吉林省水旱灾害规律分析

水旱灾害在自然灾害中占有重大比重，对人类危害极大，正确认识水旱灾害发生的规律与特点，对防治与减轻自然灾害有着重要作用。对吉林省水旱灾害的危害及其发生规律和特点进行了分析。     

油气化探综合异常模糊划分动态聚类分级评价

通过选取描述油气化探综合异常的各种特征参量，借助模糊数学工具，利用最优聚类中心所具有的代表特征，建立分级指标，对油气化探综合进行分级评价。鄂尔多斯盆地油气化探综合异常的评价实例结果表明，利用油气化探综合异常各种特征参量进行动态聚类分级评价是可行的。     

长江日流量混沌变化特性研究——Ⅰ相空间嵌入滞时的确定

为了以新途径探索长江水量变化规律并在此基础上做出预测,全面而系统地研究了宜昌站日流量混沌变化特性并建立了新预测模型.重点论述相空间嵌入滞时的确定.分析了传统的自相关函数法和真实矢量场法确定嵌入滞时的优劣,并提出以广义相关函数合理确定嵌入滞时的方法.研究结果表明广义相关函数法是一个合理又可操作的途径.     

青海平安电磁辐射在中强震前短期前兆异常特征及预报效能研究

分析和整理了青海平安电磁辐射台自1993年7月以来的资料，发现震前平安单台电磁辐射在中强地震临震前有最大脉冲信号，并通过对无震异常，地震异常的分析判断，对其预报效能进行了R值评价。     

江淮地区地震烈度衰减关系的研究

地震烈度衰减关系具有较强的地区性,这是由于不同地区的震源特性、传播介质和场地条件的不同而引起.研究区(北纬29°～35°,东经114°～120°)位于华北地震区和华南地震区之间的过渡地区,地震活动性总体水平不高,烈度衰减关系有其自身的震源特性、传播介质和场地衰减特性等.本次工作重新挑选震例,对研究区的地震烈度衰减规律进行了统计回归分析,并与该地区已有的地震烈度衰减关系进行认真的比较分析.     

德令哈6．6级地震前地震活动及地震序列特征

德令哈6．6级地震发生在青海省地震局2003年度会商确定的应注意地区内，震前测震学出现多项中短期异常。该地震序列从其能量释放比、震级差均符合主震一余震型判断指标，为主震-余震型序列。序列跟踪工作总结出该序列早期阶段(20天内)预测强余震的几项指标。     

石泉ML4．7级地震前天水深井水温的短临异常特征

分析了天水台数字深井水温资料在陕西石泉ML4．7级地震前的异常特征，发现在震前5天内深井水温发生大幅度的降升变化，呈负脉冲形态，表现为典型的脉冲型前兆异常形态特征。     

Statistical tests for regional seismic phase characterizations

In seismic analysis some assumptions are often made aboutthe data, e.g. stationarity and Gaussianity. This is not obvious for all realseismic data. Here, we use statistical tests for characterization of regionalseismic data. We apply tests for stationarity, symmetry, linearity, andtime-reversibility. In the analysis we use twelve regional seismic events inFennoscandia recorded with the seismic small-aperture arrays NORESS,ARCESS and FINESA at hypocentral distances in the range from 160 to1580 km. For the tests we use the regional phases Pn, secondary P, Sn and Lg-phases and the preceding noise. Two of the eventsare explosions, two are rockbursts and eight are earthquakes. Theperformance and possibilities of using statistical tests based on bispectra, asa complementary tool for conventional analysis of seismic phases isdemonstrated. The preceding noise recorded before the first onset of theP-wave for the twelve events is tested to be spatially stationarybetween each channel within each array and temporal stationary in 21consecutive time windows of 3.2 sec each. Also, the preceding noise issymmetric and linear. The seismic phases defined by the symmetry test asnon-Gaussian (not symmetric) are all linear. This means a linear model canbe used to characterize both the noise and the phases. The first P-phase for the two explosions is characterized as non-Gaussian at thethree arrays. For all 36 possibly first P-phase arrivals at the three arraystations, 23 are non-Gaussian. The second P-phase is non-Gaussian at13 of 36 data records, the S-phase at eleven of 36 and the Lg-phase at nine of 36. For all the four phases more than 32 of possible36 are time-reversible.     

利用NOAA AVHRR数据研究北半球雪盖气候学特征

利用NOAA卫星图像,研究了北半球、欧亚、北美和青藏高原雪盖气候学特征及其变化趋势.指出北半球、欧亚和北美雪盖气候变化趋势基本一致,年均雪盖面积在1987年前后明显下降; 而青藏高原雪盖面积在1984年后明显下降,说明青藏高原雪盖的年际变化与北半球及欧亚、北美不完全一致.     

Predictive GIS-Based Model of Rockfall Activity in Mountain Cliffs

Rockfall susceptibility has been analysed in mountain cliffs of the Cantabrian Range, North Spain. The main aim of this analysis has been to build a predictive model of rockfall activity from a low number of environmental and geological variables. The rockfall activity has been quantified in a GIS. The cartographic information used shows the spatial distribution of all the recent talus screes as well as their associated source areas in the rock-slopes. The area relation At/Ar (recent talus scree polygon/source basins) in the rock slopes has been used as the rockfall activity indicator. This relation has been validated in 50 pilot rock-slopes and compared with the relation number of recent rock fragments/source basin, obtained from field work. The environmental factors causing rockfall depend on the rock slope situation, and these are: altitude and sun radiation on the rock cliff. The geological factors considered are: lithology, relative position of the main discontinuities with respect to the topographic surface and two morphologic parameters: the roughness and slope gradient. A logistic regression analysis has been applied to a population of 442 limestone and quartzite rock cliffs. The dependent variable is the rockfall activity indicator, which allows the definition of two classes of rock cliff units: low and high activity. The independent variables are altitude, sun radiation (equinox radiation, summer solstice radiation, winter solstice radiation), slope roughness, slope gradient,anisotropy and lithology. Results suggest that it is possible tobuild a valid cartographic predictive model for rockfall activity in mountain rock cliffs from a limited number of easily obtainable variables. The method is especially applicable in massive rock slopes or in regions with uniform rock mass characteristics.