气候变化对中国南方稻区水稻产量影响的模拟和分析

采用了DSSAT作物模式和区域气候模式相连接,模拟分析了A2和B2气候变化情景对中国主要地区灌溉水稻产量的影响。气候变化情景采用了IPCC发布的SRES(Special Report on Emissions Scenarios)系列的最新温室气体排放情景,气候情景值采用区域气候模式PRECIS(Provide Regional Climates for Impact Studies)的模拟值。通过研究站点水稻对A2和B2增温梯度敏感性的分析表明:温度增加,水稻产量呈下降趋势,随着温度增加,产量下降幅度增大。且在同一增温水平下,在南方热带地区的昆明和海口,产量下降幅度大于其他站点。A2和B2的产量相对于基准年(1961~1990年)的变化分别为:气候变化对不同站点的年代际水稻平均产量表现了正面或负面的影响(A2情景下为2.3%~-10.2%,B2情景下为4.0%~-13.6%),在某一些站点,水稻高产年和低产年的概率明显增加,产量分布趋于两极化。     

磷酸镁水泥固化铅污染土的应力-应变特性研究

采用磷酸镁水泥（MPC）对铅污染土进行固化/稳定化处理。基于无侧限抗压强度试验,系统地研究了MPC添加量、养护龄期、水土比和污染土铅含量对固化污染土应力-应变特性的影响规律。结果表明,固化污染土的应力-应变曲线呈现出3个阶段,即压密阶段、弹性阶段和破坏阶段;随着MPC添加量和养护龄期的增加,固化污染土的抗压强度qu增大,变形模量E50增大,破坏应变εf减小;水土比和铅含量对固化土的抗压强度qu和E50均存在临界值,分别为0.45和500 mg/kg,低于临界值时,固化土的qu和E50随着铅含量和水土比的增加而增加,εf随着qu增加呈幂函数规律减小,E50随着qu的增加呈线性增加,E50随着εf的增加呈幂函数规律减小。     

高钙粉煤灰加固促淤地基机理和性状试验研究

结合高钙粉煤灰与上海浦东国际机场工期促淤软土拌和后加固土体的室内外试验,指出高钙粉煤灰足加固促淤软土地基的一种新型材料。基于在不同掺灰量、不同游离氧化钙含量和添加不同激发剂情形下拌和灰土的室内物理力学性能试验,探讨了高钙粉煤灰加固促淤软土的固化机理和工程特性,加固后土体在无侧限抗压强度、变形、渗透特性以及抗液化能力等方面均有明显改善,指出灰土强度与掺灰量、土体改性激发剂的品种和数量以及养护龄期有关,高钙灰与土体拌和后自膨胀特性下降为12％,消除了高钙灰的体积不稳定问题。现场进行粉喷桩加固软土地基试验表明,复合软土地基的极限承载力达到240kPa以上,可以替代水泥土搅拌桩,桩间土体强度和变形也得到改善。加固场地地下水质分析表明,高钙灰加固促淤软土地基不会影响地下水质和环境。     

深基坑施工周边管线变形监测分析和处理

在基坑开挖过程中,由于应力环境改变,造成附近管线位移较大。该工程进行了系统监测,根据监测数据对周边管线的变形进行较系统的分析和变形处理。     

Technical Note Reactive silica and strength of fly ashes

The use of fly ash in geotechnical engineering depends greatly on its pozzolanic reactivity. Though many factors influence the reactivity of fly ash it is well recognized that reactive silica and lime content play a major role. A new, accurate and reliable method for the determination of reactive silica content of fly ash has been established. The reactive silica content, obtained as acid soluble silica in about 2 to 3 N hydrochloric acid, is found to correlate well with unconfined compressive strength of fly ashes. The reactive silica content of fly ash is also important in the stabilization of soils using fly ash. © Rapid Science Ltd. 1998     

分布式水文模型SWAT模型在新疆叶尔羌河流域的适用性研究

为定量分析SWAT模型在新疆叶尔羌流域径流模拟的适用性,以叶尔羌河卡群水文站以上集水区域为研究流域,基于卡群水文站2000-2012年水文数据,运用SWAT模型模拟了研究流域的径流量,并设定2种气候变化情景模式,定量分析不同气候变化情景模式对叶尔羌流域径流量的影响。研究结果表明:SWAT模型在叶尔羌河流域具有较好的适用性,模拟的径流深相对误差小于8%,确定性系数均达到0.75以上;在降水不变化的前提下,气温升高2℃,流域径流量增加6.28%;在气温不变前提下,降水量增加5%,流域径流量增加9.50%。研究成果对于新疆叶尔羌河流域水文模拟及预测提供参考价值。     

Spatiotemporal variations of aridity index over the Belt and Road region under the 1.5°C and 2.0°C warming scenarios

Journal of Geographical Sciences - Aridity index reflects the exchanges of energy and water between the land surface and the atmosphere, and its variation can be used to forecast drought and flood...     

