中国东南部4～5月年代际干旱的南移特征及潜热影响的数值模拟

利用1958～2000年旬平均中国560站地面观测资料和ERA－40再分析资料, 分析了东亚气候在4～5月的年代际变化特征。发现发生在1970年代末的中国东南部干旱出现于4月中旬至5月中旬, 干旱带随季节推进逐渐向南移动。这种南移特征与对流层中上层年代际变冷中心的移动是一致的, 上层变冷中心所伴随的局地风场异常, 即异常下沉运动和对流层低层北风异常, 均显著存在于4月中旬至5月中旬, 且逐渐南移。中国东南部年代际干旱带在4~5月的南移从一定程度上意味着 4月黄淮流域降水异常对5月江南地区的降水多少具有一定的指示意义。由于干旱区位于上层变冷区的南侧, 意味着该地区向上输送的潜热通量减少能够使对流层大气进一步冷却, 这在一个变网格全球模式的敏感性试验中得到了验证, 能够部分地解释大气中的冷信号为何持续存在和南移。     

GAMIL CliPAS试验对夏季西太平洋副高的预测

利用GAMIL CliPAS “两步法” 季度预测试验, 检验了后报的1980～1999年北半球夏季西太平洋副热带高压 (简称副高) 的年际变化, 检查了Seoul National University (SNU) 动力统计预测系统对SST预测准确度, 并讨论了影响中国科学院大气物理研究所大气科学和地球流体力学数值模拟国家重点实验室格点大气模式 (GAMIL) 对副高预测效果的可能原因。500 hPa位势高度可预报性指数表明西太平洋副高具有较高可预报性。集合平均基本能再现西太平洋副高的变率特征, 但最大方差的位置和强度与观测稍有区别。观测证据显示, 副高存在2～3年变率和3～5年变率, 且2～3年变率比3～5年变率强。GAMIL能够准确预测观测副高的3～5年变率, 尽管其强度要强于观测。这与试验所用的预测海温能够很好表现赤道中东太平洋 (5.5°S～5.5°N, 190.5°E～240.5°E) 海温的年际变率有关。同时, GAMIL预测的副高2～3年变率较之观测显著偏弱, 这可能与SNU预测的海洋大陆地区 (5.5°S～0.5°N, 110.5°E～130.5°E) SST的2～3年变率偏弱有关。分析表明, SNU预测海温的这种弱点, 与SNU海温统计预测模式所用的历史海温 (OISST) 本身对海洋大陆地区2～3年变率的刻画能力较弱有关。     

Theoretical Basis and Application of an Analogue- Dynamical Model in the Lorenz System

The theoretical basis and application of an analogue-dynamical model (ADM) in the Lorenz system is studied. The ADM can effectively combine statistical and dynamical methods in which the small disturbance of the current initial value superimposed on the historical analogue reference state can be regarded as a prediction objective. Primary analyses show that under the condition of appending disturbances in model parameters, the model errors of ADM are much smaller than those of the pure dynamical model (PDM). The characteristics of predictability on the ADM in the Lorenz system are analyzed in phase space by conducting case studies and global experiments. The results show that the ADM can quite effectively reduce prediction errors and prolong the valid time of the prediction in most situations in contrast to the PDM, but when model errors are considerably small, the latter will be superior to the former. To overcome such a problem, the multi-reference-state updating can be applied to introduce the information of multi-analogue and update analogue and can exhibit exciting performance in the ADM.     

