Modeling uncertainties of reservoir flushing simulations

Every dam or barrage construction affects the watercourse and the retention of sediment that previously was carried by the river, which can lead to siltation of the reservoir and obstruction of water intakes over time, reducing their capacities. However, the information available regarding the effect of sediment and drawdown parameters, sediment management at reservoirs, as well as different equational approaches, is scarce. The current research aims to evaluate the effect of parameters associated with numerical modeling of sediment management in reservoirs considering scenarios with different drawdowns, transport equations, sediment size distributions, and thickness of the initial sediment layer. The case study of the Aimorés Hydropower Plant (HPP) is used, applying the Delft3D-FLOW model for two-dimensional modeling. All parameters influenced the volume of mobilized sediment, among which the initial layer thickness was the parameter that resulted in the greatest changes in simulated results. In general, the results show that the uncertainties in the input parameters outweigh the uncertainties between the techniques, which found large variations in results when evaluating the use of different transport equations. These results indicate the importance of proper estimation of model parameters for predicting effects with accuracy and the need for such studies before planning and management operations are evaluated to avoid environmental harm and energy waste.     

偏移速度分析与速度反演方法评述

本文阐述了各向同性介质中纵波偏移速度建模中的速度分析方法原理及其优缺点,包括常规速度分析、偏移速度分析、层析偏移速度分析以及全波形反演。其中着重阐述了深度域速度建模中的速度分析方法原理及其在实用中的优缺点。最后对深度域偏移速度分析方法进行了展望。     

三维非均匀地质模型中的逐段迭代射线追踪

地震射线追踪是地震定位、层析成像、偏移等领域的重要正演环节.随着这些领域研究的深入,针对传统的网格结构和层状结构在描述复杂地质模型遇到的很大困难,我们采用大小不等、形状各异的地质块组成的集合体来描述三维复杂地质模型,并用三角形面片来描述地质块之间的物性间断面,理论上可以描述任意复杂的地质模型.为适应任意非均匀速度分布的地质模型,基于费马原理,本文发展了与之相适应的逐段迭代射线追踪方法.该方法属于弯曲法范畴,对路径点采用一阶显式增量修正,相对于传统的迭代法,高效省时.数值试验表明,联合逐段迭代法和伪弯曲法的射线追踪扰动修正方案在三维复杂非均匀块状模型中有适用性和高效性.     

A simulation‐based framework for risk assessment and probabilistic sensitivity analysis of base‐isolated structures

A versatile, simulation‐based framework for risk assessment and probabilistic sensitivity analysis of base‐isolated structures is discussed in this work. A probabilistic foundation is used to address the various sources of uncertainties, either excitation or structural, and to characterize seismic risk. This risk is given, in this stochastic setting, by some statistics of the system response over the adopted probability models and stochastic simulation is implemented for its evaluation. An efficient, sampling‐based approach is also introduced for establishing a probabilistic sensitivity analysis to identify the importance of each of the uncertain model parameters in affecting the overall risk. This framework facilitates use of complex models for the structural system and the excitation. The adopted structural model explicitly addresses nonlinear characteristics of the isolators and of any supplemental dampers, and the effect of seismic pounding of the base to the surrounding retaining walls. An efficient stochastic ground motion model is also discussed for characterizing future near‐fault ground motions and relating them to the seismic hazard for the structural site. An illustrative example is presented that emphasizes the results from the novel probabilistic sensitivity analysis and their dependence on seismic pounding occurrences and on addition of supplemental dampers. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

基于辛格式奇异核褶积微分算子的地震标量波场模拟

本文在对地震波场进行模拟时,采用辛差分格式对波动方程进行时间离散,采用奇异核褶积微分算子对波动方程进行空间离散.该方法尽管增加了一些计算量,但提高了计算精度和稳定性;相对于其他非辛算法,它是全局保结构的,并且具有较强的长时间跟踪能力.该方法为解决大尺度、长时程地震波场的高精度模拟问题提供了一种新的、有效的选择.     

