Low carbon scenarios and policies for the power sector in Botswana

The Government of Botswana has pledged a nationally determined contribution (NDC) as a commitment to the Paris Agreement. For the power sector, the NDC states that the government expects renewable energy (RE) to meet 25% of peak electricity demand by 2030. However, due to high initial cost of RE technologies, the government plans to maintain a coal-based power system in the future. Therefore, the purpose of this paper is to examine Botswana’s national plan from an economic perspective, using scenario and cost analysis, to explore the possibility of the power sector’s low carbon transition in the light of Botswana’s NDC. Five scenarios are designed to reflect a range of investment cost changes of RE technologies. While most scenarios only achieve 19% (P3, P4 and P5) and 54% (P6) of the NDC’s power sector target, the P7 scenario far exceeds the goal by achieving 188% of the NDC target. Furthermore, as the difference of levelized cost of electricity among the scenarios is minimal, the P7 scenario is the most attractive pathway for the government. Even for other scenarios, the government should still deploy the suggested capacity of solar photovoltaic (PV) as it is both economically and socially beneficial in the long term. However, in these cases, the government’s political will to meet the NDC’s power sector target and to promote the solar PV industry will be critical in designing future power sector policies.

Key policy insights

• Model results show coal as the cheapest resource for electricity generation in Botswana up to 2030, but the cost competitiveness of solar photovoltaic (PV) against coal will continue to increase over time.

• It is economically and socially beneficial to adjust the current national plan and substitute some share of coal with solar PV in the future energy mix.

• Government support is critical in achieving the power sector’s NDC target, as cost reduction of solar PV alone does not guarantee success.

• Encouraging independent power producers (IPP) with financial support mechanisms would be a suitable business model for developing the renewable energy industry.

     

The future urban heat-wave challenge in Africa: Exploratory analysis

Urbanization and climate change are among the most important global trends affecting human well-being during the twenty-first century. One region expected to undergo enormous urbanization and be significantly affected by climate change is Africa. Studies already find increases in temperature and high temperature events for the region. How many people will be exposed to heat events in the future remains unclear. This paper attempts to provide a first estimate of the number of African urban residents exposed to very warm 15-day heat events (>42 °C). Using the Shared Socio-economic Pathways and Representative Concentration Pathways framework we estimate the numbers of exposed, sensitive (those younger than 5 and older than 64 years), and those in low-income nations, with gross national products of $4000 ($2005, purchasing power parity), from 2010 to 2100. We examine heat events both with and without urban heat island estimates. Our results suggest that at the low end of the range, under pathways defined as sustainable (SSP 1) and low relative levels of climate change (RCP 2.6) without including the urban heat island effect there will be large populations (>300 million) exposed to very warm heat wave by 2100. Alternatively, by 2100, the high end exposure level is approximately 2.0 billion for SSP 4 under RCP 4.5 where the urban heat island effect is included.     

Good practice policies to bridge the emissions gap in key countries

One key aspect of the Paris Agreement is the goal to limit the global average temperature increase to well below 2 °C by the end of the century. To achieve the Paris Agreement goals, countries need to submit, and periodically update, their Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs). Recent studies show that NDCs and currently implemented national policies are not sufficient to cover the ambition level of the temperature limit agreed upon in the Paris Agreement, meaning that we need to collectively increase climate action to stabilize global warming at levels considered safe. This paper explores the generalization of previously adopted good practice policies (GPPs) to bridge the emissions gap between current policies, NDCs ambitions and a well below 2 °C world, facilitating the creation of a bridge trajectory in key major-emitting countries. These GPPs are implemented in eleven well-established national Integrated Assessment Models (IAMs) for Australia, Brazil, Canada, China, European Union (EU), India, Indonesia, Japan, Russia, South Korea, and the United States, that provide least-cost, low-carbon scenarios up to 2050. Results show that GPPs can play an important role in each region, with energy supply policies appearing as one of the biggest contributors to the reduction of carbon emissions. However, GPPs by themselves are not enough to close the emission gap, and as such more will be needed in these economies to collectively increase climate action to stabilize global warming at levels considered safe.     

