台风“摩羯”与“温比亚”环流中龙卷小尺度涡旋特征及可预警性分析

利用多普勒天气雷达探测资料,结合常规气象观测资料和天气实况及灾情调查,对2018年8月14日台风“摩羯”（1814）和8月19日台风“温比亚”（1818）产生龙卷的环境物理量及龙卷风暴强度结构特征进行了分析,对诱发龙卷和未诱发龙卷的小尺度气旋性涡旋特征进行了对比。结果表明：两次台风减弱低压东北象限是龙卷发生的关键区,低层高湿,强的低层垂直风切变和大的相对风暴螺旋度是关键物理量;龙卷出现时都伴有ΔV＞20.0 m·s-1的小尺度气旋性涡旋,且基本出现在2.0 km高度以下,但并不是所有这种低层小尺度气旋性涡旋都能诱发龙卷;以ΔV＞20.0 m·s-1为阈值,龙卷识别具有较高的命中率,识别准确率为31.8%,空报率为67.4%,漏报率为6.7%;约35.7%的龙卷没有识别时间提前量,半数龙卷几乎没有预警时间提前量。     

Environmental limitations on recruitment from seed in invasive Spartina densiflora on a southern European salt marsh

The South American cordgrass, Spartina densiflora, has invaded a range of different habitats that can support different native species assemblages on salt marshes in the Gulf of Cadiz, Spain. Little is known about the mechanisms of invasion. We examined the potential for seed germination and recruitment in a field transplant experiment, representing a wide range of environments, on elevational gradients across marshes with muddy and sandy sediments. The biotic resistance of native, perennial vegetation (where present) to recruitment of the alien was also investigated. Spartina densiflora seeds were able to germinate over a greater than 2-m range of elevation in the tidal frame. Germination success on unvegetated muddy sediments was related to sediment redox potential, with poor germination at strongly negative redox potentials on the lower sites. On sandy, well-drained sediments, germination was apparently constrained by water availability at the highest elevations. Comparison of vegetated and cleared plots on the upper marsh showed that there was a negative relationship between the presence of Atriplex portulacoides and germination on the muddy sediments. Recruitment (survival of seedlings for 12 weeks) was seen only on unvegetated muddy sediments at the highest elevation. Hence the invasive success and wide elevational tolerance of S. densiflora on the marshes of the Gulf of Cadiz are not reflected in its short-term ability to become established from its prolific seed production. Colonization of sub-optimal habitats may be largely by vegetative propagules and clonal growth.     

Dissolved inorganic carbon (DIC) and its carbon isotopic composition in sediment pore waters from the Shenhu area,northern South China Sea

The Shenhu area is one of the most favorable places for the occurrence of gas hydrates in the northern continental slope of the South China Sea. Pore water samples were collected in two piston cores (SH-A and SH-B) from this area, and the concentrations of sulfate and dissolved inorganic carbon (DIC) and its carbon isotopic composition were measured. The data revealed large DIC variations and very negative δ ¹³C-DIC values. Two reaction zones, 0–3 mbsf and below 3 mbsf, are identified in the sediment system. At site SH-A, the upper zone (0–3 mbsf) shows relatively constant sulfate and DIC concentrations and δ ¹³C-DIC values, possibly due to bioturbation and fluid advection. The lower zone (below 3 mbsf) displays good linear gradients for sulfate and DIC concentrations, and δ ¹³C-DIC values. At site SH-B, both zones show linear gradients, but the decreasing gradients for δ ¹³C-DIC and SO₄ ²⁻ in the lower zone below 3 mbsf are greater than those from the upper zone, 0–3 mbsf. The calculated sulfate-methane interface (SMI) depths of the two cores are 10.0 m and 11.1 m, respectively. The depth profiles of both DIC and δ ¹³C-DIC showed similar characteristics as those in other gas hydrate locations in the world oceans, such as the Blake Ridge. Overall, our results indicate an anaerobic methane oxidation (AMO) process in the sediments with large methane flux from depth in the studied area, which might be linked to the formation of gas hydrates in this area.     

氮磷营养盐对中肋骨条藻生长及硝酸还原酶活性的影响

通过实验室培养,在不同氮磷浓度及氮磷比率的营养条件下,对中肋骨条藻（Skeletonema costatum）的生长及藻细胞硝酸还原酶的活性进行研究。实验结果表明,中肋骨条藻属于营养型藻类,氮磷营养盐的添加,极大地促进了藻细胞的增殖。在接种后的第4～5天,各培养组藻密度达到最大值并与对照组形成极显著性差异（P〈0．01）。实验进一步发现,环境中的氮、磷浓度及氮磷比率都会影响中肋骨条藻的生长及藻细胞硝酸还原酶活性（NRA）。此外,在各培养组中,中肋骨条藻硝酸还原酶活性的最大值（NRAmax）均出现在指数生长期（接藻后第1,2天）,早于最大藻密度的出现时间（第4,5天）,这表明藻对营养盐的同化速率与生长速率并不一致,后者存在一定的滞后效应。在本实验条件下,中肋骨条藻的硝酸还原酶活性存在一定的阈值。     

