Climate sensitivity to changes in land surface characteristics

Using a recently developed global vegetation distribution, topography, and shorelines for the Early Eocene in conjunction with the Genesis version 2.0 climate model, we investigate the influences that these new boundary conditions have on global climate. Global mean climate changes little in response to the subtle changes we made; differences in mean annual and seasonal surface temperatures over northern and southern hemispheric land, respectively, are on the order of 0.5°C. In contrast, and perhaps more importantly, continental scale climate exhibits significant responses. Increased peak elevations and topographic detail result in larger amplitude planetary 4 mm/day and decreases by 7–9 mm/day in the proto Himalayan region. Surface temperatures change by up to 18°C as a direct result of elevation modifications. Increased leaf area index (LAI), as a result of altered vegetation distributions, reduces temperatures by up to 6°C. Decreasing the size of the Mississippi embayment decreases inland precipitation by 1–2 mm/day. These climate responses to increased accuracy in boundary conditions indicate that “improved” boundary conditions may play an important role in producing modeled paleoclimates that approach the proxy data more closely.     

Predicted interplanetary shocks/particles at Mars compared with in-situ observations: An overview

The biological and technological consequences of long-duration, solar-related, energetic particle radiation for manned/unmanned spacecraft warrant that consideration be given to providing reliable space weather predictions for future space missions to planet Mars. An account is, herein, provided of how the HAFv.2 numerical model was applied to predict the arrivals of four, flare-related, shocks at Mars generated during a >20-day active period on the Sun in March 1989, and of the arrival of another composite shock produced in association with a 10-day period of solar activity in December 2006. These predictions are compared with in-situ measurements of shock signatures at Mars recorded, in the former case, by the solar-low-energy-detector (SLED) and by the low-energy-telescope (LET) aboard the Phobos-2 spacecraft and, in the latter case, in data recorded by the ASPERA-3/IMA instrument aboard Mars Express. The success of the predictions is discussed and the requirement for further validation of the modeling technique using a large statistical sample pointed out. In-situ measurements made aboard Mars Express by the ASPERA-3/IMA experiment during the rising phase of Solar Cycle 24 can provide data relevant to such validation. The successful application of a SOLar Particle ENgineering COde (SOLPENCO), that estimates solar energetic particle (SEP) fluxes and fluences at the Earth, to the case of an energetic particle event at Mars (6 March 1989) is discussed. Measurements of SEP events recorded by the Solar TErrestrial RElations Observatory (STEREO) supplemented by Mars Express measurements can potentially allow the predictions of SOLPENCO to be further studied downstream using a large statistical sample. However, we are presently only at the beginning of our understanding of the complex Sun-Earth-Mars scenarios that give rise to shock/particle events in the close Martian environment.     

Variations of the magnetic field near Mars caused by magnetic crustal anomalies

The possible avenues for photoelectron transport were determined during southern hemisphere winter at Mars by using a mapping analysis of the theoretical magnetic field. Magnetic field line tracing was performed by superposing two magnetic field models: (1) magnetic field derived from a three-dimensional (3D) self-consistent quasi-neutral hybrid model which does not contain the Martian crustal magnetic anomalies and (2) a 3D map of the magnetic field associated with the magnetic anomalies based on Mars Global Surveyor magnetic field measurements. It was found that magnetic field lines connected to the nightside of the planet are mainly channeled within the optical shadow of the magnetotail whereas magnetic field lines connected to the dayside of the planet are observed to form the remainder of the magnetosphere. The simulation suggests that the crustal anomalies create “a magnetic shield” by decreasing the region near Mars which is magnetically connected to the Martian magnetosphere. The rotation of Mars causes periodic changes in magnetic connectivity, but not to qualitative changes in the overall magnetic field draping around Mars.     

THE THEORY OF RESPONSE ANALYSIS OF FUZZY STOCHASTIC DYNAMICAL SYSTEMS WITH A SINGLE DEGREE OF FREEDOM

Most real-life structural/mechanical systems have complex geometrical and material properties and operate under complex fuzzy environmental conditions. These systems are certainly subjected to fuzzy random excitations induced by the environment. For an analytical treatment of such a system subjected to fuzzy random excitations, it becomes necessary to establish the general theory of dynamic response of a system to fuzzy random excitations. In this paper, the theory of response, fuzzy mean response and fuzzy covariance response of a single-degree-of-freedom (sdf) system to fuzzy random excitations in the time domain and frequency domain is put forward. The theory of response analysis of an sdf system to both stationary and non-stationary fuzzy random excitations in the time domain and frequency domain is established. Two examples are considered in order to demonstrate the rationality and validity of the theory, and the models of stationary filtered white noise and non-stationary filtered white noise fuzzy stochastic processes of the earthquake ground motion are set up. Methods of analysis for fuzzy random seismic response of sdf systems are put forward using the principles of response analysis of an sdf fuzzy random dynamic system.     

Identifying Rocky Seabed Using GIS-Modeled Predictor Variables

Mapping the seabed along the Norwegian coast is costly and time consuming. Hence, finding a modeling method to separate rocky seabed from other substrate types will provide digital maps that may be used to develop cost-effective sampling designs to predict species and habitat distribution. Our approach was to use geophysical data that were quantitative and objectively defined, generalized additive models (GAMs), and Akaike information criterion (AIC) to develop statistical models and select among them. We found that slope, terrain curvature, wave exposure, and depth predicted rocky seabed occurrence with a high degree of certainty.     

