环渤海区域旅游非均衡发展时空特征研究

受资源禀赋、地理区位、经济水平等因素的影响,环渤海区域旅游发展水平不尽相同,非均衡性问题日益突显,且差距有拉大的趋势。空间自相关是一种空间统计分析方法,旨在探索旅游要素的空间分布规律和作用机制。根据2004—2013年的数据,计算环渤海地区的接待入境旅游人数、国际旅游外汇收入、国内旅游人数、国内旅游收入4组全局Moran’s I值,分析该时期环渤海区域旅游空间集聚演变过程。在局部空间自相关方面,选取2013年截面数据,通过Moran散点图和LISA分析,探究环渤海区域旅游发展相关程度和集聚情况,为区域旅游发展政策制定提供决策依据。     

Coupling of a simultaneous heat and water model with a distributed hydrological model and evaluation of the combined model in a cold region watershed

Snow and frozen soil prevail in cold regions worldwide, and the integration of these processes is crucial in hydrological models. In this study, a combined model was developed by fully coupling a simultaneous heat and water model with a geomorphologically based distributed hydrological model. The combined model simulates vertical and lateral water transfer as well as vertical heat fluxes and is capable of representing the effects of frozen soil and snowmelt on hydrological processes in cold regions. This model was evaluated by using in situ observations in the Binggou watershed, an experimental watershed for cold region hydrology of the Watershed Allied Telemetry Experimental Research Project. Results showed that the model was able to predict soil freezing and thawing, unfrozen soil water content, and snow depth reasonably well. The simulated hydrograph was in good agreement with the in situ observation. The Nash–Sutcliffe coefficient of daily discharge was 0.744 for the entire simulation period, 0.472 from April to June, and 0.711 from June to November. This model can improve our understanding of hydrological processes in cold regions and assess the impacts of global warming on hydrological cycles and water resources. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

亚太地区油气成藏条件及资源潜力

亚太地区是全球重要的油气产区和最大的油气消费市场。亚太地区155个主要沉积盆地中,已有90多个盆地内发现了油气田或有油气发现,共发现油气田约6 900个。根据地理位置及构造特征等,亚太地区可进一步分为东亚分区、东南亚分区、澳新分区和南亚分区,约有131个主要的含油气系统。本文对亚太地区不同分区的油气成藏条件(包括烃源岩、储集层、盖层、含油气系统等)进行了总体分析与高度概括。在此基础上,以成藏组合为基本评价单元,不同勘探程度盆地采用与之相适应的评价方法,对本地区各盆地的油气资源潜力进行了评价。评价结果表明:亚太地区常规总油气可采资源量为673.7×10⁸ t油当量,占全球的6.1%,非常规油气资源类型以重油、页岩油、油页岩、页岩气、煤层气为主,非常规油气技术总可采资源量390.4×10⁸ t当量,占全球非常规油气技术总可采资源量的6.1%。根据待发现资源结果及盆地勘探程度,近海和深海勘探是将来的勘探热点:主要勘探领域为深海和成熟盆地新层系及岩性-地层圈闭等;海相三角洲体系是寻找天然气田的重要领域;东南亚弧后盆地群新生界湖相是页岩油的有利勘探领域;澳大利亚中部克拉通盆地群泥盆系-石炭系为页岩气的有利勘探领域。     

云南九顶山正长斑岩年代学、岩石地球化学及Sr-Nd-Hf同位素特征

九顶山复式岩体沿北西向金沙江–红河断裂与南北向程海断裂交汇处发育,处于南北地洼区与滇西地洼区接触带,是滇西地洼期斑岩成矿带中段的代表性富碱斑岩体之一。该岩体由呈岩株、岩脉、岩墙或岩床等产出的斑状花岗岩、正长斑岩、(二长)花岗斑岩、碱长花岗斑岩和煌斑岩等组成。本文着重对正长斑岩的形成年代、岩石地球化学和成因特征开展研究,结果表明:正长斑岩的LA-ICP-MS锆石U-Pb年龄为34.6±0.7 Ma,即岩浆侵位于始新世(E2),属滇西地洼激烈期及新生代富碱岩浆活动高峰期(45~30 Ma)的产物;岩石具高硅(Si O256%)、高钾(K2O=3.38%~8.92%,K2O/Na2O1)、富碱(ALK=8.15%~11.15%)和低Mg O(3%)的特征,属钾玄岩系列–高钾钙碱性系列过铝质(A/CNK=0.71~1.22)花岗岩;在微量元素组成上,岩石高Sr(400×10-6)、低Y(18×10-6)和Yb(1.9×10-6),与陆内造山环境形成的"C型"钾质埃达克岩地球化学特征类似;全岩的Sr-Nd-Hf同位素组成特征显示岩浆源区是壳幔物质混合的"EMII型"富集地幔源。正长斑岩的形成应与印度–欧亚板块碰撞俯冲背景下,金沙江–红河断裂大规模左行走滑引起的热扰动和局部引张作用有关,在这种区域热–动力学条件下,地幔部分熔融与地壳物质发生混合作用,形成活化型壳幔混合源高钾富碱岩浆。     

