基于传递系数法的滑坡滑带土强度参数反分析研究

基于对滑坡强度参数反分析基本原理的分析,利用工程实践应用最为广泛的传递系数法建立了滑坡反分析计算模型,进而得出反分析理论基础,从数学意义上揭示了滑坡反分析本质为求解由滑坡状态条件确定了的系数项和常数项的二元多次方程。通过滑坡反分析状态分析,根据滑坡变形特征确定了稳定性评估指标。利用至少两个反分析剖面,采用试算法和插值法求解了一系列当Fsi′=Fs时的c、φ组合,然后用图解法求解滑坡滑带土强度参数。该方法在某滑坡中得到成功的应用,其计算精度基本满足工程要求,为反分析在滑坡稳定性分析及预测中的应用进行了有益的探讨。     

黄土填方高边坡变形破坏机制分析

本文依据西北某油田倒班基地黄土填方高陡边坡工程勘察, 研究了该边坡的变形破坏机制, 通过对边坡工程地质条件及变形破坏分析, 建立FLAC3D地质模型, 采用数值模拟方法研究了边坡变形破坏机制。研究结果表明, 主要变形区或破坏区为陡坎周围至其沿坡面向下20～25m 的范围之间, 其破坏深度底界为全新世填土层Q4与原状黄土Q3接触面, 但要重点控制沿坡面向下20～25m 的范围之间的变形。数值模拟结果表明, 该边坡目前整体稳定性较好, 不会发生整体变形破坏。     

Visualisation techniques to support public interpretation of future climate change and land-use choices: a case study from N-E Scotland

Mitigating and adapting to climate change includes a requirement to evaluate the role of future land uses in delivering robust integrated responses that are sensitive to local landscape contexts. In practice, this emphasises the need for community engagement, planning and inclusive decision-making. Community engagement may be potentially facilitated by the use of spatially explicit quantitative scenarios of land-use change in combination with interactive visualisation. This requires a coherent framework to integrate spatial data modelling, analytical capabilities and visualisation tools in a format that will also engage diverse public audiences. These challenges were explored with a case study of virtual landscapes from N-E Scotland that was used to test preferences for scenarios of future land use. Visualisations employed texture-based rendering rather than full photo-realistic rendering to facilitate interactivity and this provided additional scope for audiences to explore multiple future scenarios compared to the present landscape. Interactive voting in a virtual landscape theatre suggested preferences for visual diversity, good stewardship and perceived naturalness that should be considered in developing planned responses to change. Further investigation of preferences was conducted using interactive 3D features located within the landscape. Study findings are reviewed against objectives for inclusive engagement in the Digital Earth agenda and used to make further recommendations on the use of scenarios and visualisation tools. In particular, technical advances in user engagement need to be developed in conjunction with emerging good practice that addresses ethical, behavioural and inclusion issues so that the content is presented in as transparent and unbiased format as possible.     

2006～2013年CMIP5模式中国降水预估误差分析

用第五次耦合模式比较计划（CMIP5）的10个模式模拟结果与英国东安格利亚大学（UEA）气候研究机构（CRU）的最新降水格点分析资料比较,评估了三种典型浓度路径（RCPs）排放情景下模式集合对2006～2013年中国降水预估误差,结果发现模式间年降水预估在西北和东部沿海地区差异较明显,在沿海地区模式降水估计偏少,在西部和北方大部分地区偏多;冬半年大部分地区模式降水明显偏多,部分地区甚至偏多一倍以上;夏半年东部季风区降水估计偏少,但西部仍然偏多。模式降水误差随时间变化,夏半年误差变化明显的区域主要集中在北方和东部地区,冬半年在东北南部、华东及华南等地。此外,提高排放情景对年降水量估计影响明显的地区主要集中在我国西部的部分地区,加剧了西北模式降水估计偏多程度,但对东部地区影响不大。El Ni?o与La Ni?a年的模式降水误差分布相似,仅在沿海部分地区和华北北部差异较明显,逐年误差分布特征也与此相似。各种误差的对比分析表明,模式降水误差可能多来自模式本身存在的问题,如积云对流参数化、固体降水物理过程、地形处理及分辨率等。这些误差特征说明,直接使用CMIP5模式集合情景输出资料估计未来降水的方法存在较大的不确定性,必须对其进行评估,以降低潜在用户或决策者们制定未来规划的风险。     

输电线路倾斜铁塔原位加固纠偏关键技术研究

输电线路铁塔属高耸结构,不同于一般建筑物,输电线路电塔加固纠偏有其特殊性。结合厦门电业局所辖110 kV输电线路倾斜铁塔加固纠偏工程实例,深入探讨了输电线路倾斜铁塔加固纠偏关键技术。分析了铁塔倾斜原因,应用FEM技术研究基础倾斜对塔身的应力和变形的影响机制,分析了倾斜铁塔的健康状况,在此基础上提出经济有效的加固纠偏设计方案;对加固纠偏设计计算方法、加载控制指标分析及信息化施工控制等关键技术展开了讨论,并指出需要进一步研究的问题。     