Greenhouse gas emissions from global cities under SSP/RCP scenarios, 1990 to 2100

Projections of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions are critical to enable a better understanding and anticipation of future climate change under different socio-economic conditions and mitigation strategies. The climate projections and scenarios assessed by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, following the Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP)-Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) framework, have provided a rich understanding of the constraints and opportunities for policy action. However, the current emissions scenarios lack an explicit treatment of urban emissions within the global context. Given the pace and scale of urbanization, with global urban populations expected to increase from about 4.4 billion today to about 7 billion by 2050, there is an urgent need to fill this knowledge gap. Here, we estimate the share of global GHG emissions driven by urban areas from 1990 to 2100 based on the SSP-RCP framework. The urban consumption-based GHG emissions are presented in five regional aggregates and based on a combination of the urban population share, 2015 urban per capita CO₂eq carbon footprint, SSP-based national CO₂eq emissions, and recent analysis of urban per capita CO₂eq trends. We find that urban areas account for the majority of global GHG emissions in 2015 (61.8%). Moreover, the urban share of global GHG emissions progressively increases into the future, exceeding 80% in some scenarios by the end of the century. The combined urban areas in Asia and Developing Pacific, and Developed Countries account for 65.0% to 73.3% of cumulative urban consumption-based emissions between 2020 and 2100 across the scenarios. Given these dominant roles, we describe the implications for potential urban mitigation in each of the scenario narratives in order to meet the goal of climate neutrality within this century.     

Net groundwater inflow in an enclosed lake: from synoptic variations to climatic projections

Using lake Stechlin in northeastern Germany as an example of a small groundwater‐feed lake without surface inflows and outflows, we estimated the temporal scales and the variability ranges of the net groundwater contribution to the lake water budget. High‐resolution water level measurements by a bottom‐mounted pressure logger provided the background for the estimation of the total lake water budget. This method has demonstrated reliability for estimation of lake level variations during periods ranging from subdiurnal to perennial. The typical amplitudes of the synoptic‐to‐perennial variability characterizing the groundwater climate of lake Stechlin are estimated by comparing the two subsequent years 2006 and 2007; one of these years shows an extremely high, and the other an extremely low, annual precipitation–evaporation balance. The net groundwater flow, estimated as the difference between the total water budget and the precipitation–evaporation balance at the surface, revealed synoptic effects of lake water exfiltration into the groundwater aquifer following strong precipitation events. Perennial variations between wet and dry years superimposed seasonal oscillations. The probable origin of the latter is seasonality in the groundwater level on the watershed, although the exact amplitudes are subject to further quantification on account of seasonality in the evaporation estimation error. The results emphasize the non‐stationary behaviour of groundwater flow on timescales shorter than climatic ones. The analysis yielded a net quantitative relationship between groundwater flow and water balance at the lake surface: The water level changes in the lake due to evaporation and precipitation are damped to 60% because of the lake–groundwater exchange by means of intermittent infiltration and exfiltration events. Assuming the remaining 40% of the surface water budget may potentially result in perennial water level variability, we estimated an effect of the precipitation decrease on the lake water budget as predicted by the regional climate scenarios for the next century. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

海洋生态系统非线性动力学研究

海洋生态经济系统非线性动力学模型的建立及分析,对我国海洋生态经济发展乃至社会经济的发展都具有重要意义.建立了新的海洋生态经济系统动力学模型,研究了模型的稳定性和分岔现象,揭示了该系统的非线性动力学特性.     

Bedform development and its effect on bed stabilization and sediment transport based on a flume experiment with non-uniform sediment

Non-uniform sediment deposited in a confined, steep mountain channel can alter the bed surface composition. This study evaluates the contribution of geometric and resistance parameters to bed sta-bilization and the reduction in sediment transport. Flume experiments were done under various hydraulic conditions with non-uniform bed material and no sediment supply from upstream. Results indicate that flume channels respond in a sequence of coarsening and with the formation of bedform-roughness features such as rapids, cascades, and steps. A bedform development coefficient is introduced and is shown to increase (i.e. vertical sinuosity develops) in response to increasing shear stress during the organization process. The bedform development coefficient also is positively correlated with the critical Shields number and Manning's roughness coefficient, suggesting the evolution of flow resistance with increasing bedform development. The sediment transport rate decreases with increasing bed shear stress and bedform development, further illustrating the effect of bed stabilization. An empirical sedi-ment transport model for an equilibrium condition is proposed that uses the bedform development coefficient, relative particle submergence (i.e. the ratio of mean water depth and maximum sediment diameter), modified bed slope, and discharge. The model suggests bedform development can play a primary role in reducing sediment transport (increasing bed stabilization). The model is an extension of Lane's (1955) relation specifically adapted for mountain streams. These results explain the significance of bedform development in heightening flow resistance, stabilizing the bed, and reducing sediment transport in coarse, steep channels.     

