寒区和干旱区水文研究的回顾和展望

寒区和干旱区水文研究冰川,积雪,冻土,高寒山区和山前地带已初步形成了较完整的观测实验和研究体系,８０年代以来,在冰川融水径流,出山径流形成的观测实验,寒区水文过程,冰川作用流域水文过程和大气过程相互关系。乌鲁木齐地区的水资源问题,气候对水资源的影响,高亚洲冰冻圈水文,冰川洪水和融雪径流以及干旱区水文等方面已取得了多项研究成果,近年来,寒区和干旱区水文水资源的研究在内陆河流域水资源合理开发利用与社会     

大芦家地区渐新统东二1亚段三角洲前缘砂体微相及储集性研究

通过岩芯、录井、测井资料的综合分析,发现大芦家地区渐新统东二段主要由三角洲前缘亚相组成,砂体的成因类型主要包括三角洲前缘亚相的河口坝、水下分流河道、水下天然堤和决口扇、席状砂、远砂坝。它们不仅具有各自独特的沉积特征和测井相特征,而且其空间储集物性的分布也各不相同。此外,它们还具有较强的层内非均质性,层间非均质性和平面非均质性却较弱。     

凡口铅锌矿床海底热泉喷溢成矿的物理化学环境

凡口铅锌矿是发育于碳酸盐岩建造中的海底喷溢沉积矿床 ,以“一大二富三集中”的特点和典型的地质地球化学特征吸引着中外矿床地质工作者。叠层状矿体发育于同沉积断裂的旁侧 ,矿层与灰岩呈沉积接触关系。矿石具沉积碎屑组构 ,黄铁矿、闪锌矿具外生特征。稀土元素组成和硫同位素组成反映矿床与同生作用有关。铅同位素组成具有壳源和下地壳来源铅的特征。矿区主要矿层经历海底热泉喷溢沉积—成岩的演化     

Study on Xu Xia-ke's travels of the extraordinary cold in the 17th century and the extra long heavy rain in Yunnan Province in 1638

This paper is translated and consolidated from the following papers: Study on Xu Xia-ke's Records of the Extraordinary Cold Caused by the Heavy Snow in the 17th Century (Geographical Research, v. 12, no. 3), and A Study on the Extra Long Autumn Rain in the Central Part of Yunnan in 1638 Based on Xu Xia-ke's Travels (Geographical Research, v. 14, no. 4). The translation and consolidation were done by Wong Yat Loon, Department of Urban and Environment Science, Peking University, Beijing 100871, China This revised version was published online in August 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

三维复杂域非结构化六面体网格全自动生成方法

使用自适应有限单元法在三维复杂域内求解水工及岩土工程问题,讨论了应用行波法在多介质三维复杂块体内六面体单元网格的自动生成过程。其特点是对不规则区域具有较强的适应性,并考虑了节理单元的自动生成。     

数值预报产品动力-统计释用方法与寒潮预报

从气温变化的物理过程出发,设计了一种数值预报产品的动力－统计释用方法,开发了一套四川盆地寒潮入侵时间和降温幅度的释用方案,并利用ＥＣＭＷＦ产品建立四川盆地寒潮自动预报系统,滚动预报未来１～６日内的寒潮过程。１９９５～１９９７年投入中短期业务运行,取得了显著效果。     

1997年我国天气气候特点

我国１９９７年天气气候有如下几个主要特点：冬暖、夏热、春来早,降水北少南多,登陆台风少而集中,低温危害较普遍。     

广武新灌区春小麦土壤水分变化规律研究

通过对广武新灌区春小麦土壤水分的垂直变化、季节变化和时空变化的研究,将广武新灌区０～１００ｃｍ土层划分为活跃层、贮水层、阻隔层和无效水分层,为寻找新灌区节水途径奠定了基础。     

2007年红河州一次典型两高辐合区强降水过程分析

2007年7月,红河州多受两高间辐合区影响,产生强降水,选取7月18～20日强降水过程进行分析,得出:单纯的两高辐合区并不一定能产生强降水。虽然此次过程中有深厚的西南涡从四川东南移,但强降水的触发机制并不是西南涡,而是高空冷平流,且高空冷平流具有高层强、低层弱的特点。水汽、能量条件表现出在高层随着环流背景场南移、中低层少变的特点,较强的上升运动也集中在对流层中上层。MM5对于此次过程较强降水发生的时间、区域有较好的预报能力,但降水量级偏小。     

The role of anthropogenic activities in karst spring discharge volatility

The traditional hydrological time series methods tend to focus on the mean of whichever variable is analysed but neglect its time‐varying variance (i.e. assuming the variance remains constant). The variances of hydrological time series vary with time under anthropogenic influence. There is evidence that extensive well drilling and groundwater pumping can intercept groundwater run‐off and consequently induce spring discharge volatility or variance varying with time (i.e. heteroskedasticity). To investigate the time‐varying variance or heteroskedasticity of spring discharge, this paper presents a seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average with general autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity (SARIMA‐GARCH) model, whose the SARIMA model is used to estimate the mean of hydrological time series, and the GARCH model estimates its time‐varying variance. The SARIMA‐GARCH model was then applied to the Xin'an Springs Basin, China, where extensive groundwater development has occurred since 1978 (e.g. the average annual groundwater pumping rates were less than 0.20 m³/s in the 1970s, reached 1.20 m³/s at the end of the 1980s, surpassed 2.0 m³/s in the 1990s and exceeded 3.0 m³/s by 2007). To identify whether human activities or natural stressors caused the heteroskedasticity of Xin'an Springs discharge, we segmented the spring discharge sequence into two periods: a predevelopment stage (i.e. 1956–1977) and a developed stage (i.e. 1978–2012), and set up the SARIMA‐GARCH model for the two stages, respectively. By comparing the models, we detected the role of human activities in spring discharge volatility. The results showed that human activities caused the heteroskedasticity of the Xin'an Spring discharge. The predicted Xin'an Springs discharge by the SARIMA‐GARCH model showed that the mean monthly spring discharge is predicted to continue to decline to 0.93 m³/s in 2013, 0.67 m³/s in 2014 and 0.73 m³/s in 2015. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.