Impact of explosive eruption scenarios at Vesuvius

In the paper the first attempt at the definition of a model to assess the impact of a range of different volcanic hazards on the building structures is presented. This theoretical approach has been achieved within the activities of the EXPLORIS Project supported by the EU. A time history for Sub-Plinian I eruptive scenario of the Vesuvius is assumed by taking advantage of interpretation of historical reports of volcanic crises of the past [Carafa, G. 1632. In opusculum de novissima Vesuvij conflagratione, epistola isagogica, 2^a ed. Napoli, Naples; Mascolo, G.B., 1634. De incendio Vesuvii excitato xvij. Kal. Ianuar. anno trigesimo primo sæculi Decimiseptimi libri X. Cum Chronologia superiorum incendiorum; & Ephemeride ultimi. Napoli; Varrone, S., 1634. Vesuviani incendii historiae libri tres. Napoli], numerical simulations [Neri, A., Esposti Ongaro, T., Macedonio, G., Gidaspow, D., 2003. Multiparticle simulation of collapsing volcanic columns and pyroclastic flows. J. Geophys. Res. Lett. 108, 2202. doi:10.1029/2001 JB000508; Macedonio, G., Costa, A., Longo, A., 2005. HAZMAP: a computer model for volcanic ash fallout and assessment of subsequent hazard. Comput. Geosci. 31,837–845; Costa, A., Macedonio, G., Folch, A., 2006. A three-dimensional Eulerian model for transport and deposition of volcanic ashes. Earth Planet. Sci. Lett. 241,634–647] and experts' elicitations [Aspinall, W.P., 2006. Structured elicitation of expert judgment for probabilistic hazard and risk assessment in volcanic eruptions. In: Mader, H.M. Coles, S.G. Connor, C.B. Connor, L.J. (Eds), Statistics in Volcanology. Geological Society of London on behalf of IAVCEI, pp.15–30; Woo, G., 1999. The Mathematics of Natural Catastrophes. Imperial College Press, London] from which the impact on the building structures is derived. This is achieved by an original definition of vulnerability functions for multi-hazard input and a dynamic cumulative damage model. Factors affecting the variability of the final scenario are highlighted. The results show the high sensitivity of hazard combinations in time and space distribution and address how to mitigate building vulnerability to subsequent eruptive phenomena [Baxter, P., Spence, R., Zuccaro, G., 2008-this issue. Risk mitigation and emergency measures at Vesuvius].     

中国农业氧化亚氮排放情景研究

采用国际应用系统分析研究所的"牲畜和粮食产量动态模型",模拟出2000-2030年间中国粮食和牲畜的数量和需求量的地理分布,然后应用GAINS模型预测我国未来农业N2O排放量。结果显示,2000年我国农业N2O排放量为1533ktN2O,到2030年将增加到2000ktN2O左右,增长31%;农田N2O排放占农业N2O总排放量的80%,2030年农田N2O的排放量比2000年增长37%。由于活动水平数据的模拟结果不同,各情景的N2O排放量不同,其中INMIC_低情景中N2O的排放量稍高于中、高排放情景。我国农业N2O排放主要集中在山东、河南、四川、河北,江苏、湖南、云南、安徽等省,到2030年,黑龙江、内蒙古、新疆、云南和湖南五省的N2O增加量在30ktN2O以上。硝化抑制剂作为N2O的减排措施,从2015年开始实施,减排效率由4%上升到16%。采用IPCC默认排放因子会高估我国农田N2O排放。     

土体极限分析的基本方程与广义极限平衡法

对屈服条件与屈服函数的极值条件进行了讨论,在不需要流动法则的情况下建立了速度方程。平衡方程、屈服条件与屈服函数的极值条件、速度方程就是土体极限分析的基本方程。这样,对荷载、速度边界条件（包括荷载与速度边界同时存在）,均构成了完备的极限平衡问题。对边坡稳定问题的上、下限定理给出了严密的证明,并建立了求解极限平衡问题的广义极限平衡法,均质土的计算结果表明,圆弧滑动面的广义极限平衡法与对数螺旋面的上限解法基本一致。     