综合湿度和温度影响的中国未来热浪预估

地面空气湿度直接影响人体驱散热负荷的效率,持续高温高湿天气将会严重影响人体健康。基于综合考虑温度和湿度协同作用的热胁迫指数——湿球黑球温度(WBGT)指数定义热浪,利用参考时期(1986—2005年)中国824个气象站点逐日平均气温和逐日相对湿度资料以及CMIP5多模式相应模拟数据,论文定量描述了未来时期(2076—2095年)不同排放情景下(RCP2.6、RCP4.5和RCP8.5)中国大陆地区可能遭遇的热浪事件的空间分布特征及其变化。研究结果表明：① 最有效的减排情景(RCP2.6)和高排放情景(RCP8.5)下中国大陆地区的平均热浪日数分别是参考时期的3.4倍和6.6倍,平均热浪强度(一年内所有热浪事件中日平均WBGT指数的最大值)也相对升高了1.6 ℃和4.9 ℃,未来时期RCP8.5情景下中国东部和南部地区的最高年均热浪强度甚至将达到40 ℃;② 虽然青藏高原地区的热浪强度等级低,但是未来时期热浪日数的增加幅度较为显著;③ 华南、长江中下游以及少数西南地区是综合考虑气温和湿度协同作用对人体热舒适的影响下,未来时期可能发生热浪最严重的地区,如果不考虑湿度要素的影响,那么将极有可能低估热浪在中国华南和东部等湿度较高地区的强度和影响。     

Global rainbow distribution under current and future climates

Rainbows contribute to human wellbeing by providing an inspiring connection to nature. Because the rainbow is an atmospheric optical phenomenon that results from the refraction of sunlight by rainwater droplets, changes in precipitation and cloud cover due to anthropogenic climate forcing will alter rainbow distribution. Yet, we lack a basic understanding of the current spatial distribution of rainbows and how climate change might alter this pattern. To assess how climate change might affect rainbow viewing opportunities, we developed a global database of crowd-sourced photographed rainbows, trained an empirical model of rainbow occurrence, and applied this model to present-day climate and three future climate scenarios. Results suggest that the average terrestrial location on Earth currently has 117 ± 71 days per year with conditions suitable for rainbows. By 2100, climate change is likely to generate a 4.0–4.9 % net increase in mean global annual rainbow-days (i.e., days with at least one rainbow), with the greatest change under the highest emission scenario. Around 21–34 % of land areas will lose rainbow-days and 66–79 % will gain rainbow-days, with rainbow gain hotspots mainly in high-latitude and high-elevation regions with smaller human populations. Our research demonstrates that alterations to non-tangible environmental attributes due to climate change could be significant and are worthy of consideration and mitigation.     

Evaluation of Engineering and Cement–Stabilization Parameters of Clayey–Sand Mixtures under Soaked Conditions

Clay soils, especially clay soils of high or very high swelling potential often present difficulties in construction operations. However, the engineering properties of these clay soils can be enhanced by the addition of cement, thereby producing an improved construction material. Higher strength loss of cement stabilized clay soils after soaking in water is attributed to water absorbing capacity of the clay fraction (e.g. montmorillonite). Kaolinite and illitic soils are largely inert and resist to water penetration. These clays generally develop satisfactory strengths resulting to low strength reduction [Croft, 1967]. The swelling clays such as bentonite soaked in water, due to environmental conditions, result to volume increase causing macro and micro-fracturing in engineering structures. These fractures accelerate water penetration and consequently cause greater strength loss [Sällfors and Öberg-Högsta, 2002]. The water intrusion during soaking creates swelling and disrupts the cement bonds. The development of internal and external force systems in soil mass, due to soaking conditions, establish the initiation of slaking. Internal force system of a stabilized clayey soil consists of the resultant stresses established by the bonding potential of a cementing agent and the swelling potential of a clay fraction. In an effort to study this influence of soaking conditions and final absorbed water content on the stabilization parameters (cement, compaction, curing time), both unconfined compressive strength and slaking (durability) tests were carried out on two different cement stabilized clayey mixtures consisted of active bentonite, kaolin and sand.