The use of PPP or MER in the construction of emission scenarios is more than a question of ‘metrics’

Abstract

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)'s Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES, IPCC, 2000) has been a matter of debate since Ian Castles and David Henderson claimed that the scenarios were based on unsound economics, giving rise to improbably high emission growth. A main point in their critique was that the scenario-makers converted national gross domestic product (GDP) data to a common measure using market exchange rates (MER) rather than purchasing power parity (PPP) rates. The IPCC responded to the critique by claiming that the use of PPP- or MER-based measures is just a question of ‘metrics’, as important as the ‘switch from degrees Celsius to Fahrenheit’. This paper addresses both the critique from Castles and Henderson and the response from the IPCC. It builds on our earlier argument that the use of MER-based measures, although misleading in some respects, probably has not given rise to seriously exaggerated emission forecasts because comparing regional income levels by the use of MER has two types of implications that draw in different directions and effectively neutralize one another. Nevertheless, we argue that the choice between MER and PPP in the construction of emission scenarios is far more than just a question of metrics. Finally, we discuss whether the SRES scenario with the lowest cumulative emissions is a reasonable lower limit with respect to global emission growth.     

National GHG emissions reduction pledges and 2°C: comparison of studies

This article provides further detail on expected global GHG emission levels in 2020, based on the Emissions Gap Report (United Nations Environment Programme, December 2010), assuming the emission reduction proposals in the Copenhagen Accord and Cancun Agreements are met. Large differences are found in the results of individual groups owing to uncertainties in current and projected emission estimates and in the interpretation of the reduction proposals. Regardless of these uncertainties, the pledges for 2020 are expected to deliver emission levels above those that are consistent with a 2°C limit. This emissions gap could be narrowed through implementing the more stringent conditional pledges, minimizing the use of ‘lenient’ credits from forests and surplus emission units, avoiding double-counting of offsets and implementing measures beyond current pledges. Conversely, emission reduction gains from countries moving from their low to high ambition pledges could be more than offset by the use of ‘lenient’ land use, land-use change and forestry (LULUCF) credits and surplus emissions units, if these were used to the maximum. Laying the groundwork for faster emission reduction rates after 2020 appears to be crucial in any case.     

Brazil beyond 2020: from deforestation to the energy challenge

The main assumptions and findings are presented on a comparative analysis of three GHG long-term emissions scenarios for Brazil. Since 1990, land-use change has been the most important source of GHG emissions in the country. The voluntary goals to limit Brazilian GHG emissions pledged a reduction in between 36.1% and 38.9% of GHG emissions projected to 2020, to be 6–10% lower than in 2005. Brazil is in a good position to meet the voluntary mitigation goals pledged to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) up to 2020: recent efforts to reduce deforestation have been successful and avoided deforestation will form the bulk of the emissions reduction commitment. In 2020, if governmental mitigation goals are met, then GHG emissions from the energy system would become the largest in the country. After 2020, if no additional mitigation actions are implemented, GHG emissions will increase again in the period 2020–2030, due to population and economic growth driving energy demand, supply and GHG emissions. However, Brazil is in a strong position to take a lead in low-carbon economic and social development due to its huge endowment of renewable energy resources allowing for additional mitigation actions to be adopted after 2020.

Policy relevance

The period beyond 2020 is now relevant in climate policy due to the Durban Platform agreeing a ‘protocol, legal instrument or agreed outcome with legal force’ that will have effect from 2020. After 2020, Brazil will be in a situation more similar to other industrialized countries, faced with a new challenge of economic development with low GHG energy-related emissions, requiring the adoption of mitigation policies and measures targeted at the energy system. Unlike the mitigation actions in the land-use change sector, where most of the funding will come from the national budgets due to sovereignty concerns, the huge financial resources needed to develop low-carbon transport and energy infrastructure could benefit from soft loans channelled to the country through nationally appropriate mitigation actions (NAMAs).     

Paleo-stratigraphic permeability anisotropy controls supergene mimetic martite goethite deposits

The Hamersley Basin in Western Australia is one of the world's largest iron ore-producing regions, hosting two types of ore in banded iron formations: the high-grade martite-microplaty haematite and the supergene martite-goethite ores. With the high-grade ores almost entirely mined in the last decade, the supergene ores have more recently become the dominant resource of interest. Consequently, understanding the genesis of these martite-goethite deposits is a critical step for exploration. Yet, although various models exist, there is still no consensus on how these mineral resources formed, complicating the prediction of resource volume and location. Here, we show that the paleo-stratigraphic permeability anisotropy (with higher permeability along strata than across) controls the supergene mimetic enrichment transport process and, subsequently, the mineralisation distribution. We introduce a flow model that implicitly represents strata with a potential function that orients the permeability tensor accurately. The numerical solver uses automatic mesh adaptivity to deliver robust solutions. By accurately reproducing the mineralisation patterns in specific deposits, we identify and quantify the paleo-water table level and permeability anisotropy ratio as the two main controlling parameters for the mineralisation distribution. These insights provide new timing constraints for the mineralisation and the physical process of iron enrichment, suggesting much more potential mineralisation volume in the paleo-reconstructed zones than previously anticipated. These flow models allow us to draw geological conclusions with few a priori assumptions required for the genetic model in which the transport component is dominant. The predictive power of this methodology will allow targeted drilling to narrow down the prospective areas and lower exploration costs. Furthermore, the methodology's generality applies to other commodities in sedimentary basins involving supergene processes and will improve our understanding of various genetic models.     