特定折扣率的二度价格歧视研究

研究基于垄断厂商收益最大化的特定折扣率的定价问题,给出解的具体表达式,同时解决原有文献中需求函数为非线性函数时,最优固定折扣率的解的问题。     

“源-汇”景观格局的热岛效应研究——以武汉市为例

论文基于2017年Landsat 8遥感影像,通过GIS技术选取城市地表温度、源汇景观密度、源汇景观贡献度和景观效应指数,结合地理空间分析和数理统计方法,分析了武汉市局部源汇景观格局对城市地表温度的贡献及其效应。结果表明：① 武汉市城区热岛(urban heat island, UHI)季节变化明显,夏季热岛强度大、范围广,呈“大”字型分布,工业集聚区和经济开发区产生的UHI更显著;② 武汉市城区平均地表温度(land surface temperature, LST)在距市中心约8 km处达到峰值后沿城乡梯度逐渐下降,呈现“倒钩型”特征,这一现象与景观密度变化密切相关;③ LST与源(正向)、汇(负向)景观密度存在极强相关性,不透水表面是城区热岛的主要贡献因子;④ 相同密度的水体和绿地,水体更具有削弱城市热岛效应的功能;⑤ 一般当汇-源景观面积比>0.89(汇区密度>0.47)时,局部景观格局对城市热岛有缓解作用,且局部汇区越集中缓解效果越显著。     

基于共轭梯度搜索的病态问题处理方法

在最小二乘平差准则基础上,把病态平差问题转化为无约束的二次规划问题,并利用优化理论分析病态对平差解的影响。通过共轭梯度搜索算法在可行域中寻找最优步长因子,自动寻找最速下降方向,并给出迭代初值的设置方法。分析近似计算中病态问题与局部最优解的关系,讨论局部最优解的快速迭代方法,并通过实例验证算法的有效性,计算迭代的速度。由于整个过程没有对法方程系数矩阵进行求逆计算,该算法可用于处理大规模系数矩阵高病态的平差问题。     

声速剖面EOF表示的第一模态解析

为实现对声速剖面EOF表示后第一模态时间系数和空间函数变化规律的解析,提出了一种简化的声速剖面变化模型,即"拐点"深度值和声速值的变化;声速梯度的变化和表层海水温度周期性变化所引起的海水声速变化,通过将4种因素所引起的第一模态空间函数的变化规律与实际声速剖面簇第一模态空间函数的变化规律对比,分析引起实测声速剖面变化的主要因素,最后,分别用深海和浅海实测声速剖面数据对其进行验证。     

北半球热带中太平洋与印度洋海表温度梯度对夏季西北太平洋热带气旋生成频数变化的影响

基于1951—2018年哈德里中心海温资料、美国气象环境预报中心和美国国家大气研究中心再分析资料和第四代欧洲中心汉堡模式, 针对1994年、2018年等西北太平洋热带气旋(TC)生成异常多的年份, 研究了引起TC增加的海表温度异常(SSTA)模态及其影响机制。结果表明, 北半球热带中太平洋增暖与印度洋变冷是夏季西北太平洋TC生成频数增加的主要原因, 北大西洋负三极型式SSTA促使TC生成的进一步增加。热带中太平洋增暖与印度洋冷却在菲律宾以东激发出西风异常和气旋性环流异常。北大西洋负三极型式SSTA在我国南海、菲律宾至东南沿岸激发出气旋性环流异常。前者在西北太平洋中部, 后者在南海产生有利于TC生成的局地环境。1994年和2018年夏季热带中太平洋出现暖SSTA、印度洋为冷SSTA、北大西洋呈现负三极型式SSTA, 西北太平洋TC生成频数极端增多。近30年来, 当出现热带中太平洋增暖和印度洋冷却时, 北大西洋表现出比1989年以前更强的负三极型式SSTA, 使西北太平洋TC生成频数和北半球热带印度洋-太平洋SSTA梯度的线性相关更显著。     

Building a model-based personalised recommendation approach for tourist attractions from geotagged social media data

When travelling, people are accustomed to taking and uploading photos on social media websites, which has led to the accumulation of huge numbers of geotagged photos. Combined with multisource information (e.g. weather, transportation, or textual information), these geotagged photos could help us in constructing user preference profiles at a high level of detail. Therefore, using these geotagged photos, we built a personalised recommendation system to provide attraction recommendations that match a user's preferences. Specifically, we retrieved a geotagged photo collection from the public API for Flickr (Flickr.com) and fetched a large amount of other contextual information to rebuild a user's travel history. We then created a model-based recommendation method with a two-stage architecture that consists of candidate generation (the matching process) and candidate ranking. In the matching process, we used a support vector machine model that was modified for multiclass classification to generate the candidate list. In addition, we used a gradient boosting regression tree to score each candidate and rerank the list. Finally, we evaluated our recommendation results with respect to accuracy and ranking ability. Compared with widely used memory-based methods, our proposed method performs significantly better in the cold-start situation and when mining ‘long-tail’ data.