西南地区持续性气候事件的未来变化预估

利用RegCM4.0区域气候模式单向嵌套BCC_CSM1.1模式输出资料进行连续积分获得的模拟预估数据,对西南地区未来2025-2055年在两种温室气体排放情景下持续性干期和持续湿期事件的特征及其相对于历史基准期的变化进行了预估分析。结果表明,最长持续干期和湿期在RCP4.5和RCP8.5两种情景下的变化趋势不一致,RCP8.5情景下的最长湿期和持续湿期事件的发生频次相较RCP4.5并没有大幅增加,而是比RCP4.5情景具有更高的年际变率特征。相对于历史基准期,两种情景下的最长持续性气候事件的日数和发生频次在西南地区的东南部区域显著性增加,而在川西高原地区显著减少。对于持续干期发生的频次FCDD和最长持续湿期而言,四川中部以及四川、云南和贵州三省邻接处在RCP4.5情景下表现为显著增加的区域在RCP8.5情景下转变为显著减少。未来几十年西南地区持续性湿期和干期的分布特征可能更加趋于不均匀。     

中国气温未来情景的降尺度模拟

由于GCM模拟的气温数据分辨率不高,很难用于区域尺度上各种生态系统的模拟。本文基于长时间序列（1964～2007年）的全国气温观测数据,结合经纬度数据、以及DEM、坡向、坡度等系列地形特征数据,利用空间统计方法,在构建年平均气温降尺度模型的基础上,运用高精度曲面建模（HASM）方法对HadCM3的A1Fi、A2a和B2...     

Softening,localization and stabilization: capture of discontinuous solutions in J2 plasticity

This paper exploits the concept of stabilization techniques to improve the behaviour of mixed linear/linear simplicial elements (triangles and tetrahedra) in incompressible or nearly incompressible situations. Elasto-J2-plastic constitutive behaviour has been considered with linear and exponential softening. Two different stabilization methods are used to attain global stability of the corresponding discrete finite element formulation. Implementation and computational aspects are also discussed, showing that a robust application of the proposed formulation is feasible. Numerical examples show that the formulation derived is free of volumetric locking and spurious oscillations of the pressure. The results obtained do not suffer from spurious mesh-size or mesh-bias dependence, comparing very favourably with those obtained with the standard, non-stabilized, approaches. Copyright © 2004 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Subsurface grout barriers for ground stabilization in dolomite areas near Carletonville, South Africa

 Artificial lowering of the groundwater level in dolomitic aquifers of the Far West Rand gold mining area has led to the formation of hundreds of sinkholes and subsidences. Where ground movements develop in or around important structures, it has become standard practice to drill boreholes for exploration and to inject mine tailings (slimes), cement and water to fill cavernous zones and arrest further ground movements. Although this method of grouting has mostly been effective, some boreholes accepted such large quantities of grout that the operation became prohibitively expensive. This paper describes an experiment to construct subsurface barriers by pouring wet (high slump) concrete via closely-spaced lines of boreholes into cavernous zones beneath a depression on a provincial road. The barriers required a small quantity of concrete and the zone between barriers was quickly filled by grout. The lack of further ground movements confirmed the success of the project. Received: 22 May 2000 · Accepted: 18 July 2000     

Waiting Time Distribution of Emissions in Complex Coronal Mass Ejections

The waiting time distribution of emissions in Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) with several emissions is examined. We define the waiting time as the time interval between the commencement of an emission and the commencement of the next emission considered as parts of a unique CME. The distribution seems to follow a power-law. Two classes of CMEs several emissions are considered: “close” and “separate” depending on angular distance between emissions.     

Empirical nonergodic shaking scenarios based on spatial correlation models: An application to central Italy

This paper provides a new methodological framework to generate empirical ground shaking scenarios, designed for engineering applications and civil protection planning. The methodology is useful both to reconstruct the ground motion pattern of past events and to generate future shaking scenarios, in regions where strong‐motion datasets from multiple events and multiple stations are available. The proposed methodology combines (1) an ad‐hoc nonergodic ground motion model (GMM) with (2) a spatial correlation model for the source region‐, site‐, and path‐systematic residual terms, and (3) a model of the remaining aleatory error to take into account for directivity effects. The associated variability is a function of the type of scenario generated (bedrock or site, past or future event) and it is minimal for source areas where several events have occurred and for sites where recordings are available. In order to develop the region‐specific fully nonergodic GMM and to compute robust estimation of the residual terms, the approach is calibrated on a highly dense dataset compiled for the area of central Italy. Example tests demonstrate the validity of the approach, which allows to simulate acceleration response spectra at unsampled sites, as well as to capture peculiar physical features of ground motion patterns in the region. The proposed approach could be usefully adopted for data‐driven simulations of ground shaking maps, as alternative or complementary tool to physic‐based and stochastic‐based approaches.     

