几种水陆交错带植物对湖滨带底质的稳固作用

为了研究几种常见水陆交错带植物对底质稳固性的影响,选取太湖贡湖湾水陆交错带内的双穗雀稗(Paspalum distichum)、李氏禾(Leersia hexandra)、香菇草(Hydrocotyle vulgaris)、黄花水龙(Ludwigia peploides)和黄菖蒲(Iris pseudacorus)5种水生/湿生植物植物,并利用长江下游常见沙壤土和湖滨带新生底质两种土壤,开展了5种植物对底质稳固作用的室内研究.结果表明底质孔隙度减少、细小粒径(50μm)增加有利于底质稳固,改善上覆水指标,减少扰动给上覆水所带来的悬浮颗粒物.直径≤1 mm的须根量、须根长度和须根面积与底质孔隙度和粒径分布增益值之间存在线性回归关系,双穗雀稗、李氏禾、香菇草的根系参数与增益值之间存在斜率为0.006~1.727的线性正相关关系;黄花水龙、黄菖蒲植物根系参数与增益值之间则存在斜率为-0.091~-0.011的线性负相关关系.黄菖蒲与黄花水龙的根长密度分别为11.495和9.475 cm/cm~3,根表面积密度分别为0.368和0.294 cm~2/cm~3,根重密度分别为1.844和0.944 mg/cm~3,两种植物对底质孔隙度的增益值分别为15%和9%,对底质粒径分布的增益值分别为92%和47%;双穗雀稗、李氏禾、香菇草的根长密度分别为1.057、7.368和0.651 cm/cm~3,根表面积密度分别为0.033、0.228和0.022 cm~2/cm~3,根重密度分别为0.678、2.537和0.160 mg/cm~3,3种植物根系参数对底质孔隙度的增益值分别为6%、36%和1%,3种植物根系参数对底质粒径分布的增益值分别为16%、17%和-13%.5种植物通过根系提高底质的稳定性,减少底质在水力扰动下悬浮物质以及营养盐的释放,从效能上表现为李氏禾双穗雀稗黄菖蒲黄花水龙香菇草.     

Low carbon scenarios and policies for the power sector in Botswana

The Government of Botswana has pledged a nationally determined contribution (NDC) as a commitment to the Paris Agreement. For the power sector, the NDC states that the government expects renewable energy (RE) to meet 25% of peak electricity demand by 2030. However, due to high initial cost of RE technologies, the government plans to maintain a coal-based power system in the future. Therefore, the purpose of this paper is to examine Botswana’s national plan from an economic perspective, using scenario and cost analysis, to explore the possibility of the power sector’s low carbon transition in the light of Botswana’s NDC. Five scenarios are designed to reflect a range of investment cost changes of RE technologies. While most scenarios only achieve 19% (P3, P4 and P5) and 54% (P6) of the NDC’s power sector target, the P7 scenario far exceeds the goal by achieving 188% of the NDC target. Furthermore, as the difference of levelized cost of electricity among the scenarios is minimal, the P7 scenario is the most attractive pathway for the government. Even for other scenarios, the government should still deploy the suggested capacity of solar photovoltaic (PV) as it is both economically and socially beneficial in the long term. However, in these cases, the government’s political will to meet the NDC’s power sector target and to promote the solar PV industry will be critical in designing future power sector policies.

Key policy insights

• Model results show coal as the cheapest resource for electricity generation in Botswana up to 2030, but the cost competitiveness of solar photovoltaic (PV) against coal will continue to increase over time.

• It is economically and socially beneficial to adjust the current national plan and substitute some share of coal with solar PV in the future energy mix.

• Government support is critical in achieving the power sector’s NDC target, as cost reduction of solar PV alone does not guarantee success.

• Encouraging independent power producers (IPP) with financial support mechanisms would be a suitable business model for developing the renewable energy industry.

     

Advancing the use of scenarios to understand society’s capacity to achieve the 1.5 degree target

