Predictability of the East Asian winter monsoon indices by the coupled models of ENSEMBLES

The seasonal predictability of various East Asian winter monsoon （EAWM） indices was investigated in this study based on the retrospective forecasts of the five state-of-the-art coupled models from ENSEMBLES for a 46-year period of 19612006.It was found that the ENSEMBLES models predict five out of the 21 EAWM indices well,with temporal correlation coefficients ranging from 0.54 to 0.61.These five indices are defined by the averaged lower-tropospheric winds over the low latitudes （south of 30°N）.Further analyses indicated that the predictability of these five indices originates from their intimate relationship with ENSO.A cross-validated prediction,which took the preceding （November） observed Nifo3.4 index as a predictor,gives a prediction skill almost identical to that shown by the model.On the other hand,the models present rather low predictability for the other indices and for surface air temperature in East Asia.In addition,the models fail to reproduce the relationship between the indices of different categories,implying that they cannot capture the tropicalextratropical interaction related to EAWM variability.Together,these results suggest that reliable prediction of the EAWM indices and East Asian air temperature remains a challenge.     

The effect of wind barriers on airflow in a wind tunnel

Porous wind barriers are widely used and proven more efficient than solid barriers. In this study, the shelter quality of wind barriers of different porosity, row space and row number was compared based on wind-tunnel measurements. The 14 cm-high (H) scaled models of wind barriers were placed perpendicularly to the wind direction in the wind tunnel, and rough elements were placed upwind of the models to obtain a reasonable self-simulation zone and Reynolds number. The results show that the airflow field changes little in the area above one-row wind barriers. In the area below the models, the airflow field is rearranged into four energy regions. The best shelter effect achieved downwind is always obtained using a 0.35-porosity wind barrier, so we suggest the optimal porosity of 0.3–0.4 for wind barriers in sand-control engineering. The shelter effect comparison of two-row 0.35-porosity wind barriers indicates that 6 H is the optimum row space. Two-row and three-row wind barriers obviously provide better shelter than one-row barriers. Therefore, we suggest 5–7 H as the optimal row spacing for multi-row wind barriers. Our results indicated good agreement with previous studies regarding porosity, row number and row space, with some exceptions about wind barrier design regarding porosity.     

利用小波方法分析新43泉气氡异常特征

2010年7月2日、2012年1月8日先后在新疆和硕县境内发生MS4.7和MS5.0两次地震,新43泉距两次地震震中均小于200 km,利用小波变换对气氡资料进行分析后发现,两次地震前3～6个月气氡资料出现异常.又对2012年轮台、和静两次5级以上震例进行验证,结果令人满意,认为小波分析方法是地震前兆数据处理的一种有效方法.     

A statistical model for karst spring discharge estimation under extensive groundwater development and extreme climate change

ABSTRACT

To acquire better understanding of spring discharge under extreme climate change and extensive groundwater pumping, this study proposed an extreme value statistical decomposition model, in which the spring discharge was decomposed into three items: a long-term trend; periodic variation; and random fluctuation. The long-term trend was fitted by an exponential function, and the periodic variation was fitted by an exponential function whose index was the sum of two sine functions. A general extreme value (GEV) model was used to obtain the return level of extreme random fluctuation. Parameters of the non-linear long-term trend and periodic variation were estimated by the Levenberg-Marquardt algorithm, and the GEV model was estimated by the maximum likelihood method. The extreme value statistical decomposition model was applied to Niangziguan Springs, China to forecast spring discharge. We showed that the modelled spring discharge fitted the observed data very well. Niangziguan Springs discharge is likely to continue declining with fluctuation, and the risk of cessation by August 2046 is 1%. The extreme value decomposition model is a robust method for analysing the nonstationary karst spring discharge under conditions of extensive groundwater development/pumping, and extreme climate changes.

Editor D. Koutsoyiannis; Associate editor J. Ward     

Increasing rainfall,decreasing winds,and historical changes in Santa Catarina dunefields,southern Brazil

Morphological and vegetation changes on the Moçambique barrier dunefield system are examined for the period 1938–2002 from aerial photography, and a variety of factors are investigated as possible driving factors. Human factors include a decrease in grazing pressure and tree felling from the early 1960s onwards after 200 years of these activities, and fires. In the 1960s tree planting also took place. During the period 1963 to 1970 there was a marked decline in drift potential (DP – potential sand transport), and then a period of very low DPs (1970–1974). This period falls within the time interval when vegetation cover significantly increased by ~70% along the Moçambique barrier (from 1956 to 1978). During the 1960s to present, the rainfall increased. Analyses of other transgressive dunefields in Santa Catarina and Rio Grande do Sul states show similar trends so it is likely that climatic factors such as increasing rainfall and decreasing DPs are responsible for driving dunefield changes and vegetation colonization of the barriers. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

