Water balance components estimation under scenarios of land cover change in the Vea catchment,West Africa

ABSTRACT

The need for a detailed investigation of the Vea catchment water balance components cannot be overemphasized due to its accelerated land-cover dynamics and the associated impacts on the hydrological processes. This study assessed the possible consequences of land-use change scenarios (i.e. business as usual, BAU, and afforestation for the year 2025) compared to the 2016 baseline on the Vea catchment’s water balance components using the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model. The data used include daily climate and discharge, soil and land use/land cover maps. The results indicate that the mean annual water yield may increase by 9.1% under the BAU scenario but decrease by 2.7% under the afforestation scenario; actual evapotranspiration would decrease under BAU but increase under afforestation; and groundwater recharge may increase under both scenarios but would be more pronounced under the afforestation scenario. These outcomes highlight the significance of land-cover dynamics in water resource management and planning at the catchment.     

Surface properties of stabilizing coastal dunes: combining spectral and field analyses

The coastal dunes of Israel have been undergoing a process of stabilization since 1948. One of the major features of this process is a change in the surface properties of the dunes – the development of a biological soil crust (BSC), and a change in the properties of the sand grains themselves. In Ashdod, at the southern coastal plain of Israel, sand properties that include the BSC, their fines (silt and clay) content and free iron-oxide (indicating their degree of rubification) have been analysed in detail using field and lab spectroscopy methods. In addition, sand erosion and deposition were measured using erosion pins to determine their effect on the presence of the above-mentioned factors. It was found that the BSC over these dunes is comprised of green algae that differs in its reflectance spectra from cyanobacterial crust, especially in the blue band. The crust was found to be particularly developed in the stable areas (mainly the interdunes) and on the north-facing slopes rather than on the south-facing slopes. A positive correlation was found between the crust fines and chlorophyll content, with stable areas showing more developed BSC. The stable areas showed also a lower albedo and slightly more developed reddish colour, indicating a slightly higher rate of rubification. This study demonstrates that the intensity of sand erosion/deposition rates affects soil properties, with the BSC being the fastest to react to the stabilization process (months to several years), followed by the content of fine particles (several years to a decade), whereas the rubification process is a much weaker marker and may need much longer time periods to develop (decades to centuries).     

Development of Seismic Risk Scenarios Based on a Hybrid Method of Vulnerability Assessment

A hybrid methodology of vulnerability analysis is presented, involving elements from both empirical and theoretical methods. A model for correlating analytically calculated structural damage indices to loss (in monetary terms) is also proposed and calibrated against available statistical data. Probability damage matrices derived using this methodology are incorporated into a cost-benefit model tailored to the problem of estimating the feasibility of seismically rehabilitating the existing stock of reinforced concrete buildings in Thessaloniki, Greece. Losses calculated using the suggested procedure are found to be in good agreement with losses incurred during the 1978 Thessaloniki earthquake. The results of the present study also indicate that benefit/cost ratios for reinforced concrete buildings are quite low. Hence, it appears that a pre-earthquake strengthening programme is not economically justifiable.     

Streambank dewatering for increased stability

Streambank erosion is often the dominant source of sediment leaving modified watersheds. Mass failure of high, steep banks is one of the most serious forms of streambank erosion. The risk of a given bank experiencing mass failure is a function of bank height, angle, and soil strength, which is governed by soil moisture. Two methods for bank dewatering were tested in adjacent sections of streambank bordering a deeply incised channel in northern Mississippi: a low‐cost pump system and subsurface horizontal drains. Pore water pressures (both positive and negative pressures, or matric suction) were continuously monitored for 2 years at the pumped site, at an adjacent untreated control section, and for 1 year at the site stabilized with horizontal drains. Resulting data were used to calculate a time series of the factor of safety using a computer model. Over the course of two wet seasons, average bank retreats for the control and pumped plots were 0·43 and 0·21 m, respectively. More limited monitoring revealed that the site with passive drains retreated about 0·23 m. At the pumped site pore water pressure was 3–4 kPa lower than at the control site during the most critical periods. Accordingly, computed factors of safety were above the failure threshold at the pumped site, but fell below unity at the control site on 11 occasions over the period of observation. Similarly, the drained site displayed generally lower pore water pressure and higher safety factors except for two events when drains were evidently overwhelmed with the volume of local surface and subsurface flows. These results suggest, but do not prove, that bank dewatering promoted lower rates of bank retreat and higher levels of stability since the three sites had slight differences in soils, geometry and boundary conditions. Initial cost of the dewatering treatments were significantly less than orthodox bank stabilization measures, but operation and maintenance requirements may be greater. Published in 2009 by John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

