Integrating agriculture and energy to assess GHG emissions reduction: a methodological approach

Agriculture is responsible for approximately 25% of anthropogenic global GHG emissions. This significant share highlights the fundamental importance of the agricultural sector in the global GHG emissions reduction challenge. This article develops and tests a methodology for the integration of agricultural and energy systems modelling. The goal of the research is to extend an energy systems modelling approach to agriculture in order to provide richer insights into the dynamics and interactions between the two (e.g. in competition for land-use). We build Agri-TIMES, an agricultural systems module using the TIMES energy systems modelling framework, to model the effect of livestock emissions and explore emissions reduction options. The research focuses on Ireland, which is an interesting test case for two reasons: first, agriculture currently accounts for about 30% of Ireland's GHG emissions, significantly higher than other industrialized countries yet comparable with global levels (here including emissions associated with other land-use change and forestation); second, Ireland is both a complete and reasonably sized agricultural system to act as a test case for this new approach. This article describes the methodology used, the data requirements, and technical assumptions made to facilitate the modelling. It also presents results to illustrate the approach and provide associated initial insights.

Policy relevance

Most of the policy focus with regard to climate mitigation targets has been on reducing energy-related CO₂ emissions, which is understandable as they represent by far the largest source of emissions. Non-energy-related GHG emissions – largely from agriculture, industrial processes, and waste – have received significantly less attention in policy discourse. Going forward, however, if significant cuts are made in energy-related CO₂ emissions, the role of non-energy-related GHG emissions will grow in importance. It is therefore crucial that climate mitigation analyses and strategies are not limited to the energy system. This article shows the value of using integrated energy and agriculture techno-economic modelling techniques to draw evidence for new comprehensive climate policy strategies able to discern between the full range of technical solutions available. It enables the production of economy-wide least-cost climate mitigation pathways.     

Stabilization Mechanism and Effect Evaluation of Stabilized Silt with Lignin Based on Laboratory Data

The potential of a lignin-based by-product to stabilize silt was evaluated. The physical and mechanical properties of silt in its natural state, as well as when treated with varying proportions of lignin, were analyzed. The parameters tested include the particle size distribution, Atterberg limits, compaction characteristics, unconfined compressed strength, pH value, and electrical resistivity. To understand the stabilization mechanism of lignin-treated silt at a microscopic level, scanning electron microscopy (SEM), X-ray diffraction (XRD) analysis, and Fourier transform infrared resonance (FTIR) spectroscopy were also carried out on lignin and representative samples after 28 days of curing. The results indicate that the engineering properties of silt are improved by the addition of lignin. Particle size distribution is changed and plastic index is reduced from 8.8 to 7.7. After improvement, the maximum dry density increases and the optimum moisture content decreases, while the change of dry density with moisture content is enhanced. The treated silt has greater strength performance than the natural silt in terms of unconfined compressed strength and all of the samples have a pH value lower than 10. Curing time and moisture content have a significant impact on unconfined compressed strength but almost no effect on pH. Micro-chemical analysis reveals that the improvement of performance exhibited by lignin-treated silt may be mainly attributed to the cation exchange and the formation of more stable soil structure by lignin cementing. The stabilization mechanism of lignin-treated silt was proposed according to the results of chemical analysis. It is shown that lignin-based stabilizers have potential to improve the engineering properties of silt.     

Projected Shifts in Kppen Climate Zones over China and Their Temporal Evolution in CMIP5 Multi-Model Simulations

Previous studies have examined the projected climate types in China by 2100. This study identified the emergence time of climate shifts at a 1?scale over China from 1990 to 2100 and investigated the temporal evolution of K o¨ppen–Geiger climate classifications computed from CMIP5 multi-model outputs. Climate shifts were detected in transition regions(7%–8% of China's land area) by 2010, including rapid replacement of mixed forest(Dwb) by deciduous forest(Dwa) over Northeast China, strong shrinkage of alpine climate type(ET) on the Tibetan Plateau, weak northward expansion of subtropical winterdry climate(Cwa) over Southeast China, and contraction of oceanic climate(Cwb) in Southwest China. Under all future RCP(Representative Concentration Pathway) scenarios, the reduction of Dwb in Northeast China and ET on the Tibetan Plateau was projected to accelerate substantially during 2010–30, and half of the total area occupied by ET in 1990 was projected to be redistributed by 2040. Under the most severe scenario(RCP8.5), sub-polar continental winter dry climate over Northeast China would disappear by 2040–50, ET on the Tibetan Plateau would disappear by 2070, and the climate types in 35.9%and 50.8% of China's land area would change by 2050 and 2100, respectively. The results presented in this paper indicate imperative impacts of anthropogenic climate change on China's ecoregions in future decades.     

