三江源地区气候变化及其对径流的驱动分析(英文)

Based on the precipitation and temperature data of the 12 meteorological stations in the "Three-River Headwaters" region and the observed runoff data of Zhimenda in the headwater sub-region of the Yangtze River, Tangnaihai in the headwater sub-region of the Yellow River and Changdu in the headwater sub-region of the Lancang River during the period 1965-2004, this paper analyses the trends of precipitation, temperature, runoff depth and carries out significance tests by means of Mann-Kendall-Sneyers sequential trend test. Makkink model is applied to calculate the potential evaporation. The runoff model driven by precipitation and potential evaporation is developed and the influence on runoff by climate change is simulated under different scenarios. Results show that during the period 1965-2004 the temperature of the "Three-River Headwaters" region is increasing, the runoff of the three hydrological stations is decreasing and both of them had abrupt changes in 1994, while no significant trend changes happen to the precipitation. The runoff model suggests that the precipitation has a positive effect on the runoff depth, while the potential evaporation plays a negative role. The influence of the potential evaporation on the runoff depth of the Lancang River is found to be the significant in the three rivers; and that of the Yellow River is the least. The result of the scenarios analysis indicates that although the precipitation and the potential evaporation have positive and negative effects on runoff relatively, fluctuated characteristics of individual effect on the runoff depth in specific situations are represented.     

Biological soil crust development and its topsoil properties in the process of dune stabilization, Inner Mongolia, China

This study was undertaken at Horqin Sand Land, Inner Mongolia, Northern China. Field samples of biological soil crusts (BSCs) and underlying topsoil (0–5 cm under BSC) were taken in areas of different dune stabilization stages, and their physicochemical properties were analyzed, including particle size distribution, bulk density, organic matter, nitrogen, phosphorus, electrical conductivity (EC), pH, and CaCO₃ content. The results revealed that semi-mobile dunes, semi-fixed dunes and fixed dunes had developed a physical crust, algae crust and moss crust, respectively. The thickness, hardness, water content, fine fraction and nutrient contents of BSCs were gradually increasing along the dune stabilization gradient. Meanwhile, BSC establishment and development enhanced the bulk density, silt and clay content, and nutrients of the topsoil under it, in an increasing tend from semi-mobile dune to fixed dune. Organic matter concentrations and other nutrients in the 0–5 cm topsoil layer under BSCs were significantly higher compared to unconsolidated soil (control). Moreover, there were strong significant positive correlations between topsoil and BSCs’ organic matter, total nitrogen, available nitrogen, available phosphorus, CaCO₃, and <0.05 mm particle content, suggesting that BSCs have an influence on some of the properties of the underlying topsoil.     

Russia's 2020 GHG emissions target: Emission trends and implementation

This article provides an overview of the recent modelling results on Russia's GHG emission trends, and reviews the success of mitigation policies in order to establish whether Russia's domestic target seems feasible. Various Russian GHG emission scenarios indicate that Russia's domestic target – emissions 25% below the 1990 level by 2020 – is not far from the business-as-usual emissions trajectory. In particular, two factors could deliver the required emissions reductions: the currently declining gross domestic product (GDP) growth and ongoing domestic mitigation policies. The former is more likely to secure the target level of emissions, because GDP growth has been contracting significantly in comparison to earlier forecasts of 3–5% annual growth, and this trend is expected to continue. The latter option – success with domestic mitigation measures – seems less likely, given the various meta-barriers to policy implementation, and the marginality of mitigation policies, problems with law-making processes, bureaucratic tradition, and informality of legislative and implementation systems.

Policy relevance

This article provides an assessment of the stringency of Russia's domestically set emissions limitation target by 2020 and the chances of Russia, the fourth largest GHG emitter in the world, achieving it. We base our assessment on a number of recent key sources that analyse Russia's GHG emission paths by applying socio-economic models, which have only been available in the Russian language prior to this publication. This knowledge is applicable for use by other negotiation parties to compare Russia's efforts to mitigate climate change to their own, and thus makes a contribution to facilitating a more equal burden-sharing of climate commitments under the future climate change agreement.     

