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71.
气候变化对中国木本植物物候的可能影响 总被引:76,自引:1,他引:76
本文根据我国的30年的物候资料和气候资料的统计分析,论证了气温是影响中国木本植物物候的主要因子,在此基础上建立了物候与年平均气温的线性统计模式,又利用此模式分析计算了未来全球年平均气温升高0.5-2.0℃和未来大气中CO2浓度倍增而增暖情况下,我国主要木本植物物候期的大致变幅。 相似文献
72.
全球增暖下我国旱涝灾害可能情景的初步研究 总被引:6,自引:0,他引:6
在全球变暖的情况下,我国东南沿海、西南、西北、内蒙古和东北部分地区,洪涝灾害可能增加;而黄河中游以南和华北平原干旱可能增加.这一变化特征与本世纪暖期降水分布变化,以及与CO_2倍增情况下气候模似结果基本一致. 相似文献
73.
74.
文章对近年来有关全球气候变暖中一些问题的研究进展作了总结,主要结论如下:全球平均地面气温在过去一百年来上升0.5℃。80年代是近百年来最暖的10年。90年代初继续变暖。1990年是近百年来最暖的一年。1991年仅次於1990年。但是近百年气候变暖的幅度仍未超过自然变率。近千年中,中世纪暖期(900—1300年)的温暖程度就可能与20世纪相当,而小冰期(1550—1850年)气温则可能比20世纪低1.0—1.5℃。已经证实,对几十年到几百年尺度,太阳活动强时太阳总辐射也强,但变化幅度尚待进一步确定。强火山爆 相似文献
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77.
Klaus Wege 《Journal of Atmospheric Chemistry》1991,12(4):381-390
On 1 February 1989, -83.5°C was recorded in 27.8 hPa over Hohenpeißenberg, the lowest temperature in the 22-year series. This was measured together with a very low total ozone amount of 266 DU. This may be compared with nearly twice this amount on 27 February 1989. The situation was very unusual: following an extremely cold winter in the Arctic stratosphere, the stratospheric cold pole was located over southern Scandinavia on 1 February in a very southerly position. The analyzed temperatures of -92 °C in 30 hPa were also unusual. Even though the low ozone amounts over Hohenpeißenberg were probably dynamically caused, an additional very small ozone decrease due to heterogeneous reactions in altitudes from 23–28 km, where the temperatures lie below -80 °C, cannot be ruled out. Extinction measurements by the orbitting SAGE II instrument indeed show polar stratospheric clouds over Europe near 50° N during the period 31 January–2 February. Also, polar stratospheric clouds were previously observed over Kiruna at similarly low temperatures and signs of a corresponding small ozone decrease were noted there. 相似文献
78.
Xue Xi Tie Guy Brasseur Xing Lin Pierre Friedlingstein Claire Granier Philip Rasch 《Journal of Atmospheric Chemistry》1994,18(2):103-128
The paper discusses the potential effects on the ozone layer of gases released by the engines of proposed high altitude supersonic aircraft. The major problem arises from the emissions of nitrogen oxides which have the potential to destroy significant quantities of ozone in the stratosphere. The magnitude of the perturbation is highly dependent on the cruise altitude of the aircraft. Furthermore, the depletion of ozone is substantially reduced when heterogeneous conversion of nitrogen oxides into nitric acid on sulfate aerosol particles is taken into account in the calculation. The sensitivity of the aerosol load on stratospheric ozone is investigated. First, the model indicates that the aerosol load induced by the SO2 released by aircraft is increased by about 10–20% above the background aerosols at mid-high latitude of the Northern Hemisphere at 15 km for the NASA emission scenario A (the NASA emission scenarios are explained in Tables I to III). This increase in aerosol has small effects on stratospheric ozone. Second, when the aerosol load is increased following a volcanic eruption similar to the eruption of El Chichon (Mexico, April 1982), the ozone column in spring increases by as much as 9% in response to the injection of NO
x
from the aircraft with the NASA emission scenario A. Finally, the modeled suggests that significant ozone depletion could result from the formation of additional polar stratospheric clouds produced by the injection of H2O and HNO3 by the aircraft engines. 相似文献
79.
使用辐射对流模式,研究了中纬度冬季气温对于CO2浓度变化的敏感性。结果表明:气温变幅随CO2浓度渐增呈现先快后慢的非线性特征;气温变幅具有一定的稳定性。 相似文献
80.
Richard B. Rood 《Pure and Applied Geophysics》1985,123(5):733-755
The concept of planetary wave breaking (McIntyre andPalmer, 1983; 1984) is critically reviewed. It is concluded that the wave breaking signature is not unique to any particular dynamic event in the stratosphere. Therefore, the classification of stratospheric transport events, such as wave breaking, groups fundamentally different events together. Better qualification of the wave breaking signature and a more solid theoretical basis of planetary wave breaking must be presented if the concept is to be of significant utility in describing stratospheric tracer transport. 相似文献