基于二次场的海洋可控源电磁法三维有限元正演

根据库伦规范势的定义,推导出关于磁矢量势和电标量势的偏微分方程,为了克服由电流源引起的奇异性和数值模拟计算困难,将电磁总场分解为一次场和二次场,一次场由基于Schelkunoff势函数的一维正演算法得到,二次场由有限元法计算得到,实现了海洋可控源电磁法三维有限元正演算法。通过一维数值模拟实例,验证该算法的计算精度。然后,利用该算法对带海底地形的三层储层模型进行正演,分析了海底地形对海洋控源电磁场各分量产生的影响。     

Inverse reconstructions of ecosystem flows in investigating regime shifts: impact of the choice of objective function

Inverse analysis is increasingly used in ecosystem modelling to objectively reconstruct a large number of unknown flows or interactions from a small number of observations. This type of analysis may be useful in relating observed regime shifts in ecosystem structure to underlying processes. Inversions of ecosystem flow networks currently use a constrained least-squares solution which at the same time minimizes the squared norm (the sum of squares) of the reconstructed flows. This minimum norm (MN) inversion is thought to be a parsimonious solution to the ecosystem flow inverse problem, but it may well not reflect how ecosystems are organised. It has been proposed instead that ecosystems evolve to maximize energy/mass flows or that they maximize the information content of the network weighted by ecosystem flows (ascendancy). We used simulated inverse experiments, where inverse analyses are applied to simulations of flow networks, to explore objective functions different than the MN generally used. We could not compute inverse solutions that maximize ascendancy because the objective function is unbounded. We could calculate inversions that maximize flows; however, these generally overestimated the simulated flows, even though the simulations were designed to maximize flows. It appears that the ecosystem flow inverse problem is too under-determined (too few data relative to the number of unknowns) to allow the use of these maximizing goal functions. We introduce a new minimization that simultaneously minimizes the squared flows and the squared differences between flows. This smoothing minimization makes the inverse flows as even as possible and it helps with some technical issues with MN inversions. The simulated inverse experiments indicated that this smoothed norm (SM) is the most robust in comparative analyses of contrasting ecosystem states, such as those that can be associated with regime shifts. Like the MN inversion, the SM inversion has no ecological basis. However, it is a conservative norm that is less likely to produce false differences between the dynamics of regimes.     

Wind-induced drift of objects at sea: The leeway field method

A method for conducting leeway field experiments to establish the drift properties of small objects (0.1-25 m) is described. The objective is to define a standardized and unambiguous procedure for condensing the drift properties down to a set of coefficients that may be incorporated into existing stochastic trajectory forecast models for drifting objects of concern to search and rescue operations and other activities involving vessels lost at sea such as containers with hazardous material.An operational definition of the slip or wind and wave-induced motion of a drifting object relative to the ambient current is proposed. This definition taken together with a strict adherence to a 10 m wind speed allows us to refer unambiguously to the leeway of a drifting object. We recommend that all objects if possible be studied using what we term the direct method, where the object’s leeway is studied directly using an attached current meter.We establish a minimum set of parameters that should be estimated for a drifting object for it to be included in the operational forecast models used for prediction of search areas for drifting objects.We divide drifting objects into four categories, depending on their size. For the smaller objects (less than 0.5 m), an indirect method of measuring the object’s motion relative to the ambient current must be used. For larger objects, direct measurement of the motion through the near-surface water masses is strongly recommended. Larger objects are categorized according to the ability to attach current meters and wind monitoring systems to them.The leeway field method proposed here is illustrated with results from field work where three objects were studied in their distress configuration; a 1:3.3 sized model of a 40-foot Shipping container, a World War II mine and a 220 l (55-gallon) oil drum.     

Upper Ocean Four-Dimensional Variational Data Assimilation in the Arabian Sea and Bay of Bengal

A regional ocean circulation model with four-dimensional variational data assimilation scheme is configured to study the ocean state of the Indian Ocean region (65°E–95°E; 5°N–20°N) covering the Arabian Sea (AS) and Bay of Bengal (BoB). The state estimation setup uses 10 km horizontal resolution and 5 m vertical resolution in the upper ocean. The in-situ temperature and salinity, satellite-derived observations of sea surface height, and blended (in-situ and satellite-derived) observations of sea surface temperature alongwith their associated uncertainties are used for data assimilation with the regionally configured ocean model. The ocean state estimation is carried out for 61 days (1 June to 31 July 2013). The assimilated fields are closer to observations compared to other global state estimates. The mixed layer depth (MLD) of the region shows deepening during the period of assimilation with AS showing higher MLD compared to the BoB. An empirical forecast equation is derived for the prediction of MLD using the air–sea forcing variables as predictors. The surface and sub-surface (50 m) heat and salt budget tendencies of the region are also investigated. It is found that at the sub-surface, only the advection and diffusion temperature and salt tendencies are important.