塔克拉玛干沙漠公路固沙植物立地条件分区评价

塔克拉玛干沙漠公路沿线气候恶劣、土壤和浅层地下水的含盐量高,沿线天然植被稀少,沙漠腹地仅发现12种能忍耐干旱和抗盐的植物种。经过科学试验,已经解决了沙漠腹地灌溉条件下固沙植物引种、选育和咸水灌溉等一系列人工绿地建设的技术难题,并且已经引种固沙植物50多种,建成沙漠公路固沙、基地绿化人工绿地43.3 hm2。沙漠人工植物栽培离不开灌溉。因此,主要从沿线土壤盐分状况,可利用水资源分布来评价植物固沙的立地条件。评价结果,在塔里木河近现代冲积平原有古河道淡水可以利用,昆仑山山前冲洪积扇普遍赋存可以利用的咸水。但全线可利用水资源的量不足以维持常规灌溉方式,必须采取节水灌溉,尽量节省资源,一些地方生物防沙要结合工程固沙,形成工程生物防沙体系,保证公路的畅通。     

Hazard-consistent earthquake scenarios

Earthquake-resistant design and seismic analysis often require the earthquake action to be represented in the form of acceleration time-histories. Real accelerograms can be selected based on matching an earthquake scenario, defined by magnitude and distance, and scaled if necessary. The scaled accelerograms should reflect the hazard in terms of the parameters that characterise the inelastic demand on structures, including response spectral ordinates, duration and energy content. In order to maintain realistic ground motions, the scaling factors should not differ greatly from unity. It is found that in many cases, where the hazard is influenced by more than one seismic source, it is impossible to define a single earthquake scenario that is compatible with the results of probabilistic seismic hazard assessment. Even if a hazard-consistent scenario can be defined, there are difficulties encountered in using the results to select and scale real accelerograms.     

Mapping soil effects in Barcelona, Spain, through an integrated GIS environment

Maps of soil response for the city of Barcelona have been for the first time obtained through a GIS environment that integrates the different procedures for soil response estimation within a single tool. These maps constitute part of the results of the local scale application of the computer prototype for seismic risk assessment that was developed within the European project SERGISAI. The approach involves: collection of available data relevant to local geology, implementation of geotechnical models, estimation of the reference seismic action, generation of synthetic strong-motion time histories, and soil response calculation through 1D analytical method. The resulting predictive hazard maps of predominant period and amplification ratio delineate potential variations on ground shaking and constitute a first approximation towards an integrated approach to Barcelona urban area microzonation. Analysis of the observed differences, when comparing the analytical results in this study with previous empirical studies, provides a useful feedback to establish site dependence suitability and reliability of methods, to extract information on at-present inaccessible parameters needed for the characterisation of physical properties of soil, and also to delimit those areas where further in-depth survey research is needed for a proper seismic hazard assessment.     

水泥土强度的影响因素

水泥浆体搅拌地基加固技术是地基处理的技术方法之一,其水泥—土固结体的强度主要受地基土的含水量、水泥掺入量及地基土类别的影响。本文通过室内及工业性试验表明:土体的含水量对水泥土强度具有负作用;水泥土强度与水泥掺入比不是简单的单调上升关系;地基土的类别对水泥土强度的影响较大,淤泥及淤泥质土由于富含有机质,强度较低,粉质粘土、粘土形成的水泥土强度较高。      

