Farmland Abandonment Research Progress: Influencing Factors and Simulation Model

Farmland abandonment is a global problem and considered one of the most important areas in land use change research. Farmland abandonment research currently focuses on understanding the factors that affect farmland abandonment and developing scientific models to simulate farmland abandonment. The study reviewed the natural and political factors driving farmland abandonment and summarized the main models for farmland abandonment simulation together with their advantages and disadvantages. We discuss the main ecological effects of farmland abandonment and propose farmland abandonment research directions. The study found that: (1) the influence of labor cost change and ageing labor force on farmland abandonment needs further investigation, (2) simulation models for farmland abandonment must include the decision-making mechanism of individual farmers and focus on macro large-scale abandonment prediction models, and (3) the influence of farmland abandonment on landscape culture must be investigated in detail.     

Effects of installation on the cyclic axial behaviour of suction buckets in sandy soils

Suction buckets differ with their easy and cost-efficient installation technique from other foundation types for offshore wind turbines. For successful completion of their installation process, suction is essential, but the imposed seepage leads to the changes in states of the soil in and around the bucket. Especially, a loosening of soil inside the bucket affects the load carrying behaviour of bucket subjected to repetitive loading resulting from environmental conditions. In this study, the behaviour of buckets under cyclic axial compressive loads with considering a possible loosening and related changes in permeability of soil inside the bucket is investigated numerically. In the framework of finite element analysis, a fully coupled two-phase model and a hypoplastic constitutive model are used to describe the saturated sandy soil behaviour under repetitive loading. The porosity-permeability variation is taken into account by Kozeny–Carman relationship. Special attention is dedicated to load carrying behaviour of bucket top plate, inner and outer skirt as well as base and their changes resulting from a loosening of soil inside the bucket with variable aspect ratio. For this purpose, cyclic axial compressive loads which cause an attenuation and progressive failure of soil-bucket system response are considered. The main findings on the changes in load carrying behaviour of bucket are presented and discussed.     

函数模型与随机模型双约束的GPS-InSAR数据融合方法建立三维形变场

针对InSAR技术研究地表三维形变时监测信息不足的问题,以GPS监测信息为先验信息,建立附有随机模型约束的地表三维形变模型。考虑到SAR卫星极轨方式运行导致LOS向观测量对南北向形变不敏感的问题,以GPS南北向形变观测值作为强约束,构建三维形变解算的函数约束条件。模拟数据与西安地区实测数据的计算结果表明,基于随机模型与函数模型共同约束的地表三维形变参数最小二乘解的精度优于仅有函数模型约束或仅有随机模型约束及无任何约束的参数解精度。     

用随机有限断层方法模拟2016-11-13新西兰Mw7.8地震

在未来大地震发震构造已知的前提下,提出用经验公式确定大地震断层长度、宽度、地震矩和滑动分布等参数,并用随机有限断层方法预测未来大地震。用随机有限断层方法模拟2016-11-13新西兰M_W7.8地震的12个基岩台站地震动时程和反应谱,并用模拟的频谱幅值与记录频谱幅值平均比值确定模拟误差。结果表明,在周期为0~10 s的范围内,模拟误差在0.92~1.08之间,不同频率模拟误差的标准差变化范围不超过1。95%的置信区间宽度随频率无明显变化,模拟结果反映了地震动记录的平均效果。用准随机方法重新获取新西兰大地震断层初始破裂点和位错滑动分布,模拟地震动并计算模拟误差随频率的变化,得到与最初模型相似的结论,从而进一步证实了本文提出的获取震源参数并用随机有限断层方法预测未来大地震的可靠性,且其特别适用于大地震远场模拟。     

不同开口比人工鱼礁体水动力特性及礁体稳定性研究

为研究方型人工鱼礁体开口比的变化对其水动力特性的影响,利用Fluent软件模拟了边长为3m、开口比为0～0.6之间7种不同方型鱼礁体周围水流场,通过分析水流场变化规律得到了礁体流场效应、阻力系数随开口比的变化情况;基于Morison方程计算了礁体在波流作用下的受力及其抗滑移、抗倾覆安全系数。研究结果表明:当礁体开口比小于0.2时,背涡区范围较大,流场效应明显;随着开口比的增大,礁体产生的上升流范围及竖直向最大速度分量逐渐减小;对于方形开口礁体,阻力系数与开口比的关系式为Cd=0.875φ+1.088(R2=0.963,P<0.01);随着开口比的增大,礁体所受最大波流作用力、抗滑移及抗倾覆安全系数逐渐减小,但礁体不会发生滑移和倾覆,可为实际礁体结构的设计提供参考。     

综合多信息进行地震约束储层随机建模——以准噶尔盆地庄1井区J1S2^2砂组为例

针对地震约束储层随机建模中地震反演波阻抗数据体与岩相概率关系差的问题,提出综合多信息、逐级约束、多级建模的思路方法。首先以地震反演数据体约束建立地球物理特征曲线随机参数场,再以每一个地球物理特征曲线参数场为约束建立相模型,最后以优选的相模型和地球物理特征曲线参数场为约束进行储层参数建模。该方法在井距较大的开发前期评价阶段具有较好的应用效果。     