广东气候变化评估报告(节选)

IPCC第4次报告指出:近100年全球平均气温升高了0.74℃,最近50年有加速之势,而且很可能主要由人类活动引起;预计21世纪,全球仍将表现为明显的增温,极端天气气候事件及其引发的气象灾害可能更加严重。近50年,广东气温升高与全球平均水平相当,其中珠江三角洲地区是主要增温区域,其次是东南部沿海地区。预计广东在2011~2040年、2041~2070年和2071~2100年的年平均气温可能分别升高约1.0、1.9和2.8℃。在全球变暖的背景下,广东地区气候变化的特征主要表现在:降水变率加大,旱涝灾害频繁;登陆台风的个数减少,初台登陆时间异常;高温日数增加,高温酷热、热浪愈发频繁;低温日数减少,暖冬突出;极端最低气温变化不稳定性增加,寒冷灾害加重;灰霾天气增多,日照时数减少;极端天气气候事件及其引发的气象灾害造成的经济损失显著增大。广东近50年的增暖在很大程度上可能归因于温室气体浓度增加造成的温室效应,这种温室效应已经对增暖做出了实质性的贡献;城市化导致的热岛效应加剧了局部地区的气温上升。气候变暖既有负面影响也有正面影响,但负面影响可能超过正面影响。气候变暖将导致海平面上升,继而可能对广东沿海低洼地区带来严重的负面影响。在过去近100年全球海平面上升约10~20 cm,广东海平面上升速率为1.7 mm/年,海平面上升会使海岸侵蚀加重,咸潮海水入侵加剧;温度上升可能使广东近海珊瑚礁生态系统退化,且变得更加脆弱;珠江口的咸潮上溯的现象可能更加频繁;广东沿海的赤潮可能更加频发。气候变暖将导致农业生产的不稳定性增加,产量波动大,农业成本和投资将增加。此外,气候变化对我省国民经济的一些方面(如水资源、人类健康、人类居住环境、保险和其它金融业)的影响可能以负面为主。为适应和减缓气候变化的影响,建议:通过节能降耗,减缓温室气体排放;采取措施,适应已经发生了变化的气候;提高对气候系统的监测能力;加强气候变化领域的科学研究、适应对策研究及技术开发;在经济社会发展规划中统筹考虑应对气候变化问题;提高公众的气候保护意识;加大资金投入;积极开展合作与交流。     

碳中和愿景下的污水处理厂温室气体排放情景模拟研究

污水处理厂运行过程中大量释放甲烷(CH4)和氧化亚氮(N2O),是重要的人为温室气体排放源.基于2005—2015年统计资料和IPCC核算方法,估算了2005—2015年中国生活污水处理厂CH4和N2O排放,分析了其排放特征和影响因素;依据碳中和愿景设定3种减排情景(低减排、中减排和高减排),并预估了2020—2050...     

不同情景达到碳中和下中国区域气候变化的预估

利用第6次耦合模式比较计划(CMIP6)中的9个全球气候模式的模拟结果,通过CO₂浓度达峰时间确定SSP1-1.9和SSP1-2.6两种情景下的全球碳中和时间,预估了全球碳中和下中国区域气候较历史参考期(1995—2014年)的未来变化,分析不同时间达到碳中和下气候响应差异,并与未实现碳中和的SSP2-4.5情景下的气候变化对比。结果表明,SSP1-1.9和SSP1-2.6情景下全球达到碳中和的时间分别为2041年和2063年,相较于历史参考期,SSP1-1.9/SSP1-2.6下中国区域平均年气温上升1.22/1.58℃,平均年降水量增加7.1%/9.9%。SSP1-2.6(晚碳中和)较SSP1-1.9(早碳中和)情景下年均温增高约0.36℃,最大升温区位于西南及高原地区。对降水而言,晚碳中和较早碳中和全国平均年降水量增加约2.7%。全年及夏季降水量显著增加区主要在西北,新疆地区出现降水增加超过8%的大值区,冬季则集中于黄河中下游,增幅也超过8%。未碳中和的SSP2-4.5情景下中国区域的升温显著强于SSP1-2.6(碳中和)情景,年平均气温高约0.61℃,西北...     

滇池固化淤泥重塑土的重塑时机及强度恢复特性试验

采用无侧限抗压强度试验和直剪试验,从单轴抗压强度、黏聚力、内摩擦角的角度探求了淤泥固化土重塑时导致的强度折减和重塑后土的强度恢复特性,并分析了重塑前养护龄期（T_前）、重塑后养护龄期（T_后）、水泥掺灰比（a_c）的影响。试验结果表明,重塑时机的选择对淤泥固化土的强度折减程度有显著的影响：T_前越长,破碎过程带来的强度折减越严重,且大致满足a_c越大、强度折减越严重的规律。从强度恢复特性来看：小水泥掺灰比的固化淤泥土经过T_后,其强度恢复较好;大掺灰比的重塑土其强度则较难恢复至固化土的水平,T_前越长,强度恢复越不利。从而得出了大掺灰比固化土宜早重塑,小掺灰比的重塑时间可适当延长的规律。     