增强现实电子地图应用模式研究

增强现实是真实世界与虚拟信息融合的可视化窗口,增强现实与地图的结合日益受到学者的关注与重视。如何合理地在增强现实界面上表达地图内容,提高用户的认知效率是研究的难点之一。在分析AR与地图结合的特点的基础上,拓展了AR Maps的概念,并重点研究了AR Maps应用场景过程;提出了一种从宏观到微观的地图应用模式;最后设计了基于应用模式的AR Maps地图架构,构建了Android环境下的地图平台,验证了AR Maps应用模式的功能。     

Scenarios of land cover in China

A method for surface modeling of land cover change (SMLC) is developed on the basis of establishing transition probability matrixes between land cover types and HLZ types. SMLC is used to simulate land cover scenarios of China for the years 2039, 2069 and 2099, for which HLZ scenarios are first simulated in terms of HadCM3 climatic scenarios that are downscaled in zonal model of spatial climate change in China. This paper also analyzes spatial distribution of land cover types, area change and mean center shift of each land cover type, ecotope diversity, and patch connectivity under the land cover scenarios. The results show that cultivated land would decrease and woodland would expand greatly with climatic change, which coincides with consequences expected by implementation of Grain-for-Green policy. Nival area would shrink, and desertification area would expand at a comparatively slow rate in future 100 years. Climate change would generally cause less ecotope diversity and more patch connectivity. Ecosystems in China would have a pattern of beneficial cycle after efficient ecological conservation and restoration. However, if human activities would exceed regulation capacity of ecosystems themselves, the ecosystems in China might deteriorate more seriously.     

How to construct future IDF curves,under changing climate,for sites with scarce rainfall records?

Optimal designs of stormwater systems rely very much on the rainfall Intensity–Duration–Frequency (IDF) curves. As climate has shown significant changes in rainfall characteristics in many regions, the adequacy of the existing IDF curves is called for particularly when the rainfall are much more intense. For data sparse sites/regions, developing IDF curves for the future climate is even challenging. The current practice for such regions is, for example, to ‘borrow’ or ‘interpolate’ data from regions of climatologically similar characteristics. A novel (3‐step) Downscaling‐Comparison‐Derivation (DCD) approach was presented in the earlier study to derive IDF curves for present climate using the extracted Dynamically Downscaled data an ungauged site, Darmaga Station in Java Island, Indonesia and the approach works extremely well. In this study, a well validated (3‐step) DCD approach was applied to develop present‐day IDF curves at stations with short or no rainfall record. This paper presents a new approach in which data are extracted from a high spatial resolution Regional Climate Model (RCM; 30 × 30 km over the study domain) driven by Reanalysis data. A site in Java, Indonesia, is selected to demonstrate the application of this approach. Extremes from projected rainfall (6‐hourly results; ERA40 Reanalysis) are first used to derive IDF curves for three sites (meteorological stations) where IDF curves exist; biases observed resulting from these sites are captured and serve as very useful information in the derivation of present‐day IDF curves for sites with short or no rainfall record. The final product of the present‐day climate‐derived IDF curves fall within a specific range, +38% to +45%. This range allows designers to decide on a value within the lower and upper bounds, normally subjected to engineering, economic, social and environmental concerns. Deriving future IDF curves for Stations with existing IDF curves and ungauged sites with simulation data from RCM driven by global climate model (GCM ECHAM5) (6‐hourly results; A2 emission scenario) have also been presented. The proposed approach can be extended to other emission scenarios so that a bandwidth of uncertainties can be assessed to create appropriate and effective adaptation strategies/measures to address climate change and its impacts. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

