Exploring resource efficiency for energy,land and phosphorus use: Implications for resource scarcity and the global environment

In this paper, we present four model-based scenarios exploring the potential for resource efficiency for energy, land and phosphorus use, and implications for resource depletion, climate change and biodiversity. The scenarios explored include technological improvements as well as structural changes in production systems and lifestyle changes. Many of such changes have long lead times, requiring up front and timely investments in infrastructure, innovative incentive structures and education. For simulating the scenarios we applied the IMAGE modelling framework, with a time horizon until 2050.Our findings confirm a large potential for more efficient resource use: our (no new policies) baseline scenario shows a global increase, between 2010 and 2050, by 80% of primary energy use, 4% of arable land and 40% of phosphorus fertilisers. These numbers are reduced to +25% (primary energy), −9% (arable land) and +9% (phosphorus) in the global resource efficiency scenario. Baseline developments and resource efficiency opportunities vary strikingly among regions, resources and sectors. Phosphorus use, for example, is expected to increase most on croplands in developing countries, whereas the largest potential for phosphorus use efficiency lies in the livestock sector and urban sewage treatment in industrialised countries. Consequently, while resource efficiency resonates well as a general notion in policy thinking, concrete policies need to be region-specific, resource-specific and sector-specific.Efficiency efforts on one resource tend to contribute to efficient use of other resources and to benefit the environment. There are also trade-offs, however, and the synergies analysed do not make problem-specific policies redundant: in 2050, the global resource efficiency scenario presents higher phosphorus use and higher use of fossil fuels than in 2010; greenhouse gas emission targets are met by half; and biodiversity loss slows down but is not halted. Moreover, part of the efficiency gains in land and phosphorus use is sacrificed when this scenario is combined with ambitious climate policy, due to the substantial resource requirements for the deployment of bio-energy—albeit much less than in a scenario without more efficient resource use.     

Achieving development and mitigation objectives through a decarbonization development pathway in South Africa

Achieving the international 2 °C limit climate policy requires stringent reductions in GHG emissions by mid-century, with some countries simultaneously facing development-related challenges. South Africa is a middle-income developing country with high rates of unemployment and high levels of poverty, as well as an emissions-intensive economy. South Africa takes into account an assessment of what a fair contribution to reducing global emissions might be, and is committed to a ‘peak, plateau and decline' emissions trajectory with absolute emissions specified for 2025 and 2030, while noting the need to address development imperatives. This work utilizes an economy-wide computable general equilibrium model (e-SAGE) linked to an energy-system optimization model (TIMES) to explore improving development metrics within a 14 GtCO₂e cumulative energy sector carbon constraint through to 2050 for South Africa. The electricity sector decarbonizes by retiring coal-fired power plants or replacing with concentrated solar power, solar photovoltaics and wind generation. Industry and tertiary-sector growth remains strong throughout the time period, with reduced energy intensity via fuel-switching and efficiency improvements. From 2010 to 2050, the model results in the unemployment rate decreasing from 25% to 12%, and the percentage of people living below the poverty line decreasing from 49% to 18%. Total energy GHG emissions were reduced by 39% and per capita emissions decreased by 62%.

Policy relevance

Lower poverty and inequality are goals that cannot be subordinated to lower GHG emissions. Policy documents in South Africa outline objectives such as reducing poverty and inequality with a key focus on education and employment. In its climate policy and Intended Nationally Determined Contribution (INDC), South Africa is committed to a peak, plateau and decline GHG emissions trajectory. As in many developing countries, these policy goals require major transformations in the energy system while simultaneously increasing affordable access to safe and convenient energy services for those living in energy poverty. The modelled scenario in this work focuses on employment and poverty reduction under a carbon constraint, a novel combination with results that can provide information for a holistic climate and development policy framework. This study has focused on the long term, which is important in generating clear policy signals for the necessary large-scale investments.     

pH effect on stabilization/solidification of industrial heavy metal sludge

The leaching character and toxicity of the stabilization/solidification （S/S） products of industrial heavy metal sludge were experimentally researched at different pH （1-13）. The results showed that the leaching solutions of cement S/S and lime S/S products were all alkaline; the S/S treatments could fix Pb, Cd, Cu, Zn and Ni in solid; the Cr concentration was obviously high in the leaching solution of S/S products and exceeded the regulation value of ＂Landfill Control Standard for Hazardous Wastes＂ （GB 1858 01）.     

Stabilization of desert sands using municipal solid waste incinerator ash

This paper presents experimental results on the use of incinerator ash in stabilizing desert sands for possible use in geotechnical engineering applications. The incinerator ash was added in percentages of 2, 4, 8, 10 and 12%, by dry weight of sand. Laboratory tests such as compaction, unconfined compression, shear box and hydraulic conductivity were performed to measure the engineering characteristics of the stabilized material. The results showed substantial improvements in unconfined compressive strength and shear strength parameters (c and φ). Thus, incinerator ash can be used to improve the shear strength characteristics of desert sands. The permeability of the sand–incinerator ash mixture was relatively low.     