A2和B2排放情景下气候变化对福建省水稻生产的阶段性影响

选择IPCC排放情景特别报告(SRES)中的A2和B2方案,利用区域气候模式PRECIS构建的气候变化情景文件与作物模型(CERES-Rice)耦合,采用雨养与灌溉两种方式,并综合考虑未来CO2浓度增加带来的直接增益效应,模拟了未来2020s及2040s两个时段气候变化对福建省水稻生育期与产量的影响。结果表明:无论是雨养方式还是灌溉方式,未来全省各稻区水稻生育期都将缩短,并且随着温度增高,2040s时段缩短的时间较2020s更长,单季稻生育期缩短时间最长,可达15~20 d。雨养条件下,除了闽东南双季稻区后季稻在2020s时段表现为2.3%(A2)和3.1%(B2)较小幅度的增产外,其他稻区各种稻作制度下的水稻产量较之BASE均出现了不同幅度的减产。闽西北稻区后季稻减产幅度最大,2020s时段A2和B2情景下减产幅度依次为6.9%和10.2%,2040s时段减产幅度进一步加大至14.1%和15.6%。闽东南稻区后季稻模拟结果较为乐观,尤其是在灌溉条件下表现为不同幅度的增产,两种情景下分别增产了1.7%、3.9%。双季稻种植区的后季稻产量稳定性均不如早稻和单季稻的,且随着温度升高,到2040s产量不稳定性有增加的趋势。灌溉在一定程度上可以缓解未来高温天气带来的产量波动。从全省的总产变化趋势来看,A2和B2两种排放情景模拟的结果都不容乐观,即使采用充分灌溉的方式,也依旧表现为减产。2020s时段,两种情景下分别减产0.74%与2.44%;2040s时段,两种情景下减产为3.50%与3.23%。未来早稻和单季稻生长季的土壤水分条件将变得不如目前湿润,与之相关的灌溉需要量均有所增加。     

Can dynamite-blasted reefs recover? A novel, low-tech approach to stimulating natural recovery in fish and coral populations

Throughout Southeast Asia, blast fishing creates persistent rubble fields with low coral cover and depauperate fish communities. We stabilized a 20-year-old rubble field in a Marine Protected Area in the Philippines, using plastic mesh and rock piles in replicated 17.5m(2) plots, thereby increasing topographic complexity, fish habitat, and recruitment substrate surface area. Multivariate analysis revealed fish community shifts within the rehabilitated area from that characteristic of rubble fields to one similar to the adjacent healthy reef within three years, as measured by changes in fish abundance and body size. Coral recruitment and percent cover increased over time, with 63.5% recruit survivorship within plots, compared with 6% on rubble. Our low-cost approach created a stable substrate favoring natural recovery processes. Both rehabilitation and the elimination of poaching were integral to success, emphasizing the synergism between the two and the need to incorporate both when considering mitigation.     

Risk mitigation and the social cost of carbon

The social cost of carbon – i.e., the marginal present-value cost imposed by greenhouse gas emissions – is determined by a complex interaction between factual assumptions, modeling methods, and value judgments. Among the most crucial factors is society's willingness to tolerate potentially catastrophic environmental risks. To explore this issue, the present analysis employs a stochastic climate–economy model that accounts for uncertainties in baseline economic growth, baseline emissions, greenhouse gas mitigation costs, carbon cycling, climate sensitivity, and climate change damages. In this model, preferences are specified to reflect the high degree of risk aversion revealed by private investment decisions, signaled by the large observed gap between the average rates of return paid by safe and risky financial instruments. In contrast, most climate–economy models assume much lower risk aversion. Given high risk aversion, the analysis finds that investment in climate stabilization yields especially large net benefits by forestalling low-probability threats to long-run human well-being. Accordingly, the social cost of carbon attains the markedly high value of $25,700 per metric ton of carbon dioxide in a baseline scenario in which emissions are unregulated. This value falls to just $4 per ton as the stringency of control measures is successively increased. These results cast doubt on the idea that the social cost of carbon takes on a uniquely defined, objective value that is independent of policy decisions. This does not, however, rule out the use of carbon prices to achieve the benefits of climate stabilization using least-cost mitigation measures.     

