莱州湾温带风暴潮预报研究

本文依据莱州湾羊角沟、夏营两站建国以来的风暴增水资料，对莱州湾建国后发生的风暴潮进行了统计分析，并探讨了温带风暴潮产生的物理机制，此外还对莱州湾温带风暴增水以及诱发增水的天气形势进行了分析分类。在此基础上建立了莱州湾温带风暴潮统计预报方法，并在作业预报中对模型进行了检验，取得较为理想的效果。     

Calibration of LRFD Format for Steel Jacket Offshore Platforms in China Offshore Area （ 1 ） ： Statistical Parameters of Loads and Resistances

1 .IntroductionThe structural design method has evolvedfromthe workingstress method,damage stage methodtolimit state method.The more recent probabilisticlimit state design method,whichis based onreliabili-tytheory,has beengenerallyacceptedinthe designcode…     

香港附近海区台风波浪的波群统计分析

根据香港附近海区１９８５，１９８６年两次台风大浪的实测资料，以有效波高为相应水平，对波群作统计分析，得出可供海洋工程参考的波群连长、波群重复长度、波群出现频率以及波群中最大波高与有效波高的关系等。并将统计值与理论值作比较，结果表明：统计值大于“连”的理论值，而与包线理论中采用合田修正公式的汁算值相近。     

Gradation affects basic mechanical characteristics of Chinese calcareous sand as airport subgrade of reefs

Abstract

Construction of the reefs in the South China Sea is a significant foundation to the secure stability and economic development of China. The construction of an airport runway is necessary for this realization. The calcareous sand is the main primary material in the runway construction. A certain type of calcareous sand near a certain reef of the South China Sea was studied in this paper. To investigate this specific calcareous sand, quartz sand was used as a reference for comparison. Microscopic 3-D imaging, compression and triaxial tests were conducted to test the micro, squeezing and shear properties. The effect mechanism of gradation on the calcareous sand’s compressibility and shear characteristics are discussed from a mesoscopic viewpoint using 3-D morphology. Calcareous sand particles are multiangular and flatter in comparison with quartz sand. The larger the particle sizes are, the more different the two sands’ morphologies are. The compressibility of calcareous sand is greater, and the effect of the coarse fraction (5–1?mm) content in the gradation plays the most significant role in this feature. When the coarse particles’ content is less than 25% and the mass ratio of the middle and fine particles (M) is constant, there is the worst coarse fraction content causing the calcareous sand to be most likely compressed. The worst coarse fraction content decreases with the increase in M, and an empirical formula is proposed. When the gradation, relative density and confining pressure are the same, the peak shear stress and strain of calcareous sand are all at a high level. The effect of confining pressure is manifested in calcareous sand. The shear strength and dilation of calcareous sand are also most affected by the medium coarse fraction (5–0.25?mm) content.     

江苏岸外辐射沙脊群东沙稳定性研究

东沙是江苏岸外辐射沙脊群中的第二大沙洲,具有独特的地形地貌和水动力条件,对它进行稳定性研究为揭示整个辐射沙洲及其邻近岸滩的动态演变都非常有益。通过利用多年遥感卫片资料、1998年取得的现场水文泥沙观测资料和东沙滩面表层沉积物资料等,对东沙的地形地貌特征、沉积特征和东沙两侧潮汐通道的水流泥沙特征等进行了详细分析。研究结果表明,东沙的沙脊偏于西侧,西侧滩面较窄、高程较高且岸线较为顺直,东侧滩面较宽、高程较低且岸线较为破碎;西洋和陈家坞槽均处于冲刷状态,净输沙的主要方向为输向槽外或输向条子泥;东沙近三十年来面积有所缩小且有外围向中央收缩的趋势,尤其以向东、向南方向的迁移最为明显。     

Optimum Sample Size to Detect Perturbation Effects: The Importance of Statistical Power Analysis – A Critique

Abstract. The current article describes statistical power analysis as an efficient strategy for the estimation of the optimum sample size. The principle aim is constructively to criticise and enrich the results presented by Mouillot et al. (1999) , who estimate the optimum sample size for evaluating possible perturbations. The authors did not make any reference to statistical power analysis, even though their objective clearly went beyond a simple stock evaluation to assess management strategies in a particular marine ecosystem. Surprisingly, they proposed (a priori) an ANOVA design to test a hypothesis considering both space and temporal scales. However, the authors did not cover important topics related with power analysis and the precautionary principle, both used into environment impact assessment programmes for marine ecosystems. Based on their results and on statistical power analysis, it is demonstrated that the variability (dispersion statistics), a key factor they used to estimate the sample size, is less relevant than the magnitude of perturbation (effect size). Therefore, a greater effort must be devoted to estimate the effect size of a particular phenomenon rather than a desired variability.     

Investigation of the hydrate reservoir production under different depressurization modes

Abstract

Large reserves of natural gas hydrates exist, and the depressurization method has the greatest potential for gas hydrate reservoir recovery. Currently, the most commonly adopted depressurization simulation method is a constant bottom-hole pressure production scheme. This study proposes a new depressurization mode with decreasing bottom-hole pressure. The production characteristic was numerically investigated using this method. The results show the following: (1) As the depressurization exponent (n) decreases, the development effect improves, and production indexes including cumulative gas production/dissociation and gas-water ratio increase. However, the reservoir energy consumption is higher and the hydrate reformation is more severe. (2) Compared to the proposed depressurization mode, the hydrate production index of the constant bottom-hole pressure production (n?=?0) is better. However, the hydrate reservoir energy consumption is higher and the hydrate reformation is more severe using constant bottom-hole pressure production. (3) To achieve a balance between production and reservoir energy consumption during depressurization production, the bottom-hole pressure should be controlled by selecting a suitable depressurization exponent between n_min and n_max, which can be determined through numerical simulations.     

Heavy metals in marine sediments of Taranto Gulf (Ionian Sea, Southern Italy)

Al, Cr, Cu, Fe, Hg, Mn, Ni, Pb, Ti and Zn concentrations have been determined in surface sediment samples collected in the Taranto Gulf (Ionian Sea, Southern Italy) in order to evaluate their levels and spatial distribution in this important area of the Mediterranean Sea. For various metals, the geoaccumulation index has been calculated as a criterion to assess if their concentrations represent contamination levels or can be considered as background levels. The results show that metals concentrations in sediments can be considered near the background levels found in the Mediterranean Sea.Analytical results have been elaborated by using a Geographical Information System (GIS) software to show metals accumulation areas. Using multivariate statistical analysis, we evaluate the possibility to distinguish the sampling stations, in relation to their geographical position. Results have showed metals distribution in the Taranto Gulf is principally influenced by industrial and urban wastes, located mostly in the northern coastal area of the Ionian Sea. Rivers in the Basilicata region and prevailing anticlockwise marine currents are further factors influencing metal accumulation in sediments.     

Effect of Sea Level Variation on Tidal Characteristic Values for the East China Sea

1 .IntroductionTheglobalairtemperatureroseabout 0 .5～ 0 .6°Coverthepast 2 0thcentury ,andtheglobalmeansealevelincreasedbyabout2 0cmduringtheperiod .Theregionalmeansealevelriseswiththerisingglobalmeansealevel.Zuoetal.( 1 997)indicatedthatthemeanrisingrateofabsolutemeansealevelalongtheChinacoastontheassumptionofunifiedisostaticdatumis 2mm a .Woodworth( 1 999)analyzedsealevelspanning 1 76 8tothepresentinLiverpool,andobtainedaseculartrendforheperiodupto 1 880of0 .39± 0 .1 7mm a ,andatrendfort…