草原与荒漠交界地区流沙的固定——以沙坡头铁路防护体系旱路固沙为例

在年降水量200~ 300mm左右的草原与荒漠交界地区,无灌溉条件下的流沙固定不仅是可能的,亦是非常成功的。以包兰铁路沙坡头铁路人工植被的建立为例,年平均降水量仅186.2mm,在扎设草方格辅助措施下,栽植固沙植物,成功地从根本上解决了流沙固定问题。油蒿是特别优良的固沙植物,天然更新能力强,并能形成群落,又能稳定相当长时期。理应成为该地区流沙固定的首选。     

西藏日喀则流沙固定的几个问题

1995年首次在西藏日喀则进行固沙植物的引种试验,大多数中国内地固沙植物不适应该地的流动沙丘,沙面高温和生长季短是主要制约因素。沙木蓼和籽蒿表现最好;油蒿种子不能成熟,因此不能做后续植物;乡土植物砂生槐在播种当年出苗率低、生长缓慢,只能用做后期植物。在西藏日喀则,有效的植物固沙程序是:在保护措施(草方格沙障、砾石层)下,在流动沙丘上播种外来种沙木蓼、籽蒿和油蒿或移栽籽蒿,同时播种乡土植物砂生槐。在沙木蓼和籽蒿种群衰退、油蒿种群未衰退但不能靠天然下种自行更新时,砂生槐开始发挥固沙作用,并最终凭其适沙特性和长寿命接替先锋固沙植物有效地固定沙丘。选择乡土固沙植物应将重点放在蒿属和锦鸡儿属上。     

气候变化国家评估报告（II）：气候变化的影响与适应

已经观测到的气候变化影响是显著的、多方面的。各个领域和地区都存在有利和不利影响,但以不利影响为主,未来的气候变暖将会对中国的生态系统、农业以及水资源等部门和沿海地区产生重大的不利影响。采取适应措施可以减轻气候变化的不利影响,应将适应气候变化的行动逐步纳入国民经济和社会发展的中长期规划中。由于我国科学研究的相对不足和科学认识能力的局限,目前的气候变化影响评估方法和结果还存在很大的不确定性。应当加强区域适应气候变化的案例研究、扩大研究领域、加强极端天气、气候事件影响的研究,以降低影响评估的不确定性,并提出切实可行的适应对策。     

Impact of human activities on stream flow in the Biliu River basin,China

The obvious decline in stream flow to the Biliu River reservoir over the period 1990–2005 has raised increasing concerns. Climate change and human activities, which mainly include land use changes, hydraulic constructions and artificial water consumption, are considered to be the most likely reasons for the decline in stream flow. This study centres on a detailed analysis of the runoff response to changes in human activities. Using a distributed hydrological model, (Soil and Water Assessment Tool), we simulated runoffs under different human activity and climate scenarios to understand how each scenario impacts stream flow. The results show that artificial water consumption correlates with the precipitation (wet, normal and dry) of the year in question and is responsible for most of the decrease in runoff during each period and for each different wetness year. A Fuzzy Inference Model is also used to find the relationship between the precipitation and artificial water consumption for different years, as well as to make inferences regarding the future average impact on runoff. Land use changes in the past have increased the runoff by only a small amount, while another middle reservoir (Yunshi) has been responsible for a decrease in runoff since operation began in 2001. We generalized the characteristics of the human activities to predict future runoff using climate change scenarios. The future annual flow will increase by approximately 10% from 2011 to 2030 under normal human activities and future climate change scenarios, as indicated by climate scenarios with a particularly wet year in the next 20 years. This study could serve as a framework to analyse and predict the potential impacts of changes both in the climate and human activities on runoff, which can be used to inform the decision making on the river basin planning and management. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

基于SSP-RCP不同情景的京津冀地区土地覆被变化模拟

如何实现自然与人文双重驱动下的特大城市群地区土地覆被变化的情景模拟,不仅是当前土地覆被变化研究领域的热点问题,也是城镇化可持续发展研究的核心主题之一。本文在对现有土地覆被变化情景模型缺陷进行分析和修正的基础上,构建了自然要素与人文要素耦合驱动的土地覆被情景曲面建模（SSMLC）方法。结合IPCC 2020年发布的共享社会经济路径（SSPs）与典型浓度路径（RCPs）组合的CMIP6 SSP1-2.6、SSP2-4.5和SSP5-8.5的气候情景数据,以及人口、GDP、交通、政策等人文参数,分别实现了SSP1-2.6、SSP2-4.5和SSP5-8.5情景下的京津冀土地覆被变化的情景模拟。模拟结果表明：SSMLC对京津冀地区土地覆被变化模拟的总体精度为93.52%;京津冀地区的土地覆被在2020—2040时段内的变化强度最高（3.12%/10a）,2040年以后的变化强度将逐渐减缓;在2020—2100年间,建设用地增加速度最快,增加率为5.07%/10a。湿地的减少速度最快,减少率为3.10%/10a。2020—2100时段内的京津冀土地覆被在SSP5-8.5情景下的变化强度整体高于在SSP1-2.6和SSP2-4.5情景下的变化强度;GDP、人口、交通和政策等人文因子对京津冀地区耕地、建设用地、湿地和水体的影响强度高于对其他土地覆被类型的影响强度。研究结果证实了SSMLC模型能够有效模拟和定量刻画京津冀地区土地覆被空间分布格局在未来不同情景的时空变化趋势和强度,模拟结果可为京津冀协同一体化的国土空间优化配置与规划、以及生态环境建设提供辅助依据和数据支撑。