Representing and communicating deep uncertainty in climate-change assessments

IPCC reports provide a synthesis of the state of the science in order to inform the international policy process. This task is made difficult by the presence of deep uncertainty in the climate problem that results from long time scales and complexity. This paper focuses on how deep uncertainty can be effectively communicated. We argue that existing schemes do an inadequate job of communicating deep uncertainty and propose a simple approach that distinguishes between various levels of subjective understanding in a systematic manner. We illustrate our approach with two examples. To cite this article: M. Kandlikar et al., C. R. Geoscience 337 (2005).     

An innovative priming system - emulsion-based booster

The mineral industry is leading towards a technology driven optimization process. Drilling and blasting are such unit operations in a mine, which can alter the balance sheet of the mine if not planned properly. The development, improvement and utilization of innovative technologies in terms of blast monitoring instruments and explosives technology are important for cost effectiveness and safety of mineral industries.

The ever-growing demand for minerals has compelled the industry to adopt large opencast projects using heavy equipment. This has necessitated use of a few hundred tonnes of explosives in each blast. The bulk delivered fourth generation explosives have solved the problem of explosive loading to a large extent as it provides improved safety in manufacturing, transportation and handling. Bulk delivered emulsion is non-explosive until gasification is complete and a large quantity of explosive can be transported and loaded into blast holes efficiently and with safety. The priming of bulk delivered explosives in Indian mines uses the conventional PETN/TNT-based boosters. The conventional booster possesses safety problems in terms of handling and use, so Indian Explosives Ltd has developed an emulsion-based booster (Powergel Boost).

This paper explores the potential of an emulsion-based booster used as a primer to initiate bulk delivered emulsion explosives used in mines. An attempt has been made at a comparative study between the conventional booster and the emulsion-based booster in terms of the initiation process developed and their capability of developing and maintaining a stable detonation process in the column explosives. The study has been conducted using a continuous velocity of detonation (VOD) measuring instrument, the VODMate two channel system manufactured by Instantel Inc. of Canada. During this study three blasts were monitored. In each blast two holes were selected for study, the first hole was initiated using a conventional booster while the other one used an emulsion-based booster. The findings of the study advocates that the emulsion-based booster is capable of the efficient priming of bulk delivered column explosive with a stable detonation process in the column.     

High-T phase transition of synthetic ANaB(LiMg)CMg5Si8O22(OH)2 amphibole: an X-ray synchrotron powder diffraction and FTIR spectroscopic study

The synthetic amphibole Na_0.95(Li_0.95Mg_1.05)Mg₅Si₈O₂₂(OH)₂ was studied in situ at high-T, using IR OH-stretching spectroscopy and synchrotron X-ray powder diffraction. At room-T the sample has P2₁ /m symmetry, as shown by the FTIR spectrum. It shows in the OH region two well-defined and intense absorptions at 3,748 and 3,712 cm⁻¹, respectively, and two minor bands at 3,667 and 3,687 cm⁻¹. The main bands are assigned to the two independent O–H groups in the primitive structure. The two minor bands evidencing the presence of small amount of vacant A-site (^A□_0.05). With increasing T, these bands shift continuously and merge into a unique absorption at high temperature. A change as a function of increasing T is revealed by the evolution of the refined unit-cell parameters, whose trend shows a transition to C2/m at about 320–330°C. The spontaneous scalar strain, fitted with a tricritical 2–6 Landau potential, gives a T _c of 325(10)°C (β parameter = 0.27). Comparison with the second-order P2₁ /m ⇔ C2/m phase transition at 255°C for synthetic amphibole ^ANa_0.8^B(Na_0.8Mg_1.2)^CMg₅Si₈O₂₂(OH)₂ indicates that the substitution of Na with Li at the B-sites strongly affects the thermodynamic character and the T _c of the phase transition. The comparison of LNMSH amphiboles with cummingtonitic ones shows that the high-T thermodynamic behaviour is affected by A-site occupancy.     

