An integrated hydrological model for rain‐induced landslide prediction

This paper describes an extension to the Combined Hydrology And Stability Model (CHASM) to fully include the effects of vegetation and slope plan topography on slope stability. The resultant physically based numerical model is designed to be applied to site‐specific slopes in which a detailed assessment of unsaturated and saturated hydrology is required in relation to vegetation, topography and slope stability. Applications are made to the Hawke's Bay region in New Zealand where shallow‐seated instability is strongly associated with spatial and temporal trends in vegetation cover types, and the Mid‐Levels region in Hong Kong, an area subject to a variety of landslide mechanisms, some of which may be subject to strong topographic control. An improved understanding of process mechanism, afforded by the model, is critical for reliable and appropriate design of slope stabilization and remedial measures. Copyright © 2002 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

长江三峡工程蓄水对链子崖危岩体T8-T12缝段稳定性影响研究

三峡水库蓄水后,已治理的链子崖危岩体,特别是T8-T12缝段岩体将受到江水的长期作用和影响,直接关系到防治工程的成败.通过大量实地调查和岩体测试,着重论述水库蓄水对T8-T12裂缝及其充填物的作用和影响;并以此为基础,用改进的Sarma法对该段危岩体的稳定性进行重新计算和评价,得出一系列新的结论:总体上,长江水位抬升后,水对裂缝的溶蚀作用和劈裂作用,使裂缝整体加宽,不利于危岩体的稳定;考虑岩体和承重阻滑键取长期强度和江水位骤然升降,以及地震影响,链子崖危岩体整体稳定性将恶化,但NE20°方向稳定程度好于NW350°.     

Static deformation of two welded monoclinic elastic half-spaces due to a long inclined strike-slip fault

Static deformation of two monoclinic elastic half-spaces in welded contact due to a long inclined strike-slip fault situated in one of the half-spaces is studied analytically and numerically. Closed-form algebraic expressions for the displacement at any point of the medium are obtained. The variation of the displacement at the interface with the horizontal distance from the fault is studied. The effect of anisotropy on the displacement field is examined. It is found that while the anisotropy of the source half-space has a significant effect on the displacement at the interface, the anisotropy of the other half-space has only a marginal effect.     

How to obtain alert velocity thresholds for large rockslides

A reliable forecast of the failure stage of large rockslides is difficult, because of non-linear time dependency of displacements and seasonal effects. Aim of this paper is to suggest a practical method to prepare alert thresholds for large rockslides, assessing critical values of velocity for carrying out civil protection actions using monitoring data. Adopted data concern the 20 Mm³ Ruinon rockslide (Valfurva, Central Alps, Italy), still evolving and suitable to originate a fast moving rock avalanche. Multitemporal analysis of aerial photos, LIDAR-ALTM laser topography, field survey and geomechanical analyses allowed to infer the rockslide kinematics and better understand data provided by a monitoring network including distometers, extensometers, GPS benchmarks and inclinometers. The analysis of displacement and rainfall data over five years (1997–2001) allowed to recognise three different evolutionary patterns of displacements, showing a continuously increasing rate since 1997. Data representing large-scale behaviour of the rock mass were fitted by power-law curves, according to the “accelerating creep” model by Voight, in order to evaluate a suitable failure time. This was hampered by the large seasonal deviations, which can significantly delay the occurrence of failure. Data were fitted using the Voight’s equation, expressed in terms of displacement, through non-linear estimation techniques, in order to find values of the controlling parameters (A, α and t_f) suitable to represent the mechanical behaviour of the rock mass approaching the failure. This allowed to compute velocity–time theoretical curves and to define different velocity threshold values (pre-alert, alert and emergency) to be used for emergency management.     

水对断层摩擦滑动稳定性的影响

在不同含水条件下研究了光面、含脆性物质夹层和含延性物质夹层 3类断层的摩擦滑动行为 ,认为水对断层滑动稳定性和摩擦滑动的速度依赖性有重要影响。建立了含有岩性、围压 (深度 )和含水量 3因素的断层活动稳定性的模式 ,认为脆性断层更多地表现为速度弱化 ,少量水的存在易于出现黏滑 ,高孔隙压时会表现为稳滑 ;半脆性或半延性的断层在少量水或较低孔隙压的情况下会表现出速度弱化 ,也就可能出现黏滑 ,但孔隙压较高后 ,会表现出速度强化 ,滑动也就会是稳定的 ;延性断层多为速度强化 ,不出现黏滑。提出水的进入降低了系统的稳定性 ,水的存在增加了系统的稳定性。这是考虑水或一般流体对岩体或断层活动稳定性影响时需要考虑的两个方面     

结构动力反应分析的三阶显式方法

本通过对传统动力反应分析方法的总结，阐明了建立隐式和显式方法的一般思路及数学本质，提出了使用系统位移反向向量三阶导数的隐工和实用显式积分方法－3阶显式方法，分析了该显式方法的精度和稳定性，并对建立更高阶隐式和显式方法以及方法的精度和稳定性作了初步讨论。最后，通过算例对本方法、献[1]方法和经典的常平均加速度法（隐式方法、视为精确解）的精度和稳定性进行了比较分析。结果表明，本方法具有明显的优点。     

Investigating Landslides Caused by Earthquakes – A Historical Review

Post-earthquake field investigations of landslide occurrence have provided a basis for understanding, evaluating, and mapping the hazard and risk associated withearthquake-induced landslides. This paper traces thehistorical development of knowledge derived from these investigations. Before 1783, historical accounts of the occurrence of landslides in earthquakes are typically so incomplete and vague that conclusions based on these accounts are of limited usefulness. For example, the number of landslides triggered by a given event is almost always greatly underestimated. The first formal, scientific post-earthquake investigation that included systematic documentation of the landslides was undertaken in the Calabria region of Italy after the 1783 earthquake swarm. From then until the mid-twentieth century, the best information on earthquake-induced landslides came from a succession ofpost-earthquake investigations largely carried out by formal commissions that undertook extensive ground-based field studies. Beginning in the mid-twentieth century, when the use of aerial photography became widespread, comprehensive inventories of landslide occurrence have been made for several earthquakes in the United States, Peru, Guatemala, Italy, El Salvador, Japan, and Taiwan. Techniques have also been developed for performing ``retrospective' analyses years or decades after an earthquake that attempt to reconstruct the distribution of landslides triggered by the event. The additional use of Geographic Information System (GIS) processing and digital mapping since about 1989 has greatly facilitated the level of analysis that can applied to mapped distributions of landslides. Beginning in 1984, syntheses of worldwide and national data on earthquake-induced landslides have defined their general characteristics and relations between their occurrence and various geologic and seismic parameters. However, the number of comprehensive post-earthquake studies of landslides is still relatively small, and one of the most pressing needs in this area of research is for the complete documentation of landslides triggered by many more earthquakes in a wider variety of environments.     

边坡立体绿化工程的稳定性

山地城市有许多大面积锚杆喷浆硬化封闭的边坡与城市景观极不协调，为改变这些生硬，单调的自然坡体现状，政府要求对其进行立体绿化。本文以修建黄花园大桥石板坡立交工程形成的石板坡为例，通过多种方法研究了绿化荷载作用对边坡稳定性的影响，结论表明绿化荷载对边坡的稳定性影响较小，只要施工顺序得当可以保证安全。