Analysis of the interannual variability of annual daily extreme water levels in the St Lawrence River and Lake Ontario from 1918 to 2010

We compared the interannual variability of annual daily maximum and minimum extreme water levels in Lake Ontario and the St Lawrence River (Sorel station) from 1918 to 2010, using several statistical tests. The interannual variability of annual daily maximum extreme water levels in Lake Ontario is characterized by a positive long‐term trend showing two shifts in mean (1929–1930 and 1942–1943) and a single shift in variance (in 1958–1959). In contrast, for the St Lawrence River, this interannual variability is characterized by a negative long‐term trend with a single shift in mean, which occurred in 1955–1956. As for annual daily minimum extreme water levels, their interannual variability shows no significant long‐term change in trend. However, for Lake Ontario, the interannual variability of these water levels shows two shifts in mean, which are synchronous with those for maximum water levels, and a single shift in variance, which occurred in 1965–1966. These changes in trend and stationarity (mean and variance) are thought to be due to factors both climatic (the Great Drought of the 1930s) and human (digging of the Seaway and construction of several dams and locks during the 1950s). Despite this change in means and variance, the four series are clearly described by the generalized extreme value distribution. Finally, annual daily maximum and minimum extreme water levels in the St Lawrence and Lake Ontario are negatively correlated with Atlantic multidecadal oscillation over the period from 1918 to 2010. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Prediction of the South China Sea Dipole Using SSA-MEM

ABSTRACT

A dipole structure appears in the sea surface height off the central coast of Vietnam during boreal summer in the South China Sea. This dipole, which possesses a chlorophyll signature associated with higher phytoplankton concentrations arising from nutrient upwelling, is important for the productivity of local fisheries. Multi-satellite sea level anomalies are used to investigate the life cycle of the dipole structure. By applying empirical orthogonal function (EOF) analysis, the third EOF mode (EOF 3) is found to represent the major variations of the dipole structure. By removing the temporal noise of EOF 3, a South China Sea dipole index is defined. This index captures the life cycle of the dipole including its generation, mature strength, and final termination. Both one-dimensional and two-dimensional forecasts are generated using a statistical forecasting method that combines singular-spectrum analysis and the maximum entropy method. The appearance of the dipole structure can be predicted with an accuracy of 78% at one-month lead times and an accuracy of 61% at one-year lead times.     

Evaluation of distributed BMPs in an urban watershed—High resolution modeling for stormwater management

The urban environment modifies the hydrologic cycle resulting in increased runoff rates, volumes, and peak flows. Green infrastructure, which uses best management practices (BMPs), is a natural system approach used to mitigate the impacts of urbanization onto stormwater runoff. Patterns of stormwater runoff from urban environments are complex, and it is unclear how efficiently green infrastructure will improve the urban water cycle. These challenges arise from issues of scale, the merits of BMPs depend on changes to small‐scale hydrologic processes aggregated up from the neighborhood to the urban watershed. Here, we use a hyper‐resolution (1 m), physically based hydrologic model of the urban hydrologic cycle with explicit inclusion of the built environment. This model represents the changes to hydrology at the BMP scale (~1 m) and represents each individual BMP explicitly to represent response over the urban watershed. Our study varies both the percentage of BMP emplacement and their spatial location for storm events of increasing intensity in an urban watershed. We develop a metric of effectiveness that indicates a nonlinear relationship that is seen between percent BMP emplacement and storm intensity. Results indicate that BMP effectiveness varies with spatial location and that type and emplacement within the urban watershed may be more important than overall percent.     

Site characterization model using least‐square support vector machine and relevance vector machine based on corrected SPT data (Nc)

Statistical learning algorithms provide a viable framework for geotechnical engineering modeling. This paper describes two statistical learning algorithms applied for site characterization modeling based on standard penetration test (SPT) data. More than 2700 field SPT values (N) have been collected from 766 boreholes spread over an area of 220 sqkm area in Bangalore. To get N corrected value (N_c), N values have been corrected (N_c) for different parameters such as overburden stress, size of borehole, type of sampler, length of connecting rod, etc. In three‐dimensional site characterization model, the function N_c=N_c (X, Y, Z), where X, Y and Z are the coordinates of a point corresponding to N_c value, is to be approximated in which N_c value at any half‐space point in Bangalore can be determined. The first algorithm uses least‐square support vector machine (LSSVM), which is related to a ridge regression type of support vector machine. The second algorithm uses relevance vector machine (RVM), which combines the strengths of kernel‐based methods and Bayesian theory to establish the relationships between a set of input vectors and a desired output. The paper also presents the comparative study between the developed LSSVM and RVM model for site characterization. Copyright © 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

高分二号卫星影像融合方法探析

图像融合技术是卫星影像处理过程中的一个重要步骤,它可以将全色影像的高空间分辨率特点与多光谱影像的高光谱分辨率特点有机地结合起来,使得融合后的影像更利于后续解译。由于融合处理方法的原理以及获取影像的传感器特性不同,不同的卫星影像适合于不同的融合方法。针对高分二号卫星影像的特点,本文采用Gram-Schmidt融合法、FIHS变换方法、HPF方法、Pansharp方法进行试验。实验结果表明:HPF方法所得融合结果在光谱特性保持方法性能最优,而Pansharp方法融合结果在信息量的保持以及清晰度方面效果更优,因此,在实际应用中,应根据具体需求进行方法选择。     