Post-Collisional Transition from Subduction- to Intraplate-type Magmatism in the Westernmost Mediterranean: Evidence for Continental-Edge Delamination of Subcontinental Lithosphere

Post-collisional magmatism in the southern Iberian and northwesternAfrican continental margins contains important clues for theunderstanding of a possible causal connection between movementsin the Earth's upper mantle, the uplift of continental lithosphereand the origin of circum-Mediterranean igneous activity. Systematicgeochemical and geochronological studies (major and trace element,Sr–Nd–Pb-isotope analysis and laser ⁴⁰Ar/³⁹Ar-agedating) on igneous rocks provide constraints for understandingthe post-collisional history of the southern Iberian and northwesternAfrican continental margins. Two groups of magmatic rocks canbe distinguished: (1) an Upper Miocene to Lower Pliocene (8·2–4·8Ma), Si–K-rich group including high-K (calc-alkaline)and shoshonitic series rocks; (2) an Upper Miocene to Pleistocene(6·3–0·65 Ma), Si-poor, Na-rich group includingbasanites and alkali basalts to hawaiites and tephrites. Maficsamples from the Si–K-rich group generally show geochemicalaffinities with volcanic rocks from active subduction zones(e.g. Izu–Bonin and Aeolian island arcs), whereas maficsamples from the Si-poor, Na-rich group are geochemically similarto lavas found in intraplate volcanic settings derived fromsub-lithospheric mantle sources (e.g. Canary Islands). The transitionfrom Si-rich (subduction-related) to Si-poor (intraplate-type)magmatism between 6·3 Ma (first alkali basalt) and 4·8Ma (latest shoshonite) can be observed both on a regional scaleand in individual volcanic systems. Si–K-rich and Si-poorigneous rocks from the continental margins of southern Iberiaand northwestern Africa are, respectively, proposed to havebeen derived from metasomatized subcontinental lithosphere andsub-lithospheric mantle that was contaminated with plume material.A three-dimensional geodynamic model for the westernmost Mediterraneanis presented in which subduction of oceanic lithosphere is inferredto have caused continental-edge delamination of subcontinentallithosphere associated with upwelling of plume-contaminatedsub-lithospheric mantle and lithospheric uplift. This processmay operate worldwide in areas where subduction-related andintraplate-type magmatism are spatially and temporally associated. KEY WORDS: post-collisional magmatism; Mediterranean-style back-arc basins; subduction; delamination; uplift of marine gateways     

秦末以来秦都咸阳地貌演变

秦都咸阳地貌演变研究是秦咸阳考古和关中地区历史环境演变研究不容忽视的问题。秦末以来，秦都咸阳地貌演变包括渭河河道北移和咸阳原边坡地貌变化两个方面。通过文献考证与实地考察恢复了秦末、唐、明、清各代渭河的河道位置，秦末以来秦都咸阳段渭河河道北移4100m，平均北移速度1．8764m／a，明代以前北移较慢，以后北移速度显著加快，清顺治至现代北移速度达到5．9701m／a。咸阳原南侧边坡上的中小切沟主要是秦以后形成的。原坡上的村庄平台是历史上人为斩齐原坡，挖掘窑洞，引起原边逐步后退的结果，是咸阳原边坡人为地貌演变的体现。     

惠民凹陷沙三段岩性油藏勘探中地震技术的应用

针对惠民凹陷岩性油藏勘探存在的难题,开展了岩性油藏勘探技术研究。以地震、地质资料为基础,采用井震联合及小波变换技术,完善了层序地层等时格架建立方法,确定了各三角洲的时空展布规律。应用多元综合标定、地震相划分、正演模拟和测井约束反演一系列技术,实现了不同沉积类型有利砂体的描述。形成了适合惠民凹陷沙三段岩性油藏勘探的技术系列,可以指导惠民凹陷沙三段岩性油藏的勘探。     