未来不同气候变化情景下我国玉米产量的初步预测

玉米是我国重要的粮食和饲料作物,研究气候变化对我国玉米产量的影响有重要意义。采用区域气候模式与CERES Maize模型相结合的方法,模拟了基准气候（BS,1961—1990年）和A2、B2两种温室气体排放方案下2011—2100年我国雨养和灌溉玉米产量,初步预测了未来不同气候情景下玉米产量的变化状况。结果表明,如果保持现有的玉米生产状况,气候变化将导致我国玉米主产区的玉米单产普遍降低,总产下降,给玉米生产带来一定经济损失。A2气候变化情景对我国玉米产量的负面影响要大于B2情景。CO2肥效作用可以在一定程度上缓解这种负面影响,其缓解作用对雨养玉米更明显。未来全国玉米主产区的雨养和灌溉玉米的稳产风险及低产出现的概率将会增大,总产的年际波动更剧烈。由于目前研究结果是未考虑农业生产的适应措施而得出的,可能会高估气候变化的负面影响。     

Stabilization of swelling clays by Mg(OH)2. Changes in clay properties after addition of Mg-hydroxide

Stabilization of the swelling clay structure is attempted by intercalation of Mg(OH)₂ and the development of a brucite interlayer between the clay layers. The properties of the product obtained by applying the technique, formulated as described in a previous work, are considered here. The materials used were Wyoming bentonite (USA), Fuller's Earth (UK), kaolinite, illite, lignite, and silica gels. The Mg(OH)₂-clay products were examined by the methylene blue dye test, X-ray diffraction analysis (XRD), differential thermal analysis (DTA), and derivative thermogravimetry analysis (DTGA). From the results obtained it is concluded that: the Mg-hydroxide is adsorbed by swelling clays both on their external and internal surface, whereas it is adsorbed on the external surface by non-swelling clays. The internally adsorbed phase of Mg-hydroxide forms an ill-defined interlayer of brucite, retarding swelling, whereas the external phase covers the particles modifying drastically their surface properties, like the adsorption of the MB dye. The material produced after precipitation of Mg-hydroxide on swelling clays (smectites) did not re-expand on wetting or after glycolation. The adsorption of MB dye was also reduced by some 80–90%, due to coating effect, preventing the measurements of the external surface area of the clay by polar molecules. The principal forces involved in the process are believed to be physical adsorption on the external surface, along with chemisorption and some chemical bonding, mostly in the internal surface. Cementation due to crystallization and, in the long term, some pozzolanic reactions take also place. Internal adsorption of the Mg-hydroxide is postulated to be in the form of positively charged mono- and/or small polymers and it is, chiefly, diffusion controlled. Since Mg-hydroxide is internally adsorbed by swelling clays, whereas Ca-hydroxide(lime) is not, and the (Mg, Ca)-clay aggregates are more stable than the Ca-clay or the Mg-one, the combination of the two hydroxides could give better results in soil stabilization than each hydroxide alone.     

两种不同减排情景下21世纪气候变化的数值模拟

利用国家气候中心最新发展的气候系统模式BCC-CSM1.0模拟了相对于B1排放情景,两种不同减排情景(De90和De07,表示按照B1情景排放到2012年,之后线性递减,至2050年时CO_2排放水平分别达到1990和2007年排放水平一半的情景)对全球和中国区域气候变化的影响.结果表明:两种减排情景下模式模拟的全球平均地表气温在21世纪40年代以后明显低于Bl情景,比减排情景浓度低于B1的时间延迟了20年左右;尽管De90减排情景在2050年所达到的稳定排放水平低于De07情景,但De90情景下的全球增温在2070年以后才一致低于De07情景,这种滞后町能与耦合系统(主要足海洋)的惯性有关;至21世纪末,De90和De07情景下的全球增温幅度分别比B1情景降低了0.4和0.2℃;从全球分布来看,B1情景下21世纪后30年的增温幅度在北半球高纬度和极地地区最大,减排情景能够显著减少这些地区的增温幅度,减排程度越大,则减少越多;在中国区域,B1情景下21世纪末平均增温比全球平均高约1.2℃,减排情景De90和De07分别比B1情景降低了0.4和0.3℃,中国北方地区增温幅度高于南方及沿海地区,减排情景能够显著减小中国西部地区的增温幅度;B1情景下21世纪后30年伞球增温在冬季最高,De90和De07情景分别能够降低各个季节全球升温幅度的17%和10%左右.