中国贝类养殖对海洋碳循环的贡献评估

造成全球暖化的主要原因是温室气体的过量排放,其中CO2的贡献率达60 %,贝类养殖具有碳沉积作用。依据农业部渔业局编制的《中国渔业统计年签》,以2001年到2010年的年平均产量计算贝类捕获和养殖的碳沉积能力,并评估其碳沉积潜力;计算牡蛎、蛤、扇贝与贻贝四种贝壳单位面积的碳沉积能力并与森林、珊瑚礁的碳沉积能力进行比较分析。本文对我国浅海贝类养殖所具有的碳沉积能力进行评估,以了解贝类养殖对海洋碳循环的贡献,可为争取国家碳份额的合法权益提供基础数据。分析表明我国近十年贝类总产量稳定在1100万吨以上,并有增加的趋势,其中海水养殖贝类约占87.34 %。贝类养殖和捕获总产量的碳沉积和海水养殖产量的碳沉积量分别为58.57、51.15万吨/年,碳沉积能力分别相当于122.28、106.78万公顷的造林,可分别减少大气CO2增加量的0.0125 %、0.0109 %。牡蛎、蛤、扇贝与贻贝的单位面积碳沉积速率分别为1.573、0.388、0.301、1.039吨碳/(公顷?年);牡蛎和贻贝高于森林的碳沉积能力0.479吨碳/(公顷?年);但低于珊瑚礁的碳沉积能力1.8吨碳/(公顷?年)。我国贝类淡、海水养殖产量可分别创造约268.4万元/年、12,711.2万元/年的碳权商机。     

Effects of meridional sea surface temperature changes on stratospheric temperature and circulation

Using a state-of-the-art chemistry-climate model,we analyzed the atmospheric responses to increases in sea surface temperature （SST）.The results showed that increases in SST and the SST meridional gradient could intensify the subtropical westerly jets and significantly weaken the northern polar vortex.In the model runs,global uniform SST increases produced a more significant impact on the southern stratosphere than the northern stratosphere,while SST gradient increases produced a more significant impact on the northern stratosphere.The asymmetric responses of the northern and southern polar stratosphere to SST meridional gradient changes were found to be mainly due to different wave properties and transmissions in the northern and southern atmosphere.Although SST increases may give rise to stronger waves,the results showed that the effect of SST increases on the vertical propagation of tropospheric waves into the stratosphere will vary with height and latitude and be sensitive to SST meridional gradient changes.Both uniform and non-uniform SST increases accelerated the large-scale Brewer-Dobson circulation （BDC）,but the gradient increases of SST between 60°S and 60°N resulted in younger mean age-of-air in the stratosphere and a larger increase in tropical upwelling,with a much higher tropopause than from a global uniform 1.0 K SST increase.     

Chinese Contribution to CMIP5：An Overview of Five Chinese Models’Performances

An overview of Chinese contribution to Coupled Model Intercomparison Project-Phase 5 （CMIP5） is presented. The performances of five Chinese Climate/Earth System Models that participated in the CMIP5 pro ject are assessed in the context of climate mean states, seasonal cycle, intraseasonal oscillation, interan-nual variability, interdecadal variability, global monsoon, Asian-Australian monsoon, 20th-century historical climate simulation, climate change pro jection, and climate sensitivity. Both the strengths and weaknesses of the models are evaluated. The models generally show reasonable performances in simulating sea surface tem-perature （SST） mean state, seasonal cycle, spatial patterns of Madden-Julian oscillation （MJO） amplitude and tropical cyclone Genesis Potential Index （GPI）, global monsoon precipitation pattern, El Ni-no-Southern Oscillation （ENSO）, and Pacific Decadal Oscillation （PDO） related SST anomalies. However, the perfor-mances of the models in simulating the time periods, amplitude, and phase locking of ENSO, PDO time periods, GPI magnitude, MJO propagation, magnitude of SST seasonal cycle, northwestern Pacific mon-soon and North American monsoon domains, as well as the skill of large-scale Asian monsoon precipitation need to be improved. The model performances in simulating the time evolution and spatial pattern of the 20th-century global warming and the future change under representative concentration pathways pro jection are compared to the multimodel ensemble of CMIP5 models. The model discrepancies in terms of climate sensitivity are also discussed.     