利用前兆事件对云南地区地震进行中短期预测研究

对某些类型的主震事件, 进行中短期预测也许是可能的. 利用Varnes, Bufe和Varnes提出的破裂时间法模拟前兆地震能量加速释放模型,通过实际观测资料与理论公式的拟合, 可以建立主地震事件的中短期预测技术, 用以确定表示主震的地点、时间和震级大小. 本文使用的是云南区域台网的地震目录资料,覆盖的时间段为1965~2002年. 统计分析表明,在此37年时间内,等于或大于2.5级地震资料是相当完整的. 本文对云南地区的30次主震事件进行了模拟,其中25次主震事件由前兆序列模拟得到的预测时间和震级与实际值相当接近,主震震级预测精度约0.57个震级单位,假定已知前兆序列中最后一次事件,则预测主震发生时间误差约0.64年.对另外的5次主震事件,由于没有足够的前兆事件来充分确定前兆能量加速曲线或是存在对能量加速释放曲线的干扰事件,而不能进行破裂时间法模拟.本文的研究结果还表明,由于云南是破坏性地震和中小地震活跃的地区,因此,主地震与前兆事件最佳搜索半径不存在明显的线性关系.主震矩与系数k,m之间存在强烈的相关性,利用主震地震矩与系数的关系和限制指数m的取值范围,可进一步缩小预测时间和预测震级的最佳拟合区范围,提高了模拟主震事件的预测精度. 本文采用破裂时间法对30次主震事件进行拟合,80％以上获得了较好的结果. 显示出该方法在预测已知主震事件序列的能力方面大有希望,因此,利用前兆事件对未来主震事件进行中短期预测的前景是令人鼓舞的.     

The contribution of nano- and micro-planktonic assemblages in the surface layer (0-30 m) under different hydrographic conditions in the upwelling area off Concepción, central Chile

In the highly productive region off central Chile, the structure and temporal and spatial variability of planktonic assemblages, and the factors that determine changes in this structure are poorly understood. In the region, wind-driven upwelling, heating by solar radiation and freshwater inputs are highly seasonal processes, which, together with higher frequency events, can promote changes in the planktonic communities, especially in the upper layer. This study focuses on the structure of nano- through to micro-planktonic assemblages (2-200 μm) of unicellular organisms (protists) in surface waters (0-30 m) during different hydrographic conditions. Samples were taken from a fixed shelf station off Concepción (COPAS time series Station 18) on eight occasions between September 2003 and August 2004. The nano-plankton flagellate-dominated fraction was numerically important during the whole period. Maxima in flagellate abundance and biomass occurred during the upwelling period (November-April samplings) but these maxima appear to be unrelated to the degree of water column stratification. The micro-plankton diatom-dominated fraction was usually the largest component in terms of biomass during the study period and the diatoms made important numerical contributions during the upwelling period, with maxima in abundance and biomass when water column stability was lowest. The dominant genera and morphotypes in each functional group were found throughout the study period, with maxima in abundance and biomass co-occurring under similar environmental upwelling conditions. The mean macro-nutrient concentrations (nitrate and silicate) were relatively high in the top 30 m during both upwelling and non-upwelling periods, and did not explain the maxima in plankton or functional group replacements. The persistence of the dominant taxa in the planktonic assemblages suggests a high degree of flexibility, though probably not at the specific level, to withstand the highly variable environmental conditions in this upwelling area.     

唐山滦县震区的三维地震透射研究──中、上地壳速度层析成像

利用布设在唐山滦县震区３０ｋｍ×４０ｋｍ范围内的由８８台数字和模拟地震仪组成的临时台阵，接收来自不同方向６个炮点激发产生的莫霍界面反射波走时，重建了台阵下１-９ｋｍ深度的Ｐ，Ｓ波速度和Ｖ_ｐ／Ｖ_ｓ图像．结果表明。中、上地壳结构存在明显的横向不均匀性．北北东走向的滦县-卢龙断裂自地表向下至少延伸到８ｋｍ深度处，并向北西方向倾斜．中、上地壳存在着近东西向的低速异常条带．这两组构造控制着该区的地震活动．     

Seismicity before and after the two great Sumatra earthquakes of 2004 and 2005

The Harvard CMT catalogue contains 481 shallow earthquakes that occurred between 1 January 1977 and 30 November 2005 within a broad region defined by the geographical latitude from 3°S to 14°N and by the longitude from 91°E to 102°E. There are 230 events that occurred before the great earthquake of 26 December 2004. Their surface distribution is not uniform and the source area of the 2004 great event appears as an area of seismic quiescence with a radius of about 100 km. There are 186 events that occurred between the two great earthquakes of 26 December 2004 and 28 March 2005. Practically all of them are located to the northwest from the great earthquake of 2005, that in turn was followed by 63 events, mostly located to the southeast. The cumulative seismic moment from earthquakes before the occurrence of the great event of 2004 increased rather regularly with time, with sudden increase about twenty years and two years before the occurrence of the great event. The seismic moment of earthquakes between the two great events increased rapidly during the first ten-fifteen days, then flattened out and increased slowly with time. After the great event of 2005 the seismic moment shows quiet increase during some 115 days, then sudden jump, followed by very small activity till the end of our observations. From the spatial distribution of seismic moment of earthquakes that occurred before the great event of 2004 it follows that its largest release appeared to the southeast from the great event, around the rupture area of the great earthquake of 2005. The largest release of seismic moment from earthquakes between the two great events is observed in the vicinity of the 2004 event and further up to the north. The seismic moment from earthquakes that occurred after the great event of 2005 was mostly released in its vicinity and further down to the south.     

基于RAGA的PPC模型在化探异常分析中的应用——以凤太矿集区为例

化探数据处理的核心内容是地球化学背景与地球化学异常的合理区分,找矿信息提取将直接影响到成矿预测的结果.文章采用基于RAGA的PPC模型对凤太矿集区1:5万水系沉积物化探数据进行处理,初步探讨了投影寻踪聚类方法在地球化学异常识别与元素共生组合方面的应用,以及投影方向值所代表的地质意义.结果表明,PPC模型的化探异常识别效...