Decline of Pseudodiaptomus hessei (Copepoda, Calanoida) in two water bodies located in the Senegal River hydrosystem (West Africa): Hypotheses and perspectives

Pseudodiaptomus hessei is a key species in many water bodies in the Senegal River hydrosystem but it became rare or completely disappeared from two ecosystems (Lake Guiers and Dakar Bango Reservoir; Senegal, West Africa) after major hydrological changes caused by human action, mainly impoundments on the river in 1985, and the opening of a new estuary mouth in 2003. Kâ et al. [Kâ, S., Pagano, M., Ba, N., Bouvy, M., Leboulanger, C., Arfi, R., Thiaw, O.T., Ndour, E.H.M., Corbin, D., Defaye, D., Cuoc, C., Kouassi, E., 2006. Zooplankton distribution related to environmental factors and phytoplankton in a shallow tropical lake (Lake Guiers, Senegal, West Africa). International Review of Hydrobiology 91(5), 389–405] put forward several hypotheses to explain the reasons for this decline: salinity and chemical changes in the water, predation by a cyclopid predator Mesocyclops ogunnus and/or the inhibiting effects of cyanobacteria and/or diatoms (allelopathy). This study assessed these hypotheses by studying the distribution of P. hessei in 13 stations (including the Dakar Bango reservoir and Lake Guiers) in relation to physical, chemical and biological (phyto- and zooplanktons) factors at each station. We produced a distribution pattern for this species in the Senegal River hydrosystem. Rank correlations and principal component analysis showed that P. hessei was not correlated with conductivity but was positively correlated with pH and alkalinity, suggesting chemical effects. The clear association with two filamentous cyanobacteria (Cylindrospermopsis raciborskii and Anabaena sp.) did not appear to support the hypothesis of cyanobacteria inhibition but blooming conditions were never encountered during the study. Negative correlation with diatoms (especially with Fragilaria sp.) suggested that aldehyde producing diatoms had a negative effect. Negative correlations with cyclopids such as Mesocyclops supported the hypothesis of cyclopid predation to explain the decline of P. hessei. This study proposes several lines of research for future studies to test these hypotheses.     

Honey, I cooled the cods: Modelling the effect of temperature on the structure of Boreal/Arctic fish ecosystems

Historically colder regions of the North Atlantic had fisheries dominated by only a few fish species; principally cod and capelin. Possible population dynamic mechanisms that lead to such dominance are investigated by considering how a charmingly simple published multispecies model of the North Sea would react if the system operated at a lower temperature. The existing model equations were modified to describe temperature effects on growth, fecundity and recruitment and the model was rerun based on typical temperatures for the North Sea and a colder system. The results suggest that total fish biomass in the colder system increases but the community is more vulnerable to a given rate of fishing mortality. In the colder system, within species density dependence is reduced but relative predation rates are higher. Consequently, intermediate-sized species are vulnerable to relatively high levels of predation throughout their life history and tend to be excluded, leading to a system dominated by small and large species. The model helps to explain how temperature may govern coexistence and competitive exclusion in fish communities and accounts for the observed dominance of small and large species in Boreal/Arctic ecosystems.     

Analysis of stochastic characteristics of the Benue River flow process

Stochastic characteristics of the Benue River streamflow process are examined under conditions of data austerity. The streamflow process is investigated for trend, non-stationarity and seasonality for a time period of 26 years. Results of trend analyses with Mann-Kendall test show that there is no trend in the annual mean discharges. Monthly flow series examined with seasonal Kendall test indicate the presence of positive change in the trend for some months, especially the months of August, January, and February. For the stationarity test, daily and monthly flow series appear to be stationary whereas at 1%, 5%, and 10% significant levels, the stationarity alternative hypothesis is rejected for the annual flow series. Though monthly flow appears to be stationary going by this test, because of high seasonality, it could be said to exhibit periodic stationarity based on the seasonality analysis. The following conclusions are drawn： （1） There is seasonality in both the mean and variance with unimodal distribution. （2） Days with high mean also have high variance. （3） Skewness coefficients for the months within the dry season period are greater than those of the wet season period, and seasonal autocorrelations for streamflow during dry season are generally larger than those of the wet season. Precisely, they are significantly different for most of the months. （4） The autocorrelation functions estimated ＂over time＂ are greater in the absolute value for data that have not been deseasonalised but were initially normalised by logarithmic transformation only, while autocorrelation functions for i = 1, 2 365 estimated ＂over realisations＂ have their coefficients significantly different from other coefficients.     

同步N-策略多重休假的M/M/C/WV排队

考虑同步N-策略多重休假和工作休假M/M/c排队,简记为M/M/c（N-WV）。在休假期间,服务员并未完全停止工作而是以较低的速率为顾客服务。用拟生灭过程与矩阵几何解方法,给出了系统稳态队长和稳态条件等待时间的分布。此外,也得到了队长和等待时间的条件随机分解结构及附加队长和附加延迟的分布。