不同温室气体排放情景下中国21世纪地面气温和降水变化的模拟分析

利用HadCM2模式的模拟结果,比较了温室气体排放综合效果相当于CO2浓度逐年递增1%和0.5%两种不同情景下,中国区域21世纪地面气温和降水量的变化趋势.结果表明,随着温室气体浓度的持续增加,中国地面气温也持续升高.到21世纪末期,地面气温在上述两种排放情景下可分别升高约5℃和3℃.两种排放情景的增温趋势对比表明:即使从1990年开始温室气体等效排放逐年递增率减少一半,增温仍然很明显;直到21世纪中期,才能显示出减少温室气体排放量对减缓增温趋势的效果.降水量的年际变化较大,但随着温室气体浓度的持续增加,降水量总的趋势也是增加的.减排温室气体对降水量变化趋势的影响与地面气温相似.此外,地面气温增量和降水量变化百分率均显示出明显的季节变化,地面气温增量在秋、冬季较大而在春、夏季较小,降水变化百分率在夏、秋季较小而在冬、春季较大.     

CaO对钙矾石固化/稳定化重金属铅污染土的影响

为研究CaO的赋存形态及含量对钙矾石固化/稳定化重金属铅污染土效果的影响,采用高铝水泥提供AlO2-,纯石膏或磷石膏提供SO42-,高铝水泥、石膏、普通硅酸盐水泥或生石灰提供CaO,制备不同组分固化剂配比的固化土,测试试样强度和孔隙溶液pH值等宏观物理力学指标,通过醋酸缓冲溶液法测试试样的铅溶出量,对比分析不同固化剂固化土的矿物成分与微观结构特征。结果表明,钙矾石固化/稳定化重金属铅污染土效果显著;钙矾石对孔隙的填充作用带来的增强效果不能代替水化硅酸钙胶结土颗粒的胶结作用,普通硅酸盐水泥对试样的强度更有利,但其后期强度增幅不大,而生石灰有利于固化土强度的持续增长;生石灰较普通硅酸盐水泥对钙矾石的形成、稳定和重金属Pb2+的固化/稳定化更有利;磷石膏和纯石膏对试样的pH值、无侧限抗压强度及钙矾石固化/稳定化重金属Pb2+的效果影响较小;固化土体微观结构特征表明,CaO含量对钙矾石生成形态及作用效果影响显著。当CaO含量较低时,早期生成的钙矾石将向单硫型硫铝酸钙转化。研究成果可丰富重金属污染场地原位处理技术,具有重要的理论意义和工程应用价值。     

Research progress and prospects of digital restructuring of global-local interactions北大核心CSCD

Global-local interaction is an important research topic in economic geography. In recent years, the rapid development of digitalization in various countries and regions has profoundly affected the global production and trade networks. However, there is a lack of systematic theoretical discussion on digitalization and global-local interaction studies. The objective of this study is to conceptually rethink the role of digitalization in reshaping global-local interactions from a dynamic and relational perspective. To do this, the study first systematically reviewed the digital turn in economic geography and discussed the rethinking of digitalization. It is found that the understanding of digitalization is gradually moving beyond the limits of isolated, static, and passive technocentric approaches and towards a more dynamic, relational, and open perspective. Second, the study combined the "digital turn" with the "relational turn" in relational economic geography, which constructs theoretical bridges between digitalization and global-local studies. Third, this study provided a basic understanding for sorting out the evolution of the research frameworks, that is, from the global value chain (GVC) to the global production network (GPN) and then to the digital ecosystem (DE). We argued that digitalization has been deeply involved in shaping the global economic landscape, restructuring global-local production relations, and reconstructing regional development. Based on this recognition, we discussed the primary performance of digitalization on the restructuring of global-local interaction from three aspects: enterprise relationship, spatial effect and interaction mechanism. Finally, grounded in the practice of China's urban and regional digital economy development, the possible theoretical innovations and prospects for future research on digitalization and global-local interaction in the Chinese context were proposed. The study pointed out that we can integrate the regional practices of China's digital development with more in-depth research from the perspectives of the platform ecosystems, spatial effects, location analysis, local development models, and so on in future research. © 2023, Editorial office of PROGRESS IN GEOGRAPHY. All rights reserved.     

IPCC emission scenarios: How did critiques affect their quality and relevance 1990–2022?

Long-term global emission scenarios enable the analysis of future climate change, impacts, and response strategies by providing insight into possible future developments and linking these different climate research elements. Such scenarios play a crucial role in the climate change literature informing the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s (IPCC) Assessment Reports (ARs) and support policymakers. This article reviews the evolution of emission scenarios, since 1990, by focusing on scenario critiques and responses as published in the literature. We focus on the issues raised in the critiques and the possible impact on scenario development. The critique (280) focuses on four areas: 1) key scenario assumptions (40%), 2) the emissions range covered by the scenarios and missing scenarios (25%), 3) methodological issues (24%), and 4) the policy relevance and handling of uncertainty (11%). Scenario critiques have become increasingly influential since 2000. Some areas of critique have decreased or become less prominent (probability, development process, convergence assumptions, and economic metrics). Other areas have become more dominant over time (e.g., policy relevance & implications of scenarios, transparency, Negative Emissions Technologies (NETs) assumptions, missing scenarios). Several changes have been made in developing scenarios and their content that respond to the critique.