论气候变暖背景下干旱和干旱灾害风险特征与管理策略简

The drought is a most severe natural disaster worldwide, which leads to great risk in human being. The drought disaster and risk have more prominent because of obvious climatic warming in the last hundred years. At present, the understanding of the internal laws of the occurrence of drought and drought risk is not comprehensive, and the recognition of the characteristics of the drought and drought risk under climatic warming is obscure. In this paper, we summarized systematically the domestic and overseas research progress of the drought and drought disaster risk, introduced the principle of the drought disaster transfer process and the essential features of drought disaster, analyzed synthetically the main characteristics and interactions among the key factors of the drought disaster risk, discussed the effect of climatic warming on drought and drought disaster risk, and probed into the basic requirement of drought disaster risk management. Above all, we provide the main protective measurements of the drought disaster and the main strategy of drought disaster risk management.     

Studies on the Coral Reefs of the South China Sea: From Global Change to Oil-Gas Exploration

Studies on the coral reefs of the South China Sea (SCS) was the theme of the 6th Session of the 3rd Conference on Earth System Science (CESS) in Shanghai, 2014. This session discussed the most recent study developments on the SCS coral reefs, including coral reefs’ responses to global changes, coral reefs’ records on past climatic variations, and the activities about constructions and oil gas explorations in the coral reefs areas of the SCS. Disturbed by intensive anthropogenic activities and global climate warming, coral reefs in the SCS have declined dramatically, reflecting the up to 80% decrease of living coral cover and many areas having less than 20% of living coral cover. Geochemical data of SCS coral skeletons clearly show that since the Industry Revolution, the pollution situation of the SCS have dramatically increased and the seawater pH values have been continuously lowering, i.e. oceanic acidification. All these environmental phenomenon are further stressing the healthy development of the coral reef ecosystem in the SCS. Meanwhile, the poor coral reef ecosystems in the SCS are facing more anthropogenic disturbances such as coastal developments and engineering constructions. Obviously, the SCS coral reefs will be faced with more environmental challenges in the coming future. We therefore suggest that the policy makers should realize the extreme importance and the fragile of the coral reef ecosystems, and scientifically and with great cautions design construction project when in coral reef areas. We initiated the concept of “green engineering” for future developments in coral reef areas. Coral reefs are widely spreading in the whole SCS, and most of them developed since Miocene. Variations in coral reef structures provide good future oil-gas exploration. Because the SCS coral reefs have a long-developing history and a wide spatial distribution, they provide great potential in recording past environmental changes.     

全新世温度研究回顾及对历史人地关系的启示

最新一些研究结果强调了全新世期间的长期增温趋势,综合全球平均海平面、大陆冰盖面积、大气温室气体和太阳辐射证据来看,这比传统观点所认为的全新世期间的长期降温趋势,更具有合理性。回顾历史,结合最新的一些研究进展,发现支持“中全新世大暖期”和“晚全新世降温趋势”的证据存在明显的不确定性,最核心的问题为晚全新世加强的人类活动对代用指标或者证据的强烈扰动,使得其不能准确地反映真实的气候变化过程。鉴于目前全新世温度历史争论的核心关键在于晚全新世,因此有必要加强晚全新世温度变化研究。在人类活动影响较小的地区,或者利用对人类活动不敏感的代用指标开展研究,有望可以获得更可靠的晚全新世温度历史重建结果,为准确认识中华数千年文明的长期温度变化背景,进而理解期间的“人地关系”演化历史,并最终客观认识现今面临的以全球变暖为主要特征的气候环境问题,提供一定的科学基础。     

短期增温和降水减少对沙质草地土壤微生物量碳氮和酶活性的影响

通过模拟气候变化,探究短期增温和降水减少对沙质草地土壤微生物量碳氮及酶活性的影响,揭示沙质草地土壤微生物量碳氮和酶活性对短期气候变化的响应规律。结果表明：（1）短期增温和降水减少对土壤微生物量碳氮和酶活性均产生显著影响。（2）在自然温度下,与自然降水相比,降水减少40%时土壤微生物量碳（MBC）和微生物氮（MBN）含量最高,增幅分别为87.9%和98.8%;降水减少60%时土壤碱性蛋白酶（S-ALPT）活性最低,降幅达32.8%。（3）在增温条件下,与自然降水相比,降水减少40%时土壤MBC和MBN含量最低,降幅分别为25.67%和48.16%,土壤脲酶（S-UE）活性最高,增幅20.42%。（4）土壤pH与3种土壤酶活性正相关,与土壤微生物量碳氮负相关。土壤微生物量碳氮与土壤纤维素酶（S-CL）活性负相关,与S-UE、S-ALPT活性正相关。     

