A physically-based model of long-term food demand

Reducing hunger while staying within planetary boundaries of pollution, land use and fresh water use is one of the most urgent sustainable development goals. It is imperative to understand future food demand, the agricultural system, and the interactions with other natural and human systems. Studying such interactions in the long-term future is often done with Integrated Assessment Modelling. In this paper we develop a new food demand model to make projections several decades ahead, having 46 detailed food categories and population segmented by income and urban vs rural. The core of our model is a set of relationships between income and dietary patterns, with differences between regions and income inequalities within a region. Hereby we take a different, more long-term-oriented approach than elasticity-based macro-economic models (Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) and Partial Equilibrium (PE) models). The physical and detailed nature of our model allows for fine-grained scenario exploration. We first apply the model to the newly developed Shared Socio-economic Pathways (SSP) scenarios, and then to additional sustainable development scenarios of food waste reduction and dietary change. We conclude that total demand for crops and grass could increase roughly 35–165% between 2010 and 2100, that this future demand growth can be tempered more effectively by replacing animal products than by reducing food waste, and that income-based consumption inequality persists and is a contributing factor to our estimate that 270 million people could still be undernourished in 2050.     

Long-term growth and metropolitan spatial structures: an analysis of factors influencing urban patch size under different economic cycles

Urban forms are increasingly reflective of socio-economic change in metropolitan regions. The present study illustrates an original approach to identify latent mechanisms of urban growth through the analysis of metropolitan spatial structures and their proximate drivers of change. Urban transformations are evaluated here using built-up patches as the elementary analysis unit and background socio-economic attributes at four stages of the “city life cycle” (urbanization, suburbanization, dis-urbanization, re-urbanization). Regression models based on 13 indicators assessing urban patch area and shape, nearest neighbour urban patch area and shape, elevation, distance from 5 urban centres, 2 road infrastructures and sea coastline, were run with the aim to investigate direction and intensity of metropolitan growth in post-war Athens (1948–2012), a southern European city shifting from a compact mono-centric form towards discontinuous urban structures. Mono-centric configurations were characterized by linear dependence of urban patch size from the distance to central cities. Shifts toward scattered urban forms were associated with changes in the multivariate relationship between urban patch size and territorial drivers, pointing out the increased complexity of dispersed metropolitan structures. Our approach integrates economic and ecological visions of urban landscapes and contributes to understanding long-term mechanisms of metropolitan growth under dynamic spatial equilibriums. Investigating the multiple relationships between form and functions at the base of socio-economic transformations are relevant issues when identifying and profiling urbanization cycles.     

Reviews

Bppks reviewed:
Reginald Appleyard, (ed.) Emigration dynamics in developing countries. Vol. IV: the Arab region
Curt Meine and Richard L. Knight, (eds.) The Essential Aldo Leopold. Quotations and Commentaries
Jyoti Shankar Singh, Creating a New Consensus on Population
Walden Bello, Shea Cunningham and Li Kheng Poh, A Siamese Tragedy
Bart Makaske, Anastomosing Rivers: Forms, Processes and Sediments
Philip Micklin, Managing Water in Central Asia
Iwao Kobori and Michael H. Glantz, (eds.) Central Eurasian Water Crisis: Caspian, Aral, and Dead Seas
John R. Gold and George Revill, (eds.) Landscapes of Defence
Monica Trujillo Amado Ordonez and Carlos Hernandez, Risk Mapping and Local Capabilities: Lessons from Mexico and Central America
R. Dalton, H. Fox and P. Jones, Classic Landforms of the White Peak (second edition), Classic Landforms of the Dark Peak (second edition)
Tatyana Saiko, Environmental Crises: Geographical Case Studies in Post-Socialist Eurasia
F. Brouwer and P. Lowe, (eds.) CAP Regimes and the European Countryside
Andrew Goudie, The Human Impact on the Natural Environment (fifth edition)
Jean Radvanyi, La Nouvelle Russie (second edition)
John Vogler, The Global Commons: Environmental and Technological Governance (second edition)     

农村社会经济因素变化对嘉陵江产沙量的影响

以大量实测资料为基础,通过自然科学与人文科学的跨学科研究,分析了农村社会经济因素变化对嘉陵江产沙量的影响。发现嘉陵江年产沙量与径流量之间的双累积曲线上出现两个下偏转折,分别发生于1983~1984年和1992~1993年。第一转折点的出现与流域社会经济因素的变化有密切的关系;第二个转折点与长江上游水土保持重点治理工程有密切关系,但社会经济因素的影响也不容忽视,因为第二转折点与诸多社会经济因素变化的转折点具有同步性。从嘉陵江北碚站年产沙量与农民人均纯收入、农民人均购买燃料支出和农业产值占GDP百分比的相关关系中查明了3个临界点,即当农民人均收入<400元/a时,由于贫穷所产生的对土地的压力,使得侵蚀产沙量突变式增大;当农民人均燃料支出<20元/a时,农民将主要通过砍伐树木和灌木、收集林下的枯枝落叶、割草甚至于挖掘草根来获取燃料,使得侵蚀产沙量突变式增大;当农业产值占GDP百分比>40%时,农村人口对土地的压力使得侵蚀产沙量突变式增大。建立了北碚站年产沙量和已转移的乡村劳动力数量占乡村劳动力总数百分比、农村人均纯收入和农村人均用于购买燃料的支出之间的多元回归方程,并估算出,上述3个变量的变化对北碚站年产沙量变化的贡献率分别为36.00%,21.59%和42.41%。     