Gully prevention and control: Techniques,failures and effectiveness

Gully erosion is a major environmental problem, posing significant threats to sustainable development. However, insights on techniques to prevent and control gullying are scattered and incomplete, especially regarding failure rates and effectiveness. This review aims to address these issues and contribute to more successful gully prevention and control strategies by synthesizing the data from earlier studies. Preventing gully formation can be done through land use change, applying soil and water conservation techniques or by targeted measures in concentrated flow zones. The latter include measures that increase topsoil resistance and vegetation barriers. Vegetation barriers made of plant residues have the advantage of being immediately effective in protecting against erosion, but have a short life expectancy as compared to barriers made of living vegetation. Once deeply incised, the development of gullies may be controlled by diverting runoff away from the channel, but this comes at the risk of relocating the problem. Additional measures such as headcut filling, channel reshaping and headcut armouring can also be applied. To control gully channels, multiple studies report on the use of check dams and/or vegetation. Reasons for failures of these techniques depend on runoff and sediment characteristics and cross-sectional stability and micro-environment of the gully. In turn, these are controlled by external forcing factors that can be grouped into (i) geomorphology and topography, (ii) climate and (iii) the bio-physical environment. The impact of gully prevention and control techniques is addressed, especially regarding their effect on headcut retreat and network development, the trapping of sediment by check dams and reduction of catchment sediment yield. Overall, vegetation establishment in gully channels and catchments plays a key role in gully prevention and control. Once stabilized, gullies may turn into rehabilitated sites of lush vegetation or cropland, making the return on investment to prevent and control gullies high. © 2020 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Evaluating the effect of snow and ice melt in an Alpine headwater catchment and further downstream in the River Rhine

Abstract

The runoff regime of glacierized headwater catchments in the Alps is essentially characterized by snow and ice melt. High Alpine drainage basins influence distant downstream catchments of the Rhine River basin. In particular, during the summer months, low-flow conditions are probable with strongly reduced snow and ice melt under climate change conditions. This study attempts to quantify present and future contributions from snow and ice melt to summer runoff at different spatial scales. For the small Silvretta catchment (103 km²) in the Swiss Alps, with a glacierization of 7%, the HBV model and the glacio-hydrological model GERM are applied for calculating future runoff based on different regional climate scenarios. We evaluate the importance of snow and ice melt in the runoff regime. Comparison of the models indicates that the HBV model strongly overestimates the future contribution of glacier melt to runoff, as glaciers are considered as static components. Furthermore, we provide estimates of the current meltwater contribution of glaciers for several catchments downstream on the River Rhine during the month of August. Snow and ice melt processes have a significant direct impact on summer runoff, not only for high mountain catchments, but also for large transboundary basins. A future shift in the hydrological regime and the disappearance of glaciers might favour low-flow conditions during summer along the Rhine.

Citation Junghans, N., Cullmann, J. & Huss, M. (2011) Evaluating the effect of snow and ice melt in an Alpine headwater catchment and further downstream in the River Rhine. Hydrol. Sci. J. 56(6), 981–993.     

N451型伽玛能谱测井探管的研制与铀钍伽玛能谱测井技术研究

为准确测定铀钍混合型矿床中矿层的铀、钍含量,研制了 N451型伽玛能谱测井探管,并将该探管配接在 HD 4002B轻型综合测井系统上组成了伽玛能谱测井系统.基于该系统,建立了伽玛能谱测井仪的校正方法、伽玛能谱测井的数据处理方法和野外测井工作方法.N451型伽玛能谱测井探管具有探测效率高、自动稳谱系统抗辐射能力强的特点,在铀矿勘查中连续测定钻孔中矿层的U、Th含量,效果良好.