城市土地利用——交通集成模型的构建与应用（英文）

China is now experiencing rapid urbanization. Powerful tools are required to assess its urban spatial policies before implemented toward a more competitive and sustainable development paradigm. This study develops a Land Use Transport Interaction(LUTI) model to evaluate the impacts of urban land-use policies on urban spatial development. The model consists of four sub-models, i.e., transport, residential location, employment location and real estate rent sub-models. It is then applied to Beijing metropolitan area to forecast the urban activity evolution trend based on the land-use policies between 2009 and 2013. The modeling results show that more and more residents and enterprises in the city choose to agglomerate on outskirts, and new centers gradually emerge to share the services originally delivered by central Beijing. The general trend verifies the objectives of the government plan to develop more sub-centers around Beijing. The proposed activity-based model provides a distinct tool for the urban spatial policy makers in China. Further research is also discussed at the end.     

几种水陆交错带植物对湖滨带底质的稳固作用

为了研究几种常见水陆交错带植物对底质稳固性的影响,选取太湖贡湖湾水陆交错带内的双穗雀稗(Paspalum distichum)、李氏禾(Leersia hexandra)、香菇草(Hydrocotyle vulgaris)、黄花水龙(Ludwigia peploides)和黄菖蒲(Iris pseudacorus)5种水生/湿生植物植物,并利用长江下游常见沙壤土和湖滨带新生底质两种土壤,开展了5种植物对底质稳固作用的室内研究.结果表明底质孔隙度减少、细小粒径(50μm)增加有利于底质稳固,改善上覆水指标,减少扰动给上覆水所带来的悬浮颗粒物.直径≤1 mm的须根量、须根长度和须根面积与底质孔隙度和粒径分布增益值之间存在线性回归关系,双穗雀稗、李氏禾、香菇草的根系参数与增益值之间存在斜率为0.006~1.727的线性正相关关系;黄花水龙、黄菖蒲植物根系参数与增益值之间则存在斜率为-0.091~-0.011的线性负相关关系.黄菖蒲与黄花水龙的根长密度分别为11.495和9.475 cm/cm~3,根表面积密度分别为0.368和0.294 cm~2/cm~3,根重密度分别为1.844和0.944 mg/cm~3,两种植物对底质孔隙度的增益值分别为15%和9%,对底质粒径分布的增益值分别为92%和47%;双穗雀稗、李氏禾、香菇草的根长密度分别为1.057、7.368和0.651 cm/cm~3,根表面积密度分别为0.033、0.228和0.022 cm~2/cm~3,根重密度分别为0.678、2.537和0.160 mg/cm~3,3种植物根系参数对底质孔隙度的增益值分别为6%、36%和1%,3种植物根系参数对底质粒径分布的增益值分别为16%、17%和-13%.5种植物通过根系提高底质的稳定性,减少底质在水力扰动下悬浮物质以及营养盐的释放,从效能上表现为李氏禾双穗雀稗黄菖蒲黄花水龙香菇草.     

黄土高原安塞县生态退耕情景及农业影响

退耕还林是目前黄土高原恢复生态环境和控制水土流失的主要政策。为搞清政策驱动下黄土高原生态退耕的基本情景,以安塞县为例,利用2000年土地利用图和地形坡度图,以地形坡度15^o、20^o和25^o为退耕界限,借助GIS空间分析技术,模拟和分析了安塞县生态退耕的规模、空间分异特点及退耕补贴需求和对农业的影响。研究结果表明：安塞县合理的退耕坡度界限应在20^o-25^o之间,北部的镰刀湾、王家湾、化子坪、坪桥、郝树坪和南部的楼坪6乡镇可考虑退耕20^o以上的坡地,其他8乡镇宜退耕25^o以上坡地。