西北太平洋热带气旋频次的延伸期动力-统计预报方法和评估

介绍了西北太平洋热带气旋(TC)频次的延伸期预报方法,比较了新构建的动力-统计和统计预报模型的预测技巧,并探讨了预报误差来源及改进方向。动力-统计预报模型是基于动力模式预测的热带季节内振荡(ISO)信号及ISO-TC生成的同期统计关系来进行预报;统计预报模型则是基于TC生成的前兆ISO信号建模预报。预报评估结果显示,动力-统计混合预报模型的预报技巧高于统计预报模型,原因在于影响TC次季节变化的前兆信号并不稳定,且随着预报超前时间迅速消散,无法提供有效且稳定的可预报源;相反地,TC生成与同期的ISO背景场显著相关,动力模式对ISO(预报因子)有较好的预报能力,因此动力-统计相结合的预报方法为TC延伸期预报提供了有效途径。虽然目前动力-统计预报模型的预报技巧可达5～6周,但仍有进一步改进和提高的空间。通过对不同类型TC预报技巧检验和误差分析,研究认为年际和年代际背景场对ISO调控TC活动的影响不可忽略,且热带外ISO信号(如罗斯贝波破碎和西风急流强度等)对TC频次和轨迹也有显著影响,这些因子为TC延伸期预报提供了潜在可预报源。     

基于数值模拟的大口径高精度射电望远镜台址风障优化设计研究

随着射电望远镜口径增大、观测频率提高, 对其指向精度的要求也越来越高. 然而, 望远镜服役于野外台站, 台址风扰对天线指向精度的影响在高频段观测时已不能忽略. 由于风扰的时变性, 现有的抗风方法无法保障大口径高指向精度望远镜在高频段的有效观测时长. 因此, 提出了一种基于风障精确布置改善台址风环境的方法. 通过数值模拟构建了风障仿真模型, 并将仿真结果与风洞实测数据比较, 两种孔隙率风障的平均误差分别为3.7%和6.1%, 保证了风障模型的可靠性. 以新疆奇台射电望远镜(QiTai radio Telescope, QTT)台址为例, 基于QTT台址斜坡地形构建了计算域模型, 开展单风障不同高度、不同孔隙率的系列风场仿真试验, 得到了风障参量与下游挡风效果的关系. 基于单风障合理高度和最优孔隙率设置南北风障, 仿真结果表明在确定高度下最优孔隙率可以组合, 孔隙率0.1-0.1组合的风障挡风效果最优, 南方向来风在天线区域可以有效降低75%以上的风速.     

河南新郑枣区土壤地球化学研究

对比研究了地球化学景观环境、第四系、成土母质和土壤等的地球化学特征与新郑枣品质和产量的关系。研究表明,覆砂的岗丘是优质新郑枣适生的地球化学环境。典型的地质背景、第四系沉积物组构、成土母质和土壤等综合生态地球化学要素影响了新郑枣的品质和产量。区内中上更新统中发育古土壤层,是枣树生产期有益元素聚集的地球化学障和潜藏的有益元素的地球化学库,在某种程度上决定了枣的品质和产量。本区土壤和土体中多种有益营养元素含量偏低,处于缺乏状态。     

2012年黑龙江省春播期两次透雨过程对比分析

利用常规气象观测资料和NCEP1°×1°再分析资料,对黑龙江省2012年春播期4月21—23日、25—26日两次透雨过程的环流形势和物理量场特征进行了对比分析。结果表明:两次降雨过程都存在低涡,21—23日降雨在低涡中心附近,降水分布比较均匀,850hPa降温3~5℃。25—26日降雨在低涡延伸出的切变线附近,降水分布不均,850hPa降温9~15℃。两次过程水汽来源于黄海、日本海的西南气流提供的充足水汽输送。第2次水汽条件、动力条件、热力条件好于第1次,但在三江平原西部两次降雨量相差不大。     

春季长江冲淡水在口门外海域逐月变化及其影响因素分析

利用2015年4、5、6月在长江口外开展综合海洋调查获取的实测数据,分析春季口门外海域长江冲淡水（Changjiang diluted water,CDW）时空分布特征及扩散过程,并结合同期的多源环境观测数据,探讨各环境动力因素对春季长江冲淡水分布的影响,深化对冲淡水在口门外海域扩展及其动态变化的认识。观测结果显示,2015年春季长江冲淡水的扩散范围逐月增大,主体最远可到达123°E以东海域,其逐月变化主要受控于口外水文气象环境。长江径流量大小决定了冲淡水出口门后的分布范围以及表层水盐度,风向则控制冲淡水的扩展态势。在风场与径流的共同作用下,春季口门外海域长江冲淡水的扩散呈现三种模式：4月份的顺岸南下型（冬季型）、5月份的东北转向型（过渡型）和6月份的东南-东北双向分支型（夏季型）。春季台湾暖流深层水已到达长江口外海域,与表层冲淡水层相互作用较弱,但随着上升流的逐月增强,其与上层低盐冲淡水之间的跃层效应愈发显著,一方面抑制长江冲淡水的向下扩展,同时上升流的涌升也减薄了冲淡水的厚度。再悬浮泥沙向上扩散的厚度显示出春季潮混合过程难以影响至表层,但在大潮情况下,水位波动变化更为剧烈,使外海高盐海水向陆上溯更远,导致5月份12250E断面的水体盐度整体相对较高。     

A numerical study on the cumulative out‐of‐plane damage to church masonry façades due to a sequence of strong ground motions