Climate Change Projections Based on GCM-Simulated Daily Data

Three-dimensional general circulation models (GCMs) are 'state-of-the-art' tools for projecting possible changes in climate. Scenarios constructed for the Czech Republic are based on daily outputs of the ECHAM-GCM in the central European region. Essential findings, derived from validating, procedures are summarized and changes in variables between the control and perturbed experiments are examined. The resulting findings have been used in selecting the most proper methods of generating climate change projections for assessing possible hydrological and agricultural impacts of climate change in selected exposure units. The following weather variables have been studied: Daily extreme temperatures, daily mean temperature, daily sum of global solar radiation, and daily precipitation amounts. Due to some discrepancies revealed, the temperature series for changed climate conditions (2×CO ₂ ) have been created with the help of temperature differences between the control and perturbed runs, and the precipitation series have been derived from an incremental scenario based on an intercomparison of the GCMs' precipitation performance in the region. Solar radiation simulated by the ECHAM was not available and, therefore, it was generated using regression techniques relating monthly means of daily extreme temperatures and global radiation sums. The scenarios published in the paper consist of monthly means of all temperatures, their standard deviations, and monthly means of solar radiation and precipitation amounts. Daily weather series, the necessary input to impact models, are created (i) by the additive or multiplicative modification of observed weather daily series or (ii) by generating synthetic time series with the help of a weather generator whose parameters have been modified in accord with the suggested climate change scenarios.     

Evaluating the stiffness of chemically stabilized marine clay

Cement-stabilized clay is widely used in soft clay improvement for deep excavation, underground construction, and land reclamation. This paper presents a study on the evaluation of elastic modulus for cement-stabilized marine clay. First, two types of cement-stabilized soils were studied through isotropic compression tests and cylinder split tensile tests. Specimens with different mix ratios and curing periods were used. Stress–strain behavior under isotropic compression was discussed, followed by an introduction and estimation of the stress-free bulk modulus. Empirical correlations between elastic moduli and functions for estimating elastic moduli were then proposed. Further estimation of elastic modulus was conducted with another data set. The results showed that the proposed function for estimating elastic modulus is effective for cement-improved marine clay. Finally, the proposed method and empirical functions were validated with other types of cement-stabilized clay.     

不同情景下干旱区尾闾湖泊生态水位与需水研究——以黑河下游东居延海为例

水位作为湖泊重要的水文要素之一,在反映湖泊水量变化,指示湖泊湿地生态环境状况等方面都有重要的生态意义。选取黑河下游尾闾湖东居延海为研究区域,采用湖泊形态学法对湖泊最小生态水面和最低生态水位进行了研究。依据水量平衡原理,结合已有研究对不同情景下的生态需水量进行了估算。最后结合黑河输水河道耗水规律,提出不同情景（水文频率）下各水文断面需下泄水量。研究结果对于干旱区流域湖泊湿地的保护和水资源的合理利用都有重要意义,同时也为黑河流域生态输水工程的实施提供现实的科学依据。     

13.7米望远镜用3mm振荡器恒温电路的改进

本文介绍了青海站 1 3.7米射电望远镜上 3mm振荡器恒温电路的改进情况。新的恒温电路有别于原来所使用的恒温电路的工作方式。实际使用证明 ,该电路性能可靠 ,显著提高了系统稳定性。     

Lisbon earthquake scenarios: A review on uncertainties, from earthquake source to vulnerability modelling

This paper briefly reviews the main topics developed in the last 15 years dealing with advances on predicting earthquake scenarios for the Lisbon Region. These developments, which have been reverted into seismic scenario simulators, include the entire earthquake process, as different modules, from the seismic source to vulnerability modelling. Recent achievements in several modules are presented, describing the level of uncertainties associated with the source, attenuation, soil effect, typology classification and inventory of the building stock, and vulnerability assessment of each typology. One simplified model is shown, and results of other models are compared for two selected occurrence scenarios. The paper ends with a brief appointment on the selection of scenario types, a key point in the application of simulators, and highlights the issues where more research and development should be made to optimize the gains in knowledge and to reduce overall uncertainties.     

The last 5000 years of activity at Sete Cidades volcano (São Miguel Island,Azores): Implications for hazard assessment

Sete Cidades is a central volcano with a summit caldera at the western end of São Miguel Island, Azores. Its stratigraphy comprises two main geological groups: the Inferior Group, the units of which date from more than 200 000 years ago through to 36 000 years before present, consisting of thick lava flows and subaerial volcaniclastic deposits that built the base of the central volcano; and the Superior Group which comprises all the activity from the last 36 000 years, including pumice and scoria fallout and PDC deposits with minor lava flows. The volcanostratigraphy is divided into six main formations — Risco, Ajuda, Bretanha, Lombas, Santa Bárbara and Lagoas, each defined by different activity phases in the volcano's evolution.