淋滤条件下GGBS-MgO固化铅污染黏土强度与溶出特性研究

以粒化高炉矿渣粉-氧化镁（GGBS-MgO）固化铅污染黏土为研究对象,通过半动态淋滤试验,对GGBS-MgO在酸雨作用下的强度特性及溶出特性进行研究。通过对GGBS-MgO固化铅污染黏土半动态淋滤后pH值、针刺深度、无侧限抗压强度及浸出液中[Pb]、[Ca]、[Mg]元素浓度的测试,分析淋滤液初始pH值、掺量以及含铅不含铅对GGBS-MgO固化土强度特性的影响,讨论了初始淋滤液pH值、固化剂掺量对GGBS-MgO固化铅污染土累积铅、钙、镁溶出质量以及铅有效扩散系数的影响规律。结果表明,半动态淋滤试验使试样无侧限抗压强度qu较标准养护39 d试样降低了2%～53%,且淋滤液初始pH=2对试样qu影响最大;在相同掺量、相同淋滤液初始pH值时,GGBS-MgO固化未污染土半动态淋滤后qu较水泥固化未污染土qu提高了12%～43%;且当固化剂掺量为18%时,固化铅污染土强度特性较水泥有明显优势,约为水泥固化铅污染土强度的1.3～1.8倍;且相同配比时,淋滤液初始pH=2表层的pH值约为pH=3、4、5、7的1/2;随着淋滤液初始pH值、半动态淋滤后qu及内部pH值的增加,针刺深度减小;针贯入阻力与qu存在幂指数关系。此外,累积铅、钙、镁溶出质量随着初始淋滤液pH值、固化剂掺量的增加而减少,在初始淋滤液pH=2时,Ai,Pb、Ai,Ca、Ai,Mg分别约为pH=3、4、5和7的29～222倍、1.7～4.4倍和12.0～80.3倍;固化剂掺量为12%时的累积溶出质量约是18%掺量时的1.1～2.0倍;铅有效扩散系数De随着初始淋滤液pH值的增加而降低,初始淋滤液pH=2时的De比pH=3～7的De高约3～5个数量级;且低于水泥固化铅污染土De,当初始淋滤液pH=7时,GGBS-MgO固化土De相比于水泥固化土低1～2个数量级。     

垃圾焚烧飞灰水泥固化体强度稳定性研究

针对垃圾焚烧飞灰安全处置技术要求,采用水泥对其进行固化、稳定化处理,研究了不同水泥添加量、不同养护时间和渗沥液浸泡时间对固化体无侧限抗压强度及破坏特性的影响,并对垃圾渗沥液的侵蚀机制进行了分析。结果表明：当水泥添加量小于5%,养护时间小于3 d时,飞灰固化体在渗沥液浸泡下迅速解体,垃圾渗沥液的侵蚀对飞灰固化体的强度有较大的影响,浸泡后的固化体呈现出明显的应变软化特征,而未经浸泡的固化体的强度增长符合y=a[1-exp(-bt)]模式。随着水泥添加量及养护时间的增加,飞灰固化体无侧限抗压强度增加,破坏应变减小,而随着浸泡时间的增加,飞灰固化体的无侧限抗压强度先增大后减小,转折点大约在5～7 d,破坏应变近似呈线性增大。渗沥液对飞灰固化体的侵蚀主要是其成分抑制了固化体水化反应和破坏了水化产物。研究成果可为垃圾焚烧飞灰的安全处置技术提供理论依据和参数支持。     

A stabilized extended finite element framework for hydraulic fracturing simulations

We present a stabilized extended finite element formulation to simulate the hydraulic fracturing process in an elasto‐plastic medium. The fracture propagation process is governed by a cohesive fracture model, where a trilinear traction‐separation law is used to describe normal contact, cohesion and strength softening on the fracture face. Fluid flow inside the fracture channel is governed by the lubrication equation, and the flow rate is related to the fluid pressure gradient by the ‘cubic’ law. Fluid leak off happens only in the normal direction and is assumed to be governed by the Carter's leak‐off model. We propose a ‘local’ U‐P (displacement‐pressure) formulation to discretize the fluid‐solid coupled system, where volume shape functions are used to interpolate the fluid pressure field on the fracture face. The ‘local’ U‐P approach is compatible with the extended finite element framework, and a separate mesh is not required to describe the fluid flow. The coupled system of equations is solved iteratively by the standard Newton‐Raphson method. We identify instability issues associated with the fluid flow inside the fracture channel, and use the polynomial pressure projection method to reduce the pressure oscillations resulting from the instability. Numerical examples demonstrate that the proposed framework is effective in modeling 3D hydraulic fracture propagation. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.