基于R/S分析的黑河出山年径流量灰色预测

径流过程具有分形和灰色特征。基于此,将R/S分析与灰色系统理论相结合,提出了R/S灰色预测模型以预报黑河出山径流量。针对1949—2011年莺落峡水文站年径流量资料,首先进行R/S分析,确定径流量序列的Hurst指数和平均循环周期T;然后在一个周期内进行径流量灰色预测。结果表明:黑河出山径流量循环周期在20~25年之间,在进行R/S灰色预测时,取T=20为宜;R/S灰色预测结果的精度高于直接进行灰色预测。该方法拓宽了分形和灰色理论在径流过程研究的应用范围,为径流量的科学预测提供了一种新方法。     

Long term dynamical evolution and classification of classical TNOs

Classical trans-Neptunian objects (TNOs) are believed to represent the most dynamically pristine population in the trans-Neptunian belt (TNB) offering unprecedented clues about the formation of our Solar System. The long term dynamical evolution of classical TNOs was investigated using extensive simulations. We followed the evolution of more than 17000 particles with a wide range of initial conditions taking into account the perturbations from the four giant planets for 4 Gyr. The evolution of objects in the classical region is dependent on both their inclination and semimajor axes, with the inner (a<45 AU) and outer regions (a>45 AU) evolving differently. The reason is the influence of overlapping secular resonances with Uranus and Neptune (40–42 AU) and the 5:3 (a∼ ∼42.3 AU), 7:4 (a∼ ∼43.7 AU), 9:5 (a∼ ∼44.5 AU) and 11:6 (a∼ ∼ 45.0 AU) mean motion resonances strongly sculpting the inner region, while in the outer region only the 2:1 mean motion resonance (a∼ ∼47.7 AU) causes important perturbations. In particular, we found: (a) A substantial erosion of low-i bodies (i<10°) in the inner region caused by the secular resonances, except those objects that remained protected inside mean motion resonances which survived for billion of years; (b) An optimal stable region located at 45 AU<a<47 AU, q>40 AU and i>5° free of major perturbations; (c) Better defined boundaries for the classical region: 42–47.5 AU (q>38 AU) for cold classical TNOs and 40–47.5 AU (q>35 AU) for hot ones, with i=4.5° as the best threshold to distinguish between both populations; (d) The high inclination TNOs seen in the 40–42 AU region reflect their initial conditions. Therefore they should be classified as hot classical TNOs. Lastly, we report a good match between our results and observations, indicating that the former can provide explanations and predictions for the orbital structure in the classical region.     

Comparison of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity Effects on the Northern Hemisphere Weather Changes

The changes of pressure and temperature fields in the winter lower troposphere observed in association with changes in solar and/or geomagnetic activity are compared. It is shown that the fact whether it was solar or geomagnetic activity was not so important as whether the levels of the two activities were high or low. The differences between the effects of solar/geomagnetic activity, however, are revealed, the pressure and temperature data being stratified according to the QBO phase. The relationship obtained are discussed from the viewpoint of mechanisms resting upon both the planetary wave propagation and the changes of atmospheric air currents in the global electric circuit.     

Tomographic studies of exoplanet atmospheres

We review the current state of models for the optical and near‐infrared reflection spectra of exoplanetary atmospheres, with particular reference to the close‐orbiting giant planets that offer the best prospects for high‐resolution spectroscopic detection.We describe the main steps in the tomographic procedures that have been used in recent attempts to separate these faint signals from the direct spectra of the parent stars.We compare recent, deep upper limits on planetary albedos with model predictions, and discuss prospects for future attempts to detect and characterise the reflection, transmission and thermal emission spectra of these planets at optical and infrared wavelengths. (© 2004 WILEY‐VCH Verlag GmbH & Co. KGaA, Weinheim)     