Temporal and Spatial Distributions of the Spring Persistent Rains over Southeastern China

The spring persistent rains (SPR) over southeastern China (SEC) is a synoptic and climatic phenomenon that is unique in East Asia. Su cient evidence proves that it results from the mechanical and thermal effects of the giant Tibetan Plateau (TP), but its temporal span and spatial distribution are not clear at present.A climatological analysis of the NCEP/NCAR circulation and sensible heat data shows that at the 13th pentad of the solar year (1st pentad of March) there are remarkable increases in the sensible heating over the main and southeastern part of the TP, the southwesterly velocity over the southeastern flank of the TP and SEC, and rainfall over SEC, indicating the onset of the SPR.However, after the 27th pentad of the solar year (3rd pentad of May), these variables, except for the sensible heating over the main part of the TP, decrease rapidly. The ridge line of the subtropical high in the mid-low troposphere over the South China Sea (SCS) slopes northward instead of southward as before. The rain belt center over SEC shifts to the SCS and the SCS monsoon breaks out, indicating the end of the SPR. Hence, it is reasonable to define the SPR temporal span from the 13th to 27th pentad of the solar year. Data analysis and numerical sensitivity experiments show that, although the warm and cold airs converge at about 30°N in the SPR period, the distribution and intensity of the SPR rain belt are obviously in influenced by the topography of the Nanling and Wuyi Mountains (NWM). The mountains can block and lift cold and warm airs, strengthening frontogenesis and rainfall. As a result, the axis of the SPR rain belt is superposed over that of the mountain range. Accordingly, the spatial distribution of the SPR extends over most of the SEC, more speci cally, to the south of the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River (30°N), and to the east of 110°E.     

Contribution of realistic soil moisture initial conditions to boreal summer climate predictability

Seasonal climate forecasts mainly rely on the atmospheric sensitivity to its lower boundary conditions and on their own predictability. Besides sea surface temperature (SST), soil moisture (SM) may be an additional source of climate predictability particularly during boreal summer in the mid-latitudes. In this work, we investigate the role of SM initial conditions on near-surface climate predictability during ten boreal summer seasons using three complementary ensembles of AMIP-type simulations performed with the Arpège-Climat atmospheric general circulation model. First we have conducted an assessment of the SM predictability itself through a comparison of simple empirical SM models with Arpège-Climat. The statistical and dynamical models reveal similar SM prediction skill patterns but the Arpège-Climat reaches higher scores suggesting that it is at least suitable to explore the influence of SM initialization on atmospheric predictability. Then we evaluate the relationships between SM predictability and some near surface atmospheric predictability. While SM initialization obviously improves the predictability of land surface evaporation, it has no systematic influence on the precipitation and near surface temperature skills. Nevertheless, the summer hindcast skill is clearly improved during specific years and over certain regions (mainly north America and eastern Europe in the Arpège-Climat model), when and where the SM forcing is sufficiently widespread and strong. In this case, a significant impact is also found on the occurrence of heat waves and heavy rains, whose predictability at the seasonal timescale is a crucial challenge for years to come.     

腾冲地热区高温热泉水中稀土元素特征

腾冲地热区位于印度-欧亚板块碰撞带东北缘,构造和岩浆活动频繁,地热作用明显,热泉广泛分布,是现代热泉研究的天然实验室。热泉水中的稀土元素特征是指示浅层水岩反应的重要指标。由于热泉水中稀土元素含量较低且变化范围大,腾冲地区热泉水稀土元素组成的报道比较罕见。本文尝试研究了腾冲高温热泉水中稀土元素组成特征,并与美国内华达州贝奥沃韦地热田和加利福尼亚希伯地热田热泉水的稀土元素特征进行了对比。本文选取腾冲地区的高温热泉,应用ICP-MS,测试了热泉水中稀土元素。分析结果表明热泉水中稀土元素含量相对较低且变化范围较大,其变化范围为球粒陨石的10-5～10-2倍。稀土元素球粒陨石标准化配分模式整体为轻微右倾型或平坦型,显示轻重稀土分异不明显;δEu既有正异常也有负异常;各热泉点热泉水稀土配分模式之间存在差异。虽然腾冲地热区热泉水的REE含量比美国贝奥沃韦地热田和希伯地热田热泉水的高10倍,两者之间的稀土元素分布特征具有一致性。热泉水中的δEu负异常为深循环的大气降水与具有负铕异常火山岩水岩反应的结果,正铕异常可能是由快速上返的大气降水与蒸发岩中的石膏反应导致。     