With a range of potential pathways to a sustainable future compatible with the Paris Agreement 1.5 °C target, scenario analysis has emerged as a key tool in studies of climate change mitigation and adaptation. A wide range of alternative scenarios have been created, and core amongst these are five socio-economic scenarios (Shared Socio-economic Pathways or SSPs) and four emission scenarios (Representative Concentration Pathways or RCPs). Whilst mitigation scenarios (the Shared Policy Assumptions, or SPAs) have been developed for each SSP-RCP combination, describing the actions necessary to match the climate pathway of the RCP, there has not yet been a systematic approach to address whether and how these actions can be enabled in practice.We present a novel and transferable framework to understand society’s capacity to achieve the 1.5 °C target, based on four participatory case studies using the SSP-RCP scenarios. The methodology builds on a framework for categorising different types of societal capitals and capacities and assessing their impact on the potential to implement different types of mitigation actions. All four case studies show that SSP1 has the highest potential to reach the target. Although environmental awareness is high in both SSP1 and SSP4, continued social inequalities in SSP4 restrict society’s capacity to transform, despite economic growth. In the two least environmentally-aware SSPs, SSP3 and SSP5, the transformation potential is low, but the view on capitals and capacities nonetheless helps identify opportunities for actors to develop and implement mitigation actions.The study highlights that techno-economic assessments of climate strategies need to be complemented by consideration of the critical role played by social and human capital, and by societal capacity to mobilise and create these capitals despite different socio-economic trends. These capitals and capacities are essential to enable the rapid innovation, behavioural change and international co-ordination needed to achieve the 1.5 °C target.     

The future urban heat-wave challenge in Africa: Exploratory analysis

Urbanization and climate change are among the most important global trends affecting human well-being during the twenty-first century. One region expected to undergo enormous urbanization and be significantly affected by climate change is Africa. Studies already find increases in temperature and high temperature events for the region. How many people will be exposed to heat events in the future remains unclear. This paper attempts to provide a first estimate of the number of African urban residents exposed to very warm 15-day heat events (>42 °C). Using the Shared Socio-economic Pathways and Representative Concentration Pathways framework we estimate the numbers of exposed, sensitive (those younger than 5 and older than 64 years), and those in low-income nations, with gross national products of $4000 ($2005, purchasing power parity), from 2010 to 2100. We examine heat events both with and without urban heat island estimates. Our results suggest that at the low end of the range, under pathways defined as sustainable (SSP 1) and low relative levels of climate change (RCP 2.6) without including the urban heat island effect there will be large populations (>300 million) exposed to very warm heat wave by 2100. Alternatively, by 2100, the high end exposure level is approximately 2.0 billion for SSP 4 under RCP 4.5 where the urban heat island effect is included.     

Assessing decarbonization pathways and their implications for energy security policies in Japan

For countries without sufficient fossil fuel resources such as Japan, climate policies in the mid- to long term need to satisfy requirements not only for decarbonisation but also for energy security in the context of limitations on renewable energies and nuclear power. This study assesses the feasibility of decarbonization pathways to 2050 and their effects on energy security, considering the latest energy and climate policies in Japan using the AIM/Enduse model. The analysis illustrates that deep decarbonization by 2050 is technically feasible even without nuclear power based on three elements: energy efficiency improvements, low-carbon electricity and electrification in end-use sectors. These decarbonization pathways, in the long term, could also contribute to enhanced energy security, reducing import dependency to less than a half of the total primary energy and reducing import bills for fossil fuels by around 70% compared with the current level. Notably, renewable energies could play a strategically significant role in satisfying both climate and energy security requirements. In the mid-term (to 2030), however, although GHG emissions are reduced by 14–20% from 1990 levels, import dependency is relatively stable at today's levels, particularly without the restart of nuclear power. Given the limited potential for renewable energies in the mid-term, it is suggested that the availability of nuclear power will have negative impacts on carbon intensity and energy security, and policies to enhance the security of fossil fuels, including diversification of fuel sources and supply routes, will be required for the foreseeable future.

Policy relevance

Considering the scarcity of indigenous fossil fuel resources and the uncertain availability of nuclear power in Japan, renewable energy could play a strategically significant role in replacing unabated fossil fuels, which would contribute to satisfying both climate and energy security requirements in the long term. However, the renewable energy potential is insufficient to eliminate the requirement for fossil fuels by 2030; therefore the unavailability of nuclear power would affect energy security considerably. Thus, policies in the mid-term would still require enhancement of the energy security of fossil fuels, including the diversification of fuel sources and supply routes, as well as alleviation of the impacts of price volatility.     

Projection of PM2.5 and Ozone Concentration Changes over the Jing-Jin-Ji Region in China

Based on GISS-E2-R model simulations, the changes in PM2.5 and ozone concentrations during 2016– 35 are analyzed over the Jing-Jin-Ji region under different future emissions scenarios: 2.6, 4.5, 6.0, 8.5 Representative Concentration Pathways scenarios(RCP2.6, RCP4.5, RCP6.0, and RCP8.5), compared to the baseline periods of 1851–70(pre-industrial) and 1986–2005(present day). The results show that PM2.5 increases under all emissions scenarios, with the maximum value occurring in the southeastern part of the region under most scenarios. As for ozone, its concentration is projected to increase during 2016–35 under all emissions scenarios, compared to the baseline periods. The temporal evolutions of PM2.5 and ozone show PM2.5 reaching a peak during 2020–40, while ozone will likely increase steadily in the future.     