Living coccolithophores in the western Pacific Ocean with mesoscale eddies

Living coccolithophores(LCs) are regarded as a group of calcifiers and play important roles in global carbon cycle.This study used microscopic observations of LCs in the western Pacific Ocean to investigate their community structure and biodiversity,especially to test whether local physical traits(mesoscale eddies) could explain their biogeographic distributions during autumn of 2017.The coccolithophore calcite inventory based on carbon-volume transformation was estimated in this study.A total of 28 taxa of coccospheres and 19 types of coccoliths were identified from 161 samples.Gephyrocapsa oceanica was the most predominant species in all the coccolithophore community,followed by Florisphaera profunda,Emiliania huxleyi,Umbilicosphaera sibogae,Gladiolithusflabellatus and Umbellosphaera tenuis.The abundance of coccospheres and coccoliths ranged from 0 to 26.8×10~3 cells/L and from 0 to 138.5×10~3 coccoliths/L,averaged at 4.2×10~3 cells/L and 10.9×10~3 coccoliths/L,respectively.This study indicated that coccolithophore community in the survey area can be clustered into four groups.Three ecological niches of coccolithophores were characterized by their vertical profiles and multivariate statistical analysis.Coccolithophore abundance and species composition were remarkably different among warm-eddy region,G.oceanica dominated warm-eddy region,while F.profunda dominated warm-eddy and none-eddy region.The average values of estimated particulate inorganic carbon,particulate organic carbon were0.197 μg/L and 0.140 μg/L,respectively.The current field study widened the dataset of coccolithophores in western Pacific Ocean.     

MSRT的太阳观测能力

密云米波综合孔径射电望远镜（ ＭＳＲＴ） 是一架同时具有高空间分辨率和高时间分辨率,高灵敏度的大型设备,工作频率在２３２ ＭＨｚ。使用该望远镜能得到太阳爆发的空间分布及其随时间变化的丰富信息,所得数据将填补我国具有空间分辨率的太阳射电数据的空白。在国际太阳活动监测中,由于地理位置原因,也是其它同类设备不可取代的。可以期待在第２３ 周太阳峰年的观测与研究中,得到新的有意义的数据和研究成果     

太阳耀斑(后)环系物理量的二维分布和演化特征

用“多云模型”方法对1989年8月17日太阳边缘耀斑的二维Hβ光谱进行分析研究，得到了该耀斑环系3个物理量(氢原子在第二能态的柱数密度N2，激发温度Tex和微湍流速度Vt)在不同时间的二维分布和演化特征，结果表明：(1)密度，温度和湍流速度的分布是不均匀和不对称的，它们的分布跟耀斑环内的位置密切相关、而与高度关系不大；(2)密度N2和湍流速度Vt随时间减小，而温度几乎不变，环项温度还随时间有所增加；(3)首次揭示了N2和Tex的极值位置从环的一个腿向环的顸部移动，而同时Vt的极值位置却由环顶部向环的另一个腿运动，似乎在环内形成类“虹吸”现象。     

Morlet小波用于测井沉积旋回多尺度特性研究

测井数据包含丰富的地质信息,是研究沉积旋回多尺度特性的主要资料。利用Morlet小波基函数对SP测井曲线进行连续小波变换,可探测到不同尺度沉积旋回的分界面。地质学意义在于:包含多个不同尺度沉积旋回信息的测井曲线,通过Morlet连续小波变换,被分解成各自独立的单一尺度的旋回,尺度因子的大小反映了地层沉积周期的长短。这也为沉积旋回的定量划分提供了一种新的思路。     

Solar filaments as tracers of subsurface processes

Solar filaments are discussed in terms of two contrasting paradigms. The standard paradigm is that filaments are formed by condensation of coronal plasma into magnetic fields that are twisted or dimpled as a consequence of motions of the fields&amp;#x2019; sources in the photosphere. According to a new paradigm, filaments form in rising, twisted flux ropes and are a necessary intermediate stage in the transfer to interplanetary space of dynamo-generated magnetic flux. It is argued that the accumulation of magnetic helicity in filaments and their coronal surroundings leads to filament eruptions and coronal mass ejections. These ejections relieve the Sun of the flux generated by the dynamo and make way for the flux of the next cycle.