高温多雨型气候的出现主要是二者50—60 a尺度成分的正位相和线性增加趋势部分叠加形成的,其中降水主要是年代际尺度成分的贡献,温度主要是线性增暖趋势即全球变暖的影响结果。