基于气象因子的华中电网负荷预测方法研究

在分析各种节假日负荷变化规律的基础上, 利用气象因子作预报变量, 使用动态的综合线性回归和自回归相结合的混合线性回归方法及非线性的人工神经网络方法来进行华中电网日负荷和日最大负荷及日最小负荷的预测。对12个月共365天的独立样本试预报表明, 该客观方案对华中电网负荷的预测精度可满足业务调度的需要。     

Seismic response of self‐centring hysteretic SDOF systems

The seismic response of single‐degree‐of‐freedom (SDOF) systems incorporating flag‐shaped hysteretic structural behaviour, with self‐centring capability, is investigated numerically. For a SDOF system with a given initial period and strength level, the flag‐shaped hysteretic behaviour is fully defined by a post‐yielding stiffness parameter and an energy‐dissipation parameter. A comprehensive parametric study was conducted to determine the influence of these parameters on SDOF structural response, in terms of displacement ductility, absolute acceleration and absorbed energy. This parametric study was conducted using an ensemble of 20 historical earthquake records corresponding to ordinary ground motions having a probability of exceedence of 10% in 50 years, in California. The responses of the flag‐shaped hysteretic SDOF systems are compared against the responses of similar bilinear elasto‐plastic hysteretic SDOF systems. In this study the elasto‐plastic hysteretic SDOF systems are assigned parameters representative of steel moment resisting frames (MRFs) with post‐Northridge welded beam‐to‐column connections. In turn, the flag‐shaped hysteretic SDOF systems are representative of steel MRFs with newly proposed post‐tensioned energy‐dissipating connections. Building structures with initial periods ranging from 0.1 to 2.0s and having various strength levels are considered. It is shown that a flag‐shaped hysteretic SDOF system of equal or lesser strength can always be found to match or better the response of an elasto‐plastic hysteretic SDOF system in terms of displacement ductility and without incurring any residual drift from the seismic event. Copyright © 2002 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Towards a direct collapse–load method of design for concrete frames subjected to severe ground motions

Most current methods of design for concrete structures under earthquake loads rely on highly idealized ‘equivalent’ static representations of the seismic loads and linear‐elastic methods of structural analysis. With the continuing development of non‐linear methods of dynamic analysis for the overload behaviour and collapse of complete concrete structures, a more direct and more accurate design procedure becomes possible which considers conditions at system collapse. This paper describes an evaluation procedure that uses non‐linear dynamic collapse–load analysis together with global safety coefficients. A back‐calibration procedure for evaluating the global safety coefficients is also described. The aim of this paper is to open up discussion of alternative methods of design with improved accuracy which are necessary to move towards a direct collapse–load method of design. Copyright © 2002 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

海底天然气渗漏形成水合物量的线性动力学模型:以墨西哥湾GC185区块Bush高地为例

世界许多地区如墨西哥湾，存在着大量天然气渗漏并形成水合物的现象，出于科学，生态，气候和安全的需要。人类有必要弄清存在于海底以水合成形式存在的天然气的比例。因此，构建了水合物形成量的线性动力学模型，以分析墨西哥湾GC185块区Bush高地海底渗漏天然气的地质过程和行为。Bush高地渗漏的天然气来源于附近的Jolliet气藏，结果表明，渗漏天然气中约有9％的海底形成了水合物。     

长江中下游地区下蜀黄土成因研究的回顾

为了进一步认识下蜀黄土的成因及其在我国东部环境演为研究中的意义，回顾了20世纪30年代以来下蜀黄土研究的主要成果，系统地评述了下蜀黄土的风成说、水成说和多成因说。下蜀黄土的成因，从营力的先后及主交看，风成应是第一位的。因此，在利用下蜀黄土保存的古环境信息研究我国东部变化时，应慎重选择剖面，以获得良好的结果。     

Ordovician Graptolite Rhabdosome Complication and Its Implications on Sea Level Changes

A total of four times of rhabdosome complication events, i.e., the lateral branching of graptolite stipes during the Late Middle Ordovician, the secondary branching of graptolite stipes at the earliest Upper Ordovician, the early Qiantangjiangian of Upper Ordovician and the middle Qiantangjiangian, respectively, is discussed in this paper. These events and other adaptation events demonstrate close relationships between a diverse graptolite fauna and sea level changes, and consequently can be employed to study sea level fluctuations. It is safe to conclude that the complication of rhabdosome started at the maximum flooding surface (MFS) and terminated at the beginning of regression.     