砂岩型铀矿床层间氧化带前锋区稀有元素富集机制

在深入研究砂岩型铀矿床层间氧化带各地球化学分带中铀及其伴生元素的分布规律时,发现一些单价态(不变价)元素也常常富集在层间氧化带前锋区,其典型代表是钪(Sc)、钇(Y)和稀土元素(REE)等。作者在综合分析前苏联众多砂岩型铀矿床各地球化学分带中各种元素大量测试数据的基础上,论述了层间氧化带前锋区Eh值和pH值的变化规律以及它们所导致的变价元素(U、Se、Mo和V)和不变价元素(Sc、Y和REE)的分布规律和富集机制。实际上,层间氧化带前锋区既是氧化-还原电位(Eh值)又是酸碱度(pH值)的急剧变化区,两者大致同步消长。层间氧化带前锋区有两类地球化学障:单纯的还原障和还原-碱性综合障。两种地球化学障的发育与强度取决于原始未氧化岩石中硫化物、有机质和碳酸盐的含量。     

春季我国东部海洋温度锋区对大气的强迫作用及其机制研究

首先, 采用高分辨率的卫星资料研究了春季我国东部海区海洋锋区附近的海温与风场之间的关系, 资料分析表明海温与海表面风速之间存在明显的正相关关系, 特别是在海洋锋强的年份, 这种正相关关系更明显。资料分析还表明春季是黄海、 东海海洋锋最强的季节, 海温与海表面风速的对应关系在春季尤为明显。然后, 采用一个高分辨率和先进物理方案的中尺度模式探讨了海洋影响大气的机制。控制试验再现了海洋锋区附近海温与海表面风速之间的正相关关系。模拟的边界层垂直结构说明海温能够明显改变锋区两侧边界层大气的稳定度和垂直混合的强弱, 证明了垂直混合机制的存在。而另一方面, 对控制试验和平滑海温试验的水平动量方程中各收支项的比较分析发现, 由于海洋锋的存在而产生的气压梯度力对穿越锋区的空气的加速也有相当重要的贡献。综合观测和模拟结果说明春季我国东部海区海洋温度锋区的海洋—大气相互作用过程中海洋对大气的影响非常明显, 在海洋影响大气的机理方面, 海平面气压调整机制和垂直混合机制都在起作用。     

Pozzolanic fly ash as a hydraulic barrier in land fills

The liner plays an important role in controlling migration of contaminants present in the leachate in waste containment systems such as land fills and impoundments. Although questions have been raised about the performance of clay liners, they are increasingly used singly or as double liners in disposal sites. Though the clay liners possess many advantages such as low permeability and large attenuative capacity, they also possess high shrinkage potential and hence can crack under unsaturated conditions causing instability and increase in leakage rates. Further, the permeability of the clay linear can increase due to clay–pollutant interaction. This study examines the potential of pozzolanic fly ash as a hydraulic barrier in land fill. The behaviour of three different types of fly ashes, showing a range of physical properties and chemical composition from three different sources are reported in the study. Geotechnical properties, needed to evaluate the use of fly ashes as barriers, such as shrinkage, compaction, permeability, consolidation and strength characteristics are reported. The results show that fly ashes possess low shrinkage and hence do not crack. Compacted fly ashes undergo very little volume changes. They also show that pozzolanic fly ashes develop good strength properties with time. Pozzolanic fly ashes containing sufficient lime develop strength even without addition of lime. Non-pozzolanic fly ashes do not develop strength even on addition of lime. Fly ashes generally consist of silt size particles and consequently possess high permeability. However, pozzolanic fly ashes with lime exhibit low permeability on curing because of the formation of gelatinous compounds which block the pores. Thus, pozzolanic fly ashes appear to be promising for construction of liners to contain alkaline leachate.