四川盆地东缘寒武系盐下油气勘探领域探讨

地球物理资料显示四川盆地东缘齐岳山附近寒武系高台组膏盐岩层下深部存在逆冲构造,其形成过程以及油气地质意义未见深入研究。笔者等综合四川盆地东部石柱地区线束三维和建南地区二维地震反射资料,并结合钻井资料以及区域地质研究成果,从构造继承性的角度探讨四川盆地震旦系灯影组台缘带类型,并分析了川东地区寒武系盐下油气圈闭特征。研究获得如下认识：①川东齐岳山北段构造变形强烈,普遍发育基底卷入构造,构造样式受青白口纪—南华纪裂谷与转换带构造位置的控制。②依据构造继承关系将盆内灯影组台缘带划分为德阳—安岳地区原生型台缘带、万源—达州地区继承型台缘带以及石柱地区继承—改造型台缘带。③依据青白口纪—南华纪裂谷的分布和后期构造作用影响大小,认为沿齐岳山向南至南川一带存在与石柱地区相似的灯影组继承—改造型台缘带,忠县、南川以西存在灯影组继承型台缘带。④研究区新元古界—下寒武统烃源岩、灯影组—龙王庙组滩相白云岩储层与寒武系膏盐岩层系构成完整的生储盖组合。⑤寒武系盐下基底逆冲可形成成排、成带的构造,与灯影组继承—改造型台缘带、龙王庙组滩相白云岩储层配置,形成断层相关的构造—岩性圈闭带,成为川东地区油气规模聚集有利区。研究认为四川盆地东部石柱地区震旦纪—早寒武世早期继承了青白口纪—南华纪裂谷构造特征,燕山期构造反转,高台组盐下形成基底卷入逆冲构造,具备生储盖等基本石油地质条件,具有重要的油气勘探现实意义。     

Effect of shipping activity on warming trends in the Canadian Arctic

This paper presents a detailed account of the effect of shipping activity on the increasing trends of air temperatures in the Canadian Arctic region for the period of 1980–2018. Increasing trend of temperature has gained significant attention with respect to shipping activities and sea ice area in the Canadian Arctic. Temperature, sea ice area and shipping traffic datasets were investigated, and simple linear regression analyses were conducted to predict the rate of change(per decade) of the average temperature, considering winter(January) and summer(July) seasons. The results indicate that temperature generally increased over the studied region. Significant warming trend was observed during July, with an increase of up to 1℃, for the Canadian Arctic region. Such increasing trend of temperature was observed during July from the lower to higher latitudes. The increase in temperature during July is speculated to increase the melting of ice. Results also show a decline in sea ice area has a significant positive effect on the shipping traffic, and the numbers of marine vessel continue to increase in the region. The increase in temperature causes the breaking of sea ice due to shipping activities over northern Arctic Canada.     

太湖表层沉积物多环芳烃的空间分布、来源及其风险

随着太湖流域社会与经济的发展,多环芳烃(PAHs)在各种环境介质中逐渐累积,污染日益严重,可能对太湖生态环境及周边人体健康构成威胁。为探究太湖沉积物PAHs的来源及生态风险,于2021年12月在太湖采集30个表层沉积物样品,利用气相色谱-质谱联用仪(GC-MS)检测样品中16种PAHs含量;利用受体模型和苯并[a]芘(BaP)毒性当量法进行来源解析及生态风险评估,并将各来源贡献与毒性当量浓度相结合,量化源风险。结果表明,太湖表层沉积物中16种PAHs总含量介于124~592 ng/g之间,平均值为294 ng/g,中值为279 ng/g;高环多环芳烃(HMW PAHs)为主要组分,占∑PAHs的67%。高含量区域位于竺山湾、梅梁湾、贡湖湾和西太湖,与国内外其他湖泊沉积物相比,太湖沉积物PAHs含量处于较低水平。源解析的结果表明,太湖表层沉积物中PAHs交通排放源贡献率为29.1%、煤炭燃烧源贡献率为26.7%、生物质燃烧源贡献率为28.7%、石油源贡献率为15.6%。生态风险评价结果表明,交通排放源、生物质燃烧源、煤炭燃烧源和石油源的BaP毒性当量含量(TEQ_BaP)均值分别为19.34、17.81、16.33和9.1 ng/g,均小于70 ng/g,几乎处于无风险水平。西太湖、贡湖湾和梅梁湾的部分区域ΣTEQ_BaP大于70 ng/g属于潜在风险区,具有一定潜在毒性。在后续的污染治理中应重点关注太湖西北部地区污染物的排放。本研究可为沉积物中PAHs污染的研究提供数据支撑,为地方政府精准、高效地管控PAHs污染提供理论依据。