桂林毛村不同植被类型土壤微生物数量与碳酸酐酶活性比较

以非岩溶区林地为对比,分析了桂林毛村岩溶区4种不同植被类型土壤微生物数量及碳酸酐酶(CA)活性的季度动态变化规律,发现以下主要结果:1随着植被的正向演替,岩溶区弃耕地、草地、灌丛及林地微生物数量及CA活性逐渐升高,微生物总数从64.07×10~4cfu/g上升到178.23×10~4cfu/g,CA活性从0.77 U/g上升到1.82 U/g,岩溶区林地大于非岩溶区林地。2在岩溶区不同植被类型,微生物组成均表现为细菌最多(平均值95.14%),放线菌次之(平均值2.79%),真菌数量最少(平均值1.75%)。而在非岩溶区表现为细菌最多(平均值90.95%),真菌次之(平均值5.32%),放线菌最少(平均值3.73%)。3微生物数量季节动态整体表现为春季至夏季逐渐上升,至秋季达到最高,冬季下降,微生物总数的增长依赖于细菌的倍数增长,真菌和放线菌影响较小。CA活性整体表现为夏季和冬季低于春季和秋季,秋季达到最大值。4 CA活性与细菌及微生物总数呈极显著的正相关,表明土壤CA主要来源于细菌的分泌。     

长江中下游地区暖区暴雨特征分析

利用2007到2013年5-9月间常规和非常规资料以及6 h一次的NCEP 1°×1°再分析资料,将长江中下游地区暖区暴雨按天气形势划分为冷锋前暖区暴雨、暖切变暖区暴雨以及副热带高压边缘暖区暴雨三种类型。统计表明暖区暴雨一般发生在距离切变线(锋线)100~300 km的暖区内。主要结论包括:(1)冷锋型降水强度偏弱且分布均匀,集中在5、6月;暖切变型发生次数最多且强度大,主要发生在6、7月长江中下游地区的偏南部;副热带高压边缘型发生次数最少但强度较大,发生在7、8月。暖区暴雨的发生次数及强度在大别山、皖南山区较为集中。(2)暖区暴雨中短时强降水贡献大。(3)冷锋背景下的暖区暴雨一般产生在锋前低压槽中,暴雨落区与高低空急流耦合有紧密联系;暖切变型以低层暖切变线为主要天气背景,地面常有弱静止锋,暖区对流活动与中尺度急流结构、地形强迫等因素存在较高的相关性;副热带高压边缘暖区暴雨与局地的水汽积累和对流不稳定条件的发展有密切关系。据此建立三类暖区暴雨的概念模型。     

月动力延伸预报500hPa高度场检验及其在重庆月气候预测中降尺度应用

根据2015年国家气候中心实时下发的第二代月动力延伸模式(DERF2.0)逐日资料和历史回算资料,统计构建不同时间起报的月500hPa高度场格点数据序列,针对重庆2月气温和8月降水量方差和预测难度较大的事实,分别分析2010-2014年逐年1月和7月16日、21日、26日、31日起报的2月和8月500hPa高度场预报场与同期NCEP资料实况场的分布型,结果表明：预测效果低纬好于中高纬,8月总体好于2月;基于上述滚动的500hPa预报场,试验了4个关键区和5种统计降尺度方法,对重庆2010-2015年2月气温和2010-2014年8月降水量进行回报预测和检验结果表明,16日起报的模式场对2月气温有较好的参考价值,配合最好的关键区为本区上空,而降尺度方案中Lamb方法效果最佳,二者结合的预测效果最好;8月降水回报检验表明,虽然8月降水预测效果不如2月气温,但在预测关键区取自定义关键区时,车氏方法的降尺度方案预测效果相对较好。     

中国地面气温统计降尺度预报方法研究

利用中国752个基本、基准地面气象观测站2000—2010年地面温度日值数据,采用具有自适应特征的Kalman滤波类型的递减平均统计降尺度技术,对中国地面温度进行精细化预报研究。分析该方案的降尺度效果,并与常用插值降尺度方法进行比较。结果表明:1)递减平均统计降尺度技术相比插值方法有较大的提高,显著减小东西部预报效果差异,1~3 d预报的均方根误差减小了1.4℃;2)该方案1~3 d预报的均方根误差为1.5℃,预报误差从东南地区(均方根误差为1.4℃)向西北地区(均方根误差为1.8℃)逐渐增大,并且预报效果夏季优于冬季。因此,递减平均统计降尺度技术对中国地面温度进行精细化预报是可行的。     

《遥感学报》20年:从热点到前沿

为反映《遥感学报》及中国遥感学科近20年的发展趋势,针对《遥感学报》在1997年—2015年期间出版的所有1804篇论文进行了统计分析,给出了国内高校及研究机构的发文量排名和受国家自然科学基金资助的发文情况,并对比了常设栏目和专题栏目的论文发文量及被引用情况。通过比较4个时间段内论文关键词的共现关系,反映出随着新的卫星载荷不断发射,观测技术由单一观测变为多源卫星观测,遥感定量反演模型由简单变得更为复杂,遥感技术应用也由最初的测绘、国土调查等单一应用逐渐变为多学科交叉应用,特别是在近年来国内外社会热点的驱动下,遥感技术已开始在灾害应急、全球变化、大气污染、粮食安全等领域发挥出越来越重要的作用。此外,无论是在当前遥感学科发展还是国家需求的现状下,都迫切需要建立国家级的遥感应用综合信息系统,以提高对环境和资源的宏观调控能力,为中国经济和社会可持续发展战略、布局和趋势预测,为资源管理、环境保护、防灾减灾以及实现资源环境、经济、社会的宏观调控,提供科学的数据和决策支持。