A multidisciplinary multi-scale framework for assessing vulnerabilities to global change

Terrestrial ecosystems provide a number of vital services for people and society, such as food, fibre, water resources, carbon sequestration, and recreation. The future capability of ecosystems to provide these services is determined by changes in socio-economic factors, land use, atmospheric composition, and climate. Most impact assessments do not quantify the vulnerability of ecosystems and ecosystem services under such environmental change. They cannot answer important policy-relevant questions such as 'Which are the main regions or sectors that are most vulnerable to global change?’ 'How do the vulnerabilities of two regions compare?’ 'Which scenario is the least harmful for a sector?’This paper describes a new approach to vulnerability assessment developed by the Advanced Terrestrial Ecosystem Analysis and Modelling (ATEAM) project. Different ecosystem models, covering biodiversity, agriculture, forestry, hydrology, and carbon sequestration are fed with the same Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) scenarios based on the Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES). Each model gives insights into specific ecosystems, as in traditional impact assessments. Moreover, by integrating the results in a vulnerability assessment, the policy-relevant questions listed above can also be addressed. A statistically derived European environmental stratification forms a key element in the vulnerability assessment. By linking it to other quantitative environmental stratifications, comparisons can be made using data from different assessments and spatial scales.     

平凉地区对流风暴地闪活动与环境层结因子相关性分析

利用1997年和1998年6－8月间在甘肃平凉地区的3站闪电定位系统所取得的地闪资料与当天早晨探空资料进行了初步的统计分析。分析结果，对流风暴中地闪活动与环境层结因子之间有较好的相关性，不稳定度、余额不稳定度5℃处的环境温度、温度层结中（中层）平均相对湿度是影响对流风暴中地闪活动的重要因子，对流风暴的地闪活动可通过这些因子进行预报。     

EFG法在土体固结中的应用

EFGM作为一种新的数值计算方法，具有只需节点信息而无段单元的特性，故在解固结方程方面有很大的优势。在计算分析中，此法容易构造固结方程的EFGM刚度矩阵和处理不同边界条件。对单面排水等条件的计算结果表明，EFGM在解决固结变形问题上，精度较高，处理边界准确。     

得尔布干成矿带中段八大关——新峰山成矿地质条件分析

得尔布干成矿带中段八大关—新峰山地区断裂构造发育 ,北东向得尔布干深大断裂是重要的控岩控矿构造。与成矿有关岩浆岩主要为燕山期的中性—中酸性侵入岩及次火山岩。赋矿层位主要有上库力组、塔木兰沟组及谢尔塔拉组。在分析典型矿床的成矿地质特征基础上 ,进一步指出找矿方向     

Torsional vibrations of elastic foundation on saturated media

A comprehensive analytical solution is developed to examine the torsional vibration of an elastic foundation on a semi-infinite saturated elastic medium for the first time. First, the governing equations of saturated media are solved by use of Hankel transform techniques. Then, based on the assumption that the contact between the foundation and the half-space is perfectly bonded, this dynamic mixed boundary-value problem can lead to dual integral equations, which are further reduced to the standard Fredholm integral equations of the second kind and solved by numerical procedures. Numerical examples are given at the end of the paper. The numerical results indicate that the response of the elastic foundation strongly depends on the material and geometrical properties of both the saturated soil-foundation system and the load acting on the foundation. In most of the cases, the dynamic behavior of an elastic foundation on saturated media significantly differs from that of a rigid plate bearing on the elastic half-space.     

深埋长隧道有害气体发生的地质条件初探

有害气体的深埋长隧道的主要地质灾害现象之一。本文在现场调查及查阅国内外文献资料基础上，探讨了有害气体发生的地质条件，为有害气体地质灾害的预测提供了依据。     

Participatory selection process for indicators of rangeland condition in the Kalahari

To develop indicator–based management tools that can facilitate sustainable natural resource management by non–specialists, meaningful participation of stakeholders is essential. A participatory framework is proposed for the identification, evaluation and selection of rangeland condition indicators. This framework is applied to the assessment of rangeland degradation processes and sustainable natural resource management with pastoralists in the southern Kalahari, Botswana. Farmer knowledge focused on vegetation and livestock, with soil, wild animal and socio–economic indicators playing a lesser role. Most were indicators of current rangeland condition; however 'early warning' indicators were also identified by some key informants. This demonstrates that some local knowledge is process–based. Such knowledge could be used to improve indicator–based management tools and extension advice on the livelihood adaptations necessary to prevent or reduce ecological change, capable of threatening livelihood sustainability. There is evidence that social background influences indicator use. Communal farmers rely most heavily on vegetation and livestock indicators, whilst syndicate and land–owning pastoralists cite wild animal and soil–based indicators most frequently. These factors must be considered if indicator–based management tools are to meet the requirements of a diverse community.     

塔里木盆地西部含盐系地层成盐元素的地球化学初步研究

钾矿是我国目前紧缺的矿种之一 ,钾矿的寻找对我国有着十分重要的意义。塔里木盆地是我国第三系地层的广泛发育区域 ,有一定的找钾远景 ,尤其是库车、莎车等地区。通过对塔里木盆地 (坳陷 )西部的区域地质概况、成矿条件等的介绍 ,运用地球化学的分析测试手段 ,对塔里木盆地西部采集到的样品作了地球化学分析。论述了该区成盐沉积的地球化学特征 ,并讨论了该区形成钾矿的可能性。     

贵州雷公山背斜南段锑矿控矿条件浅析

本文根据雷公山背斜南段的几个锑矿床的勘查资料，结合1：5万区调和相应的科研成果，总结该区锑矿床的共同特征，并对其控矿条件进行分析，认为逆冲断层、剪切带控制锑矿田的分布，“褶皱 断层”控制锑矿床分布，单条剪切带及后期脆性断层控制锑矿体的产出。