The improvement of the one-dimensional Mellor-Yamada and K-profile parameterization turbulence schemes with the non-breaking surface wave-induced verticalmixing

Both the level 2.5 Mellor-Yamada turbulence closure scheme(MY) and K-profile parameterization(KPP) are popularly used by the ocean modeling community.The MY and the KPP are improved through including the non-breaking surface wave-induced vertical mixing(Bv),and the improved schemes were tested by using continuous data at the Papa ocean weather station(OWS) during 1961–1965.The numerical results showed that the Bv can make the temperature simulations fit much better with the continuous data from Papa Station.The two improved schemes overcame the shortcomings of predicting too shallow upper mixed layer depth and consequently overheated sea surface temperature during summertime,which are in fact common problems for all turbulence closure models.Statistical analysis showed that the Bv effectively reduced the mean absolute error and root mean square error of the upper layer temperature and increased the correlation coefficient between simulation and the observation.Furthermore,the performance of vertical mixing induced by shear instability and the Bv is also compared.Both the temperature structure and its seasonal cycle significantly improved by including the Bv,regardless of whether shear instability was included or not,especially for the KPP mixing scheme,which suggested that Bv played a dominant role in the upper ocean where the mean current was relatively weak,such as at Papa Station.These results may provide a clue to improve ocean circulation models.     

Numerical simulation of agricultural sediment and pesticide runoff: RZWQM and PRZM comparison

Agricultural sediment and pesticide runoff is a widespread ecological and human health concern. Numerical simulation models, such as Root Zone Water Quality Model (RZWQM) and Pesticide Root Zone Model (PRZM), have been increasingly used to quantify off‐site agricultural pollutant movement. However, RZWQM has been criticized for its inability to simulate sedimentation processes. The recent incorporation of the sedimentation module of Groundwater Loading Effects of Agricultural Management Systems has enabled RZWQM to simulate sediment and sediment‐associated pesticides. This study compares the sediment and pesticide transport simulation performance of the newly released RZWQM and PRZM using runoff data from 2 alfalfa fields in Davis, California. A composite metric (based on coefficient of determination, Nash–Sutcliffe efficiency, index of agreement, and percent bias) was developed and employed to ensure robust, comprehensive assessment of model performance. Results showed that surface water runoff was predicted reasonably well (absolute percent bias <31%) by RZWQM and PRZM after adjusting important hydrologic parameters. Even after calibration, underestimation bias (?89% ≤ PBIAS  ≤ ?36%) for sediment yield was observed in both models. This might be attributed to PRZM's incorrect distribution of input water and uncertainty in RZWQM's runoff erosivity coefficient. Moreover, the underestimation of sediment might be less if the origin of measured sediment was considered. Chlorpyrifos losses were simulated with reasonable accuracy especially for Field A (absolute PBIAS  ≤ 22%), whereas diuron losses were underestimated to a great extent (?98% ≤ PBIAS  ≤ ?65%) in both models. This could be attributed to the underprediction of herbicide concentration in the top soil due to the limitations of the instantaneous equilibrium sorption model as well as the high runoff potential of herbicide formulated as water‐dispersible granules. RZWQM and PRZM partitioned pesticides into the water and sediment phases similarly. According to model predictions, the majority of pesticide loads were carried via the water phase. On the basis of this study, both RZWQM and PRZM performed well in predicting runoff that carried highly adsorptive pesticides on an event basis, although the more physically based RZWQM is recommended when field‐measured soil hydraulic properties are available.     

A numerical study of mechanical behavior of a cement paste under mechanical loading and chemical leaching

Based on relevant experimental data of a petroleum cement paste under mechanical loading and chemical leaching, an elastic‐plastic model is first proposed by taking into account plastic shearing and pore collapse. The degradation of mechanical properties induced by the chemical leaching is characterized by a chemical damage variable which is defined as the increase of porosity. Both elastic and plastic properties of the cement paste are affected by the chemical damage. The proposed model is calibrated from and applied to describe mechanical responses in triaxial compression tests respectively on sound and fully leached samples. In the second part, a phenomenological chemical model is defined to establish the relationship between porosity change and calcium dissolution process. The dissolution kinetics is governed by a diffusion law taking into account the variation of diffusion coefficient with calcium concentration. The chemical model is coupled with the mechanical model, and both are applied to describe mechanical response of cement paste samples subjected to progressive chemical leaching and compressive stresses. Comparisons between experimental data and numerical results are presented.     

http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1674987114001601

Data from a migmatised metapelite raft enclosed within charnockite provide quantitative constraints on the pressure-temperature-time[P-T-t) evolution of the Nagercoil Block at the southernmost tip of peninsular India.An inferred peak metamorphic assemblage of garnet,K-feldspar.sillimanite,plagioclase,magnetite,ilmenite,spinel and melt is consistent with peak metamorphic pressures of 6-8 kbar and temperatures in excess of 900℃.Subsequent growth of cordierite and biotite record high-temperature retrograde decompression to around 5 kbar and 800 C.SHRIMP U-Pb dating of magmatic zircon cores suggests that the sedimentary protoliths were in part derived from felsic igneous rocks with Palaeoproterozoic crystallisation ages.New growth of metamorphic zircon on the rims of detrital grains constrains the onset of melt crystallisation,and the minimum age of the metamorphic peak,to around560 Ma.The data suggest two stages of monazite growth.The first generation of REE-enriched monazite grew during partial melting along the prograde path at around 570 Ma via the incongruent breakdown of apatite.Relatively REE-depleted rims,which have a pronounced negative europium anomaly,grew during melt crystallisation along the retrograde path at around 535 Ma.Our data show the rocks remained at suprasolidus temperatures for at least 35 million years and probably much longer,supporting a long-lived high-grade metamorphic history.The metamorphic conditions,timing and duration of the implied clockwise P-T-t path are similar to that previously established for other regions in peninsular India during the Ediacaran to Cambrian assembly of that part of the Gondwanan supercontinent.