河南省栾川县马圈一带银铅锌多金属找矿方向探讨

马圈一带出露的主要地层为上元古界栾川群和中元古界官道口群 ,是Pb、Zn、Ag的主要含矿地层。燕山期花岗岩在空间上与矿化关系密切。矿体主要受北西向断裂控制 ,常分布在北西、北东向断裂构造交汇部位。根据地球化学特征、矿产分布规律和找矿标志 ,划分出百炉沟西凹—东凹—磨沟、百炉沟—黄花北沟—杨树凹等两个一级和银窝沟—大石渣沟—小石渣沟、板岔沟等两个二级找矿预测区。     

Method of Data Reduction and Uncertainty Estimation for Platinum-Group Element Data Using Inductively Coupled Plasma-Mass Spectrometry

A data reduction method is described for determining platinum-group element (PGE) abundances by inductively coupled plasma-mass spectrometry (ICP-MS) using external calibration or the method of standard addition. Gravimetric measurement of volumes, the analysis of reference materials and the use of procedural blanks were all used to minimise systematic errors. Internal standards were used to correct for instrument drift. A linear least squares regression model was used to calculate concentrations from drift-corrected counts per second (cps). Furthermore, mathematical manipulations also contribute to the uncertainty estimates of a procedure. Typical uncertainty estimate calculations for ICP-MS data manipulations involve: (1) Carrying standard deviations from the raw cps through the data reduction or (2) calculating a standard deviation from multiple final concentration calculations. It is demonstrated that method 2 may underestimate the uncertainty estimate of the calculated data. Methods 1 and 2 do not typically include an uncertainty estimate component from a regression model. As such models contribute to the uncertainty estimates affecting the calculated data, an uncertainty estimate component from the regression must be included in any final error calculations. Confidence intervals are used to account for uncertainty estimates from the regression model. These confidence intervals are simpler to calculate than uncertainty estimates from method 1, for example. The data reduction and uncertainty estimation method described here addresses problems of reporting PGE data from an article in the literature and addresses both precision and accuracy. The method can be applied to any analytical technique where drift corrections or regression models are used.     

非线性地球物理反演方法:回顾与展望

自20世纪90年代以来，非线性地球物理反演方法已走向成熟，这些方法包括线性化迭代法，仿真淬火法，遗传算法及联合反演方法等，线性化迭代反演基于开放物理系统状态发生相变的原理，要进一步改善模型参数化的技术和迭代过程的自组织；仿真淬火法与遗传算法基于自然过程的指数率或生物演化的优生率，可以相互结合以提高解估计的分辨率与置信度；联合反演要结合岩石物理性质的统计规律，才能取得兼容地质与综合方法的应用效果，地球动力学中的反问题不仅涉及偏微分方程系数项的求解，而且涉及初始条件或初始边界的求解，对地球动力学作用过程研究特别重要。     

天山西部中山带积雪变化趋势与气温和降水的关系——以巩乃斯河谷为例

根据位于巩乃斯河谷的天山积雪雪崩研究站近30年来的年最大雪深、月平均气温、月降水量观测记录，用平均差值法、最小二乘法、自回归滑动平均法检验了天山西部中山带积雪、冷季降水、冷季平均气温的变化趋势，结果表明，天山西部中山带积雪呈增加趋势，近30年来年平均增加1.43%，与青藏高原、南极大陆及格陵兰冰盖表面积雪积累增加相一致。天山西部中山带冷季气温和降水的变化趋势也是增加的，其中冷季降水平年平均增加0．12％，而冷季气温升高了0．8℃，积雪与冷季气温之间存在着弱的负相关关系，而与冷季降水呈显著的正相关关系。积雪的增加主要是因为气候变暖引起的冷季降水的增加对积雪增加的贡献大于由于冷季气温升高而造成积雪减少的贡献的结果。