Seismic shocks occur sometimes as a sequence, close in space and time, of destructive events of comparable intensity. In these cases, a significant portion of the damage to historical buildings can be related with the cumulated damage on structures that become progressively more vulnerable. This research investigates the specific increase of damage determined by a sequence of strong ground motions, focusing the interest on the out‐of‐plane response of 2 church masonry façades. The dynamic analyses were performed by a specific rigid body and spring model RBSM, which only accounts for out‐of‐plane damage mechanisms. Two idealized models of façade, each made of 2 different masonry bonds, have been studied by applying various sequences of recorded accelerograms. The results highlighted a complex relationship between the spectral content of the seismic shocks and the characteristics of the structures that change in the course of the loading sequence due to the development of damage. The Housner spectral intensity proved to be a reliable scalar measure of the ground motion destructiveness for these façades. Moreover, when considering a design‐consistent accelerogram that causes a relevant damage pattern, ie, with a significant elongation of the effective first period of vibration, the numerical results indicated a possible spectral intensity threshold below which the occurrence of repeated seismic shocks, both before and after the reference design shock, can be considered as irrelevant. On the other hand, a catastrophic increase of damage should be expected when this threshold is overcome.     

The formation and closure of the Big Breach of Sacalin spit associated with extreme shoreline retreat and shoreface erosion

We document a case of exceptionally large natural breaching of a sandy spit (Sacalin spit, Danube Delta) using multiannual to seasonal surveys of topography and bathymetry on successive cross-barrier and shoreface profiles, LiDAR data, satellite imagery, and wind and wave data. The large breach, which quickly reached 3.4 km in May 2014, is attributed to morphological preconditioning of the narrow (50–150 m) barrier, which was susceptible to breaching even during moderate storm conditions. The event switched the barrier's decadal evolution from low cross-shore transport to high cross-shore transport over the barrier, which is an order of magnitude larger than during the non-breach period. Upper shoreface erosion, as indicated by the extensive erosion down to −4 m, indicates that this zone is a significant source for the rebuilding of the barrier. Barrier recovery and widening trigger a negative feedback which limits the back-barrier sediment transfer. As a result, back-barrier deposition decreases whilst the barrier aggradation through overwash becomes more frequent. The Big Breach (TBB) closed naturally in three years. The very high deposition rate of sediment in the breach is a testimony of the high sediment volumes supplied by the longshore transport and the high sediment released through shoreface retreat, and resulted in widening the barrier to a maximum of 1 km. Since the newly-formed barrier shoreline retreated 500 m, this reveals that barrier breaching is an important mechanism which significantly accelerates the landward migration of the barrier system and is a proof of the highly non-linear morphodynamics involved in the barrier island translation. © 2019 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

轨道交通典型隔振屏障隔振效果模型试验研究

为了研究轨道交通中几种典型隔振屏障的隔振效果,本文通过室外模型试验,以振动加速度级作为振动评价标准,对其做出分析并给出相应评价。结果表明:(1)土体振动主要是由中低频振动波引起的;(2)对比分析几种典型连续隔振屏障的隔振效果:空沟>地下连续墙>碎石填充沟>橡胶填充沟;综合考察几种非连续隔振屏障得出:混凝土桩的隔振效果优于隔振井;隔振效果优劣比较为:混凝土实心桩>混凝土空心桩>PVC空井>碎石填充井>橡胶填充井;(3)对于单排混凝土空心桩,空心率越大,隔振效果相对越差;空心桩内部形状的改变对隔振效果影响不大,外部形状的改变对隔振效果有一定程度影响,但效果不显著,且桩体外截面为方形时的隔振效果较圆形差。     

Effects of snow-depth change on spring runoff in cryosphere areas of China

Based on snow-depth and measured runoff data in the 19 river basins of the cryosphere areas of China, changes in cold season snow depth (CSSD) and spring runoff, and the relationship between CSSD and spring runoff were analysed. Decreasing trends in CSSD were detected mainly in the plains (plateaus), while increasing trends were found mainly in the mountainous regions. Different combinations of precipitation and temperature may be responsible for these results. The response of spring runoff to CSSD change varied greatly under climate warming. The runoff in April and May was commonly affected by CSSD, while the runoff in March was less affected by CSSD, but more by the increasing temperature causing more snowmelt in March. Due to relatively greater snow accumulation in spring, the runoff during spring was less affected by CSSD in the southern Tienshan Mountains.     

Wave run-up on a fixed surface-piercing square column using multi-layer barrier

Steep or breaking waves may produce critical run-ups on a surface-piercing column, as represented by an unexpectedly high uprush, which has the potential of generating damaging localised wave-in-deck loads. Hence, to improve the air gap performance of offshore column-stabilised platforms, this paper proposes the mounting of an innovative multi-layer barrier on the column surface at a certain distance below the lower deck. Experiments were performed using a truncated square column to examine the performances of different versions of the barrier, namely, solid-plate, porous-plate, and intermittent-plate types, under four different focused waves. All the barrier types were found to obstruct and deflect uprush flow under storm conditions. However, the solid-plate type tended to experience considerable wave forces, with its impermeability also rendering the higher layers ineffective. The intermittent-plate type dissipated the uprush flow and decreased the wave impact, although it exhibited relatively strong flow disengaging, which decreased the efficiency under large wave run-ups. Conversely, the porous-plate type exhibited adequate performance, with a larger plate porosity and moderately high mounting elevation tending to improve the uprush obstruction performance and further decrease the wave slamming loads. A barrier with an appropriately designed plate porosity, number of layers, and mount elevation is expected to perform efficiently under severe sea states, providing protection for the lower deck against extreme wave run-ups.