气候变暖对湖泊热力及溶解氧分层影响研究进展

气候变暖对湖泊物理、化学、生物和生态系统有着复杂而深刻的直接和间接影响,而具体影响随研究区域和水体表现不尽相同。气候变暖通过改变湖泊热力和溶解氧分层进而影响湖泊生物过程和生态系统结构与功能。从全球湖泊变暖趋势、长期缓慢气温上升、极端高温事件以及气候情景模拟等方面详细综述了气候变暖对湖泊热力及溶解氧分层影响的研究进展。研究表明,全球不同区域湖泊均存在不同程度的变暖趋势;长期缓慢气温上升和短期极端高温均会造成湖泊热力分层提前,分层结束推迟,分层时间延长,混合层和温跃层深度下降,以及热稳定性增加;相伴随的是溶解氧扩散深度和氧跃层深度明显下降,加剧了湖泊底部好氧和厌氧环境。除了这种直接影响外,气候变暖引起的流域降水、入湖物质的变化以及风速的变化也会对湖泊热力和溶解氧分层产生许多间接的影响,因此未来仍然需要更多的实验证据、经验和数值模型来验证和预测气候变暖对湖泊热力及溶解氧分层的影响。     

汶川大型地震滑坡的类型及启程剧动机理研究

2008年汶川大地震诱发大型地震滑坡300余处,造成了巨大的生命财产损失,研究其发生机理有重要的理论意义和防灾减灾的实用价值.经收集分析已有地震滑坡的研究成果及多次深入现场调查,本文发现众多大型地震滑坡发生时都伴随有区别于汶川主震的地面震动,并将其称为滑坡地面震动,简称滑坡震动.本文在论述滑坡震动依据、成因及特征的基础上,根据滑坡震动力与主震力的组合情况及其对大型地震滑坡的影响不同,将汶川地震滑坡划分为3种类型:主震型地震滑坡,迟震型地震滑坡和同震型地震滑坡.认为主震型地震滑坡在主震结束前滑动,其主导失稳力学因素为主震力和重力,无滑坡震动或可忽略; 同震型地震滑坡亦在主震结束前滑动,但其主导失稳力学因素除主震力和重力外,滑坡震动力起重要作用; 迟震型地震滑坡在主震结束后滑动,主导失稳力学因素为滑坡震动力和重力.认为大型地震滑坡地面震动的发生与活断层导致地震类似,据此提出了滑坡震动加速度的估算方法,并以此为基础分析研究了各类型地震滑坡的启程剧动机理.     

1953～2017年黄河源区气温变化的多尺度特征

基于黄河源区8个站点的年平均气温序列,利用集合经验模态分解（Ensemble Empirical Mode Decomposition,EEMD）方法,揭示了以玛多站为代表的黄河源区1953~2017年气温演变的多时间尺度特征,探讨不同时间尺度上的周期振荡对气温变化总体特征的影响程度,分析了黄河源区不同时间尺度的气温变化与海温指数,尤其是与北大西洋多年代际振荡（Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation,AMO）间的关系。结果表明:（1）1953年以来黄河源区玛多站年平均气温以0.31 ℃/10 a的变化率表现为明显的增暖趋势,20世纪80年代后期开始转暖,尤其是进入20世纪90年代后期变暖更加明显。（2）1953~2017年,黄河源区年平均气温呈现3 a、6 a、11 a、25 a、64 a及65 a以上时间尺度的准周期变化,其中以准3 a和65 a以上时间尺度的振荡最显著,准3 a的年际振荡在21世纪以前振幅较大,而进入21世纪后年际振荡振幅减弱,65 a以上时间尺度的年代际振荡振幅明显加大。（3）1998年气候显著变暖以前,以准3 a周期为代表的年际振荡在气温演变过程中占据主导地位,1998年气候显著变暖以后,65 a以上时间尺度周期振荡的贡献率增加近5倍,与准3 a周期振荡的贡献相当。（4）气温与Nino3.4指数和PDO（Pacific Decadal Oscillation）指数的同期相关均不显著,但当气温领先PDO指数22 a时正相关最大且显著,不同于PDO指数,气温原始序列及其3个年代际尺度分量滞后AMO指数3~7 a或二者同期时相关性最高,这就意味着AMO对黄河源区气温具有显著影响。（5）AMO的正暖位相对应着包括中国的整个东亚地区偏暖,黄河源区只是受影响区域的一部分,20世纪60年代至90年代初期AMO的负冷位相期、20世纪90年代中后期至今AMO的正暖位相与黄河源区气温距平序列的负距平、正距平相对应,气温在65 a以上时间尺度的变化与AMO指数相关性更高,可见,AMO是影响黄河源区气温变化的一个重要的气候振荡,这种影响主要表现在年代际时间尺度上。