Intercomparison of Secondary Inorganic Aerosol Concentrations in the UK with Predictions of the Unified Danish Eulerian Model

Nitrate and sulphate concentrations were measured over the period January 2002–December 2003 on daily basis at two stations in the UK: a rural site (Harwell) and an urban site (Belfast). The measurements were compared with model results obtained by using the Unified Danish Eulerian Model (UNI-DEM), which was run using both a coarse resolution grid (50 km × 50 km surface cells) and a fine resolution grid (10 km × 10 km surface cells). The results from the comparison show reasonably good agreement between concentrations measured at the two stations and calculated by the model. This is achieved despite the absence of aqueous phase sulphur oxidation chemistry in the model. The model results were also used to predict the spatial distributions of nitrate and sulphate concentrations in the UK which agree well with observations. The contribution of mainland European emission sources and that of UK sources to pollution levels in the UK was estimated. The relative proportions differ substantially across the UK with the imported contribution to UK sulphate and nitrate typically in the range 20–45% and 35–65% respectively.     

Net groundwater inflow in an enclosed lake: from synoptic variations to climatic projections

Using lake Stechlin in northeastern Germany as an example of a small groundwater‐feed lake without surface inflows and outflows, we estimated the temporal scales and the variability ranges of the net groundwater contribution to the lake water budget. High‐resolution water level measurements by a bottom‐mounted pressure logger provided the background for the estimation of the total lake water budget. This method has demonstrated reliability for estimation of lake level variations during periods ranging from subdiurnal to perennial. The typical amplitudes of the synoptic‐to‐perennial variability characterizing the groundwater climate of lake Stechlin are estimated by comparing the two subsequent years 2006 and 2007; one of these years shows an extremely high, and the other an extremely low, annual precipitation–evaporation balance. The net groundwater flow, estimated as the difference between the total water budget and the precipitation–evaporation balance at the surface, revealed synoptic effects of lake water exfiltration into the groundwater aquifer following strong precipitation events. Perennial variations between wet and dry years superimposed seasonal oscillations. The probable origin of the latter is seasonality in the groundwater level on the watershed, although the exact amplitudes are subject to further quantification on account of seasonality in the evaporation estimation error. The results emphasize the non‐stationary behaviour of groundwater flow on timescales shorter than climatic ones. The analysis yielded a net quantitative relationship between groundwater flow and water balance at the lake surface: The water level changes in the lake due to evaporation and precipitation are damped to 60% because of the lake–groundwater exchange by means of intermittent infiltration and exfiltration events. Assuming the remaining 40% of the surface water budget may potentially result in perennial water level variability, we estimated an effect of the precipitation decrease on the lake water budget as predicted by the regional climate scenarios for the next century. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Parameter-dependent vibration-attenuation controller design for electro-hydraulic actuated linear structural systems

The problem of robust active vibration control for a class of electro-hydraulic actuated structural systems with time-delay in the control input channel and parameter uncertainties appearing in all the mass,damping and stiffness matrices is investigated in this paper.First,by introducing a linear varying parameter,the nonlinear system is described as a linear parameter varying(LPV)model.Second,based on this LPV model,an LMI-based condition for the system to be asymptotically stabilized is deduced.By solving these LMIs,a parameter-dependent controller is established for the closedloop system to be stable with a prescribed level of disturbance attenuation.The condition is also extended to the uncertain case.Finally,some numerical simulations demonstrate the satisfying performance of the proposed controller.     

Seismic microzoning from synthetic ground motion earthquake scenarios parameters: The case study of the city of Catania (Italy)

The city of Catania (Italy) in the South-Eastern Sicily has been affected in past times by several destroying earthquakes with high values of estimated magnitude. The seismogenic area to the south of Volcano Etna, known as Iblean Area, is placed between the African and the Euro-Asiatic plates on the west of the Ibleo-Maltese escarpment, to the south of the Graben of the Sicilian channel and on the east of the overlapping front of Gela. Basing on the seismic history of Catania, the following earthquake scenarios have been considered: the “Val di Noto” earthquake of January 11, 1693 (with intensity X-XI on MCS scale, magnitude M_W=7.41 and epicentral distance of about 13 km); the “Etna” earthquake of February 20, 1818 (with intensity IX on MCS scale, magnitude M_W=6.23 and epicentral distance of about 10 km). The soil response analysis at the surface, in terms of time history and response spectra, has been obtained by 1-D equivalent linear models for about 1200 borings location available in the data-bank of the central area of Catania of about 50 km², using deterministic design scenario earthquakes as input at the conventional bedrock.Seismic microzoning maps of the city of Catania have been obtained in terms of different peak ground acceleration at the surface and in terms of amplification ratios for given values of frequency.