MICP技术联合多孔硅吸附材料对锌铅复合污染土固化/稳定化修复的试验研究

近年来,工业和科技的快速发展使得重金属污染土固化/稳定化的修复研究成为热点。运用微生物诱导碳酸钙沉淀(MICP)技术联合吸附材料对锌铅复合重金属污染土进行固化/稳定化的修复,通过无侧限抗压强度试验、毒性浸出试验,评价处理前后污染土的固化效果与重金属的稳定化效果,结合扫描电镜(SEM)和X射线衍射(XRD)等检测手段,揭示MICP技术处理锌铅重金属污染土的修复机制。研究结果表明,采用MICP技术对锌铅重金属污染土进行固化/稳定化之后,可以有效降低污染土中有害重金属的浸出性。当矿化时间为10d时,试样无侧限抗压强度为942.5k Pa;铅的浸出浓度为4.20mg/L,比未处理时降低了44.81%;锌的浸出浓度为4.31mg/L,比未处理时降低了46.19%,效果显著。在此基础上,添加10%的多孔硅吸附材料后,试样无侧限抗压强度可达到1 021 kPa,强度提高了8.3%;铅的浸出浓度为2.45mg/L,与未经处理时相比,降幅达到了67.81%,与单纯MICP方法处理时相比,铅浸出浓度被二次降低了41.67%;锌的浸出浓度仅为2.93 mg/L,与未经处理时相比,降幅达到了63.4%,与单纯...     

中国降水未来情景的降尺度模拟

基于长时间序列(1964～2007年)的全国降水观测数据, 结合经纬度数据以及DEM、 坡向、坡度等系列地形特征数据, 利用空间统计方法, 在构建年平均降水降尺度模型的基础 上, 运用高精度曲面建模(HASM)方法对经过降尺度分析的HadCM3的A1Fi、A2a和B2a 三种情景T1～T4时段的全国未来平均降水进行高精度曲面模拟。模拟结果显示, 在T1～T4 时段内, A1Fi、A2a和B2a三种情景的全国平均降水均呈持续增加趋势。其中, 平均降水在 A1Fi情景中增加速度最快, B2a情景中增加速度最慢;A1Fi和A2a两种情景的平均降水均呈 加速增加趋势, 而B2a情景的平均降水则呈减速增加趋势。模拟结果表明, 本文构建的降尺 度模拟方法可以有效地实现IPCC GCM 的低分辨率的降水情景数据降尺度转换成高分辨率的 降水数据。     

基于IPAT模型的安徽省不同情景碳排放趋势测度分析

基于1995-2010年能源消费数据,利用IPAT模型,分规划情景、惯性情景、低碳情景对安徽省未来碳排放量及碳排放强度进行测度,结果表明:2015年,安徽省在规划情景、惯性情景、低碳情景下的碳排放量分别为16 680.96万t、14 790.52万t、11 235.49万t,均呈增长态势,碳排放强度分别为0.6952t/万元、0.6661t/万元、0.6533t/万元,呈下降趋势,规划与惯性情景模式下的碳排放量和碳排放强度均高于低碳情景模式。3种情景碳排放曲线表明,不会出现库兹涅茨曲线(EKC)拐点。科技创新、机制创新是实现碳减排的重要途径,"十二五"期间,安徽省通过提高能源效率、优化能源结构、创新机制等举措,碳排放仍有较大削减空间。     

新疆北部地区积雪深度变化特征及未来50a的预估

分析比较参加CMIP3计划的全球气候模式,在20C3M下各模式1961-1999年平均积雪深度和观测资料比较的基础上,检验了模式对积雪深度的模拟能力.在此基础上,选用INM-CM3.0和CGCM-T47_1模式对北疆地区未来50 a的积雪变化进行了预估.由于受GCM的空间分辨率和新疆北部地区地形、盆地沙漠下垫面、水汽来源和干旱气候环境的影响,CMIP3模式的GCM在新疆北部地区的模拟能力有限.通过相关系数和均方差误差的双重检验,选取了在新疆地区模拟能力较好的INM-CM3.0和CGCM-T47_1模式的模拟结果对新疆地区未来的积雪变化进行了预测.结果表明,在A1B、B1情景下,2002-2050年,总体上新疆北部地区的积雪深度均呈减少趋势;A2情景下,INM-CM3.0、CGCM-T47-1模式在准葛尔盆地地区积雪变化的模拟结果存在差异,但未来40 a新疆地区除天山附近外,积雪深度变化呈减少趋势.