Inter- and intra-annual trend analysis of water level and flow in the middle and lower reaches of the Ganjiang River,China

ABSTRACT

The Ganjiang River is the largest tributary of Poyang Lake in China, and its hydrological regime variation greatly affects the utilization of regional water resources and the ecological environment of the lake. In this study, a novel trend analysis method, the Moving Average over Shifting Horizon (MASH), was applied to investigate the inter- and intra-annual trends of flow and water level from 1976 to 2016 at the Xiajiang and the Waizhou hydrological stations in the Ganjiang River. The Significant Change Rate Method (SCRM) was proposed to determine the MASH averaging parameters. The trend analysis results show a statistically significant decrease in water level series throughout the year and the relationship of flow and water level have changed greatly at the Waizhou station. The sediment load reduction, large-scale sand mining and water level decrease of Poyang Lake are identified as the main causes for the water level decrease.     

干旱区膜下滴灌棉田表层土壤盐分日内动态特征

利用便携式土壤盐分计测量膜下滴灌棉田不同位置和不同深度的土壤电导率,来研究膜下滴灌条件下表层土壤电导率的日内变化特征.结果显示:干旱区一膜两管膜下滴灌条件下,窄行处土壤电导率值最低,膜间最大,宽行居中,表层土壤电导率值存在显著的日内变化特征,早晚土壤电导率值低,中午电导率值高,上午的上升速率大于下午的下降速率;窄行处相对变化幅度大,膜间绝对变化幅度大,土壤电导率值日内变化幅度随深度呈减小趋势;膜下滴灌情况下,表层土壤电导率值的变化受土壤温度和气温的影响显著,但二者相关性复杂,不同深度、不同时间段的相关性不同,膜间大多呈显著正相关,窄行大多呈非显著正相关,宽行处上午呈非显著正相关,但下午呈显著负相关.     

动态城市交通网络优化模型研究及算法设计

在城市交通网络中,行车路线所耗时间是用户关心的关键因素之一.本文构建了基于时间因素的城市交通网络模型,为反映交通网络随时间动态变化的特性,网络模型中弧的权重是和时间统计变量相关.本文设计了交通网络模型算法,并对算法进行了详细的论述.针对实际交通网络的行驶线路选择人群中乐观型、保守型和折中型,给出了路线选择的简化模型.文...     

中国大陆地震地下流体异常特征研究

根据《中国震例》(1966~1999年)在中国大陆发生M_S≥5.0地震188次震例资料 , 将其中与流体异常相关的126个震例中的803项流体异常按异常出现、 异常转折至发震随时间变化和异常数量随震中距距离变化分布的时、 空特征进行统计、 分析。 研究结果表明, 无论是趋势性异常还是短临异常, 在不同的时间段中, 异常数量呈现出明显的阶段性分布特征; 异常数量空间分布会随震中距的变化而不同。 在统计研究中还表明, 两者在时、 空分布方面有较好的一致性。     

Assessing the Vibrational Frequencies of the Cathedral of Cologne (Germany) by Means of Ambient Seismic Noise Analysis

Ambient seismic noise measurements were conducted inside the Cathedral of Cologne (Germany) for assessing its frequencies of vibration and for checking whether these occur in the range where soil amplification is expected. If this is the case, damages may increase in case of an earthquake due to an increased structural response of the building. Analysis of the ratio between the horizontal and vertical components of the spectra recorded at stations located inside the building as well as the ratio between the corresponding components of the spectra recorded simultaneously inside the building and at a reference station placed in the basement of the cathedral indicated several modes of vibration. Facilitated by these results an assessment of the seismic vulnerability was attempted for a 2D ground motion scenario using the finite element method.     

黑龙江盘古-碧水韧性剪切带中段构造地球化学特征

盘古-碧水韧性剪切带中段糜棱岩的叠加强度和质量平衡分析表明:剪切带在变形过程中组分发生了显著的交换。糜棱岩类总体CaO、K2O、SiO2大量带入,TiO2、MnO、FeO是带出的。随着糜棱岩化程度的提高,SiO2、K2O、MnO明显带入,CaO少量带出。以Al2O3守恒为限制条件,整个剪切带质量和体积增加了16.87%。大规模的物质带入带出发生在糜棱岩阶段。     

双剪统一强度准则改进及其在岩土工程中的应用

在分析Mohr-Coulomb强度准则和双剪统一强度准则的基础上,提出了主剪面应力对和主剪面应力对的作用这2个新概念,并以此为出发点,通过考虑十二面体单元主剪面上所有3个主剪面应力对的共同作用,在双剪强度准则的基础上提出了一个新准则,并对其作了极限线分析.应用该新强度准则研究了静水压力条件下圆形巷道围岩弹塑性分析和土压力计算问题.研究表明,该准则不仅能较好地非线性反映岩土的3个基本强度特征,还解决了双剪统一准则中存在的双重破坏角问题.     

Parameter and rating curve uncertainty propagation analysis of the SWAT model for two small Mediterranean catchments

Abstract

The SWAT model was tested to simulate the streamflow of two small Mediterranean catchments (the Vène and the Pallas) in southern France. Model calibration and prediction uncertainty were assessed simultaneously by using three different techniques (SUFI-2, GLUE and ParaSol). Initially, a sensitivity analysis was conducted using the LH-OAT method. Subsequent sensitive parameter calibration and SWAT prediction uncertainty were analysed by considering, firstly, deterministic discharge data (assuming no uncertainty in discharge data) and secondly, uncertainty in discharge data through the development of a methodology that accounts explicitly for error in the rating curve (the stage?discharge relationship). To efficiently compare the different uncertainty methods and the effect of the uncertainty of the rating curve on model prediction uncertainty, common criteria were set for the likelihood function, the threshold value and the number of simulations. The results show that model prediction uncertainty is not only case-study specific, but also depends on the selected uncertainty analysis technique. It was also found that the 95% model prediction uncertainty interval is wider and more successful at encompassing the observations when uncertainty in the discharge data is considered explicitly. The latter source of uncertainty adds additional uncertainty to the total model prediction uncertainty.

Editor D. Koutsoyiannis; Associate editor D. Gerten

Citation Sellami, H., La Jeunesse, I., Benabdallah, S., and Vanclooster, M., 2013. Parameter and rating curve uncertainty propagation analysis of the SWAT model for two small Mediterranean watersheds. Hydrological Sciences Journal, 58 (8), 1635?1657.     

云南罗平中三叠统关岭组二段碳酸盐岩微相分析

通过详细的野外观察和室内镜下薄片分析,于中三叠统关岭组二段中初步识别出8种微相类型。结合宏观沉积构造及罗平生物群保存特征,认为云南罗平关岭组二段为碳酸盐岩缓坡沉积,可划分出深水盆地、深缓坡、深缓坡远端变陡、浅缓坡和后缓坡5个沉积相。沉积相在垂向上是向上变浅(海退)的沉积序列。罗平生物群的沉积环境为深水、低能、安静的海洋环境,突发的风暴事件导致了生物群大量死亡,并被迅速埋藏。     

甘肃矿业的经济社会支撑度分析

甘肃是我国矿产资源相对丰富的省区之一,矿种齐全,分布面广,部分矿种的探明资源储量大,有色和贵金属矿产具有比较优势。在经济持续快速发展的新时期,矿产资源的经济社会支撑和保障能力是需要认真分析的战略问题。本文从甘肃实际出发,以统计数据为依据,分析了矿产资源对甘肃经济社会发展的支撑能力,提出了矿产资源开发和可持续利用的政策措施。