开发区发展与西安城市经济社会空间极化分异

从阐释开发区“特区”运作机制、“新经济”型产业结构、配套住宅开发策略等特有开发模式及内在结构特性入手,以西安市为实证案例,以翔实的调研数据为支撑,剖析了开发区建设发展与城市经济-社会空间极化分异之关联及其典型过程与效应;并通过开发区与非开发区、新城与老城、新经济区与旧产业区之间在投资强度、发展速度、软硬环境、形象面貌、经济活力与潜力、人口成分与素质等诸多方面分异对比日益鲜明的一系列事实,论证了开发区建设发展已成为强化凸显当代中国城市经济-社会空间极化演变的机制之一。研究结果有助于更深入全面地认识评估“开发区”--这一机制独特、存在广泛、极富改革开放新时期特色的城市发展模式之影响与绩效。     

转型期中国城市社会空间演进动力及其模式研究--以广州市为例

1990年代,社会经济转型期中国城市社会空间演进机制成为城市地理学、城市社会学研究的重点。以广州市为例,分析出现的“城中村”、大学城、“华南板块”等若干“新社会空间”类型,发现“新自由主义”经济发展策略及其政府的企业化行为、市场力量的强大与投机成为该时期城市社会空间演进的内在动力,在此基础上总结其社会空间结构演进的抽象模式。     

Recovery from demographic shock in the New Länder of Germany

After the fall of the Berlin Wall in November 1989, East Germany experienced a demographic shock as the ensuing insecurity and disorientation of the population was mirrored in their demographic behaviour. The situation is examined with respect to marriage, fertility and mortality. There are now signs of recovery but most people in the New Länder are still traumatised by events: nuptiality and fertility are still extremely low, while mortality is rapidly moving towards West German levels. Future demographic development will very much depend on socio-economic development and the provision of both hard and soft infrastructure conducive to stable partnerships and families since the current 'framework' has proved to be particularly unfriendly to women and children.     

河西走廊景观类型变化的社会经济驱动力研究

利用1995和2000年两个时期的Landsat5的4、3、2(RGB)波段合成影像解译结果, 采用中国科学院资源环境数据库中的全国1∶10万土地资源利用分类系统, 对河西走廊近5年来景观动态变化的驱动力进行了研究。为判断出区域景观类型变化趋势, 研究从区域背景变化格局分析入手, 对区域内部变化斑块的几何特征、变化数目及与GDP的对应关系进行统计分析, 得出河西走廊景观变化和社会经济发展具有较高的时空相关性, 进而用典型相关分析方法来推导了斑块变化的内在社会经济驱动力。结果表明: ①引起耕地斑块转出的因子是农牧投入-产出的增加, 水域斑块转出直接与渔业产值有关, 未利用地斑块转出与农业机械的使用和播种面积增加相关, 林地斑块转出的因子是农业产量和工业产值的变化, 城建斑块转出与农民收入低、城市化水平有关; 城镇用地斑块转入是工业产值增加的结果, 草地、林地斑块转入的因子是农业投入的增加, 耕地斑块转入与农民收入增加有关, 水域斑块转入直接因子是渔业产值增加。②结合驱动力类型分析, 耕地面积变化主要是最优经济福利及粮食安全驱动作用下的结果; 草地、林地被开垦, 耕地增加主要是生存型经济福利驱动的结果, 最优经济福利驱动有时也起到一定的作用; 城镇用地增加主要是最优经济福利驱动的结果; 在生态环境脆弱及其     

影响土壤侵蚀的社会经济因素研究进展

本文在总结了人为加速侵蚀研究的基础上,介绍了人口增长、政策导向、经济发展和土地利用变化4个方面社会经济因素对土壤侵蚀的影响,概述了国内外对影响土壤侵蚀的社会经济因素的研究方法。在以上综述的基础上提出了以后研究需要深入的3个方面:多学科交叉研究、社会经济学模型研究和区域差异化研究。     

基于SD模型的黄河流域生态环境与社会经济发展可持续性模拟

要实现黄河流域生态保护和高质量发展,需解决流域生态环境与社会经济发展的可持续问题。运用系统动力学方法,构建社会、经济、资源与环境4个子系统,设计维持现状、优先发展社会、优先发展经济、优先节约资源、优先保护环境以及协同发展6个情景,在对不同情景进行模拟仿真的基础上,探寻实现黄河流域生态环境与社会经济可持续发展的最优方案。结果表明：在协同发展情景中,黄河流域的社会经济得到较快发展,总人口和国内生产总值（GDP）于2030年将分别增长10.93%和499.05%;资源的使用效率得到提高,单位GDP水耗和能耗于2030将分别下降78.31%和68.16%;污染物的排放量可有效降低,工业化学需氧量（COD）排放量和工业二氧化硫（SO₂）排放量于2030将分别下降80.64%和80.17%。相较于其他情景,协同发展是黄河流域实现生态环境与社会经济可持续发展的最优方案。