Improvement of groundwater resources potential by artificial recharge technique: A case study of Charf El Akab aquifer in the Tangier region,Morocco

In arid and semi-arid zones, water is the most vulnerable resource to climate change. In fact, various techniques such as artificial recharge are adopted to restore aquifers and to ensure aquifer sustainability in relation to the accelerated pace of exploitation. Morocco is a Mediterranean country highly vulnerable to climate change, many of its main aquifers are subjected to excessive drawdowns. This technique is practiced to increase potentiality of these aquifers. In the Northwestern area of Morocco, the significant development experienced by Tangier City in the industrial, tourism, and commercial sectors will lead to increased water requirements-up to 5 067 L/s (159.8 mm3) by 2030. However, the Charf El Akab aquifer system, subject to artificial recharge, is the only groundwater resource of Tangier region; hence, a rational management context is needed to ensure aquifer sustainability, and optimized exploitation under the background of differing constraints, such as increased water requirements, and climate change impacts. This work aims to respond, for the first time, to the Charf El Akab aquifer overexploitation problem, and to evaluate the future scenarios of its exploitation in the event of failure of one of the superficial resources. This work also presents a synthesized hydrodynamic modeling based on the results of the numerical simulations carried out using Feflow software for 2004 (date of cessation of injections) and 2011 (date of resumption of these facilities), making it possible to evaluate the impact of the artificial recharge on the piezometric level of the aquifer on a spatiotemporal scale. Finally, the exploitation scenarios have shown that the aquifer of Charf El Akab will not adequatly provide for the region's water requirements on the future horizon, entailing an optimal management of water resources in the region and an intentionally increased recharge rate.     

海底硬岩钻探的现状与前景分析

海底硬岩是世界大洋钻探实现“莫霍钻”目标必然钻遇的地层。世界大洋钻探实施的航次中已多次钻遇海底硬岩,不仅采获了岩心样品,也在钻进施工中发现了诸多问题。本文搜集了近年来世界大洋钻探实施的309、312、335、360和384等有关海底硬岩钻探航次的资料,在对航次情况简要介绍的基础上,重点阐述了目前海底硬岩钻探在钻头、井壁稳定以及取心工具等方面遇到的挑战以及采取的应对措施,并对今后海底硬岩钻探的发展进行了展望。     

水泥偏高岭土复合稳定粉砂土渗透特性试验研究

水泥稳定粉砂土抗渗性能受粉砂土自身渗透性能、水泥用量、水灰比等因素影响显著,如何在提升其抗渗性能的同时降低水泥用量是提升工程经济效益的关键。通过开展不同水泥偏高岭土掺比、初始用水量、水泥偏高岭土总掺量以及养护龄期条件下的室内渗透试验,研究了上述因素对水泥偏高岭土复合稳定粉砂土抗渗性能的影响规律,探讨了上述因素及无侧限抗压强度与渗透系数之间的经验关系。结果表明：水泥与偏高岭土掺比为5:1时,水泥偏高岭土复合稳定粉砂土抗渗性能最佳,且该掺比不随水泥偏高岭土总掺量的改变而变化;水泥偏高岭土复合稳定粉砂土渗透系数随初始用水量增加呈非线性递增,随水泥偏高岭土总掺量增加和养护龄期发展呈先快后慢降低;基于试验结果归纳提出了4个关于初始用水量、水泥偏高岭土总掺量、养护龄期和无侧限抗压强度的水泥偏高岭土复合稳定粉砂土渗透系数经验模型。研究成果可为水泥稳定粉砂土抗渗性能提升提供理论参考与借鉴。