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51.
The present study is carried out to examine the performance of a regional atmospheric model in forecasting tropical cyclones
over the Bay of Bengal and its sensitivity to horizontal resolution. Two cyclones, which formed over the Bay of Bengal during
the years 1995 and 1997, are simulated using a regional weather prediction model with two horizontal resolutions of 165 km
and 55 km. The model is found to perform reasonably well towards simulation of the storms. The structure, intensity and track
of the cyclones are found to be better simulated by finer resolution of the model as compared to the coarse resolution. Rainfall
amount and its distribution are also found to be sensitive to the model horizontal resolution. Other important fields, viz.,
vertical velocity, horizontal divergence and horizontal moisture flux are also found to be sensitive to model horizontal resolution
and are better simulated by the model with finer horizontal grids. 相似文献
52.
Linda J. Anderson-Berry 《Natural Hazards》2003,30(2):209-232
This paper is a partial discussion of a four-year study that investigated the vulnerability of the people living in the Cairns region to the tropical cyclone hazard. The longitudinal case study, focussing on the Cairns Northern Beaches area, was unique in that it included a social and societal `pre-cyclone impact' evaluation of various resident communities within the region, and then two consecutive `post-cyclone impact' studies. The primary research method supported an inductive qualitative approach to the collection and analysis of survey data. Some quantitative methods were invoked to support qualitative research findings. Survey data was collected in five separate questionnaire-based social surveys that were administered between 1996 and 2000. During the study, residents experiencedthe direct impact of two land-falling tropical cyclones. In addition to this, targeted andfocussed tropical cyclone awareness education was made increasingly available withinthe community. The social and demographic attributes that influence the individual'sperception of risk and contribute to our understanding of community vulnerability were examined and evaluated. Changes in the residents' attitudes, cyclone preparednessbehaviours and willingness to respond to cyclone warnings were monitored and measured. Analysis of early survey data indicated that community residents generally had some knowledge of cyclones but a limited understanding of cyclone processes and very little direct personal experience of the cyclone hazard. Individually and collectively, residents frequently demonstrated a biased perception of the risks associated with cyclones. The resident community was shown to be fragmented, with limited support being available to individual households. Initially, residents were found to be poorly prepared for cyclones and unlikely to respond to warnings appropriately. It appeared that, in the event of a land-falling tropical cyclone impacting the area, the community was highly vulnerable to unnecessary loss of property, livelihood and – in extreme circumstances – life. By 2000, Cairns community residents were somewhat better informed about cyclones and certainly more experienced. This paper provides some insight into how cyclone experience and education may synergisticly have contributed to a change in risk perceptions and a reduction in the vulnerability of Cairns residents to the tropical cyclone and storm surge hazards. 相似文献
53.
54.
硬盘一旦出现故障,对每一个使用电脑的人来说简直就是一场灾难,因为硬盘里的数据比硬盘本身的价值更大,如何将其损失降到最低限度,这是非常值得研究的。 相似文献
55.
56.
M. C. Kim 《Journal of Geodesy》1997,71(12):749-767
The fundamental geometry of satellite ground tracks and their crossover problem are investigated. For idealized nominal ground
tracks, the geometry is governed by a few constant parameters whose variations lead to qualitative changes in the crossover
solutions. On the basis that the theory to locate crossovers has not been studied in sufficient detail, such changes are described
in regard to the number of crossover solutions in conjunction with their bifurcations. Employing the spinor algebra as a tool
for establishing the ground-track crossing condition, numerical methodologies to locate crossovers appearing in general dual-satellite
ground-track configurations are also presented. The methodologies are applied to precisely determined orbital ephemerides
of the GEOSAT, ERS-1, and TOPEX/POSEIDON altimeter satellites.
Received: 19 November 1996 / Accepted: 12 May 1997 相似文献
57.
本文以9015号热带气旋登陆后造成的省淮以南大暴雨天气为例,与8闪一般暴雨天气的热力动力条件进行对比,分析它们之间的异同点,并利用二维点尺度力学模式对地面中尺度锋区引起民环流进行模拟试验,结果表明,在热带气旋伸向东北部一条辐合线的偏北旗帜的中尺度锋区驱动扰动涡旋,在涡旋的上升部位可对大暴雨有增幅作用。 相似文献
58.
1993年5月4—6日(“93.5”)在我国西北地区发生了一次极具破坏力的“黑风暴”。为了诊断这次黑风暴发展期的热量和水汽收支,使用了具有高分辨PBL参数化及40km细网络的MM4对该例控制模拟的输出资料和热量与水汽收支方程。对视热源(Q1)和视水汽汇(Q2)的诊断结果指出,Q1的垂直积分在黑风暴的前部和后部分别呈现一条显著的加热带和冷却带。在黑风暴区,Q1和Q2的区域平均垂直廓线揭示,黑风暴的Q1加热主要发生在对流层的上部,而其中部加热主要出现在发展初期;与Q1相应,Q2在低空和中空分别发生明显的增湿变冷和变干加热。这些结果不仅与因黑风暴过程而观测到的强剧强降温率一致,而且也为改进和发展用于模拟和预报黑风暴的中尺度数值模式提供了一些物理依据 相似文献
59.
60.
中国西北部“4.5”沙尘暴过程中尺度低压的数值模拟 总被引:3,自引:9,他引:3
利用改进型PSU/NCAR中尺度数值模式(MM4标准版),取模式水平格距40km,46×61网格,垂直方向a取15层,即从地面到模式顶(100hPa),σ=0.0、0.1、0.2、0.3、0.4、0.5、0.6、0.7、0.78、0.84、0.89、0.93、0.96、0.98、0.99、1.00,采用NCAR的30'×30'地形资料,以常规观测资料作为初始场,较好地模拟了此次沙尘暴过程的海平面气压的演变和分布,特别是张掖、柴达本盆地以及敦煌附近的三个中低压。同时,模拟了张掖中低压与蒙古冷高压之间的甘肃河西沙尘暴东大风。敏感性试验表明,沙尘暴中低压的形成发展主要是受于物理过程制约;沙尘暴中尺度系统的研究与暴雨中尺度系统的研究是有区别的,积云对流参数化并不是特别重要,在设计研究沙尘暴的数值模式中,应当合理地处理其他的热力、动力过程及大气外强迫源的作用。模式水平格距、地形真实程度对模拟中低压的位置、中心强度有重要贡献;下垫面变化中低压强度有一定影响。张掖热低压的形成发展主要是在有利的环境形势下,特殊地势起了重要作用,表现为直接动力强迫和间接热力强迫。 相似文献