水淹层解释单元自动划分方法

本文针对目前水淹层定性解释中存在的技术难题,提出了沉积单元是控制河道砂体水淹级别分布的主要因素,认为不同沉积单元之间的水淹规律彼此独立,同一沉积单元内部水淹规律高度相关,而正确划分沉积单元是水淹层定性解释的关键.将地质上的沉积单元映射到测井曲线上,提出了解释单元的基本概念,利用稳定的泥岩隔层作为不同解释单元的分界标志,给出了利用电阻率曲线自动划分解释单元的方法与步骤.2口密闭取心井处理结果表明:该套方法可以有效地划分解释单元,与人工解释结果对比,符合率达到96.3％.     

Stable isotope‐based mean catchment altitudes of springs in the Lebanon Mountains

Stable isotopes of water are known to provide information on mean altitudes of spring recharge areas, which is an important parameter for groundwater resources management especially in karstic environments. Very often, a lack of precipitation input data limits the possibility for an appropriate estimation of mean catchment altitudes. In the Jeita spring catchment, Lebanon, a characterization of precipitation input was possible with samples collected at six stations at varying altitudes (88 amount‐weighted monthly samples). A local meteoric water line for the Jeita spring catchment was characterized as δ²H = 6.04 * δ¹⁸O + 8.45 (R ² = .92) for a 2‐year observation period between October 2012 and September 2014. Integral samples from the snow layer were collected at 22 sites at altitudes ranging from 1,000 to 2,300 m above sea level at the end of February 2012 and February 2013, when snow height reached a maximum of more than 6 m at the highest peak in the catchment. Water samples were continuously collected from six springs (Jeita, Kashkoush, Labbane, Assal, Afqa, and Rouaiss). Jeita spring water samples were collected additionally in daily time steps during the snowmelt season in 2012. Mean isotope values of the sampled springs range from ?6.8‰ to ?8.2‰, and from ?33‰ to ?44‰, for δ¹⁸O and δ²H, respectively. The stable isotope data show that input variability (space and time, snow cover, and rainfall) has direct impacts on mean altitude estimates of spring catchments. A more profound interpretation of spring response to rainfall for six local springs in the Lebanon Mountains was possible in comparison to four earlier described springs collected in the Anti‐Lebanon Mountains in Syria.     

An example of application: The ecological “natural flow regime” paradigm in hydroclimatology

According to the concept of “natural flow regime,” introduced and developed in the 1990's in aquatic ecology, streamflow can be described using five basic characteristics: magnitude, frequency, duration, period of occurrence and variability. A sixth could be added to these, namely, distribution curve. Our study, which focused exclusively on the temporal variability of these six characteristics, had these objectives: (1) to compare their stationarity, (2) to determine the links among these characteristics and (3) to analyze, for the first time, their relationship to six climatic indices (Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation, Artic Oscillation, North Atlantic Oscillation, Niño3.4, Pacific decadal Oscillation and Southern Oscillation Index). To do this, we used the Vermillon River (2670 km²) as an example, analyzing the streamflow of heavy spring floods (equal to or greater than the annual flood streamflow), as measured between 1934 and 2000.     

秦岭北缘断裂带温泉水渗流特征与地震活动水平研究

前人对秦岭北缘断裂带出露温泉水的氢氧同位素、He同位素和SiO2含量进行了计算,得到了温泉水的热储温度和循环深度。在此基础上,运用温度场作用下的热水垂向运移数学模型演算了循环深度和断层带渗透性之间的关系。根据1970～2008年的区域台网资料,对断裂带进行了分段地震活动多参数组合方法分析,并结合历史中强地震(公元前781年～公元2008年)的空间分布特点,分析总结了断层带不同区段渗透特征和地震活动的关系。最后对秦岭北缘断裂带的渗透性成因进行了解释。     

新30号泉水氡映震特征分析

对新30号泉1990年1月1日至2009年5月31日水氡观测资料进行了统计分析。结果表明,新30号泉水氡观测点对温泉地区发生的5级以上中等地震映震效果较好,震前观测到一些异常信息,异常以高、低值脉冲型异常为主,破年变的异常比较可靠,而且均为短期异常。