高铁流视角下的中国县域网络结构特征与演化研究

高铁通过改变城市间的连接性和联系强度来影响城市网络的结构、功能和关系。随着中国高铁网络的延伸与升级,基于高铁流来认识和解构城市网络成为了重要的途径之一。论文从高铁流出发,借助2008—2018年高铁客运班次数据和社会网络分析方法,对中国县域网络结构特征和演化进程进行分析。结果表明：① 高铁网络密度逐年提高。东中部地区的中心度值较高,枢纽地位明显,多条高铁干线的核心交汇点易生成高中介度节点。② 多重网络结构层级性辨识出具有演化分异的层级特征和复杂多样的联系格局。第一、第二层级节点效应显著,区位优势明显;第三层级是网络的延伸和细化。③ 地域邻近程度和空间联系强度决定了凝聚子群的构成,受高铁线路布局的影响,子群呈现“多核化”趋势,具体表现为延伸、合并和新增3种演化类型。     

社会记忆的旅游开发分析——以淮南煤炭记忆为例

科技的发展和人们思维观念的转变,使得新形式的记忆承载物突破单一教育功能的限制,旅游开始介入社会记忆领域。运用社会记忆理论,使用质性分析软件NVivo8.0,对淮南煤炭记忆进行探析,指出淮南煤炭记忆实质上分为两部分,一是煤炭记忆之苦,二是忆苦思甜。最后,探讨了旅游和淮南煤炭记忆的关系,提出了具体的措施来建构煤炭记忆纪念物,包括加强煤炭记忆的档案建设、建设大型矿山公园、市井生活再塑造、多种业态并存。     

“一带一路”若干区域社会发展态势大数据分析

“一带一路”倡议已成为中国的基本国际政策,及时掌握沿线国家的社会发展态势,对确保该倡议的稳步推进与顺利实施至关重要。为此,论文将GDELT数据库作为数据来源,获取了“一带一路”沿线25个国家近5 a的英文新闻全文数据,引入主题模型,结合无监督方法(LDA)与监督方法(Labeled LDA)挖掘新闻数据中蕴含的主题,构建社会稳定度模型,分析各国社会发展态势。研究发现：① 沿线国家社会发展态势不均衡,可划分为4类,即稳定型,如阿曼、越南等;较稳定型,如乌兹别克斯坦、伊朗等;较高风险型,如科威特、约旦、巴基斯坦、缅甸;高风险型,如叙利亚、阿富汗等。② 通过新闻主题时空挖掘,可有效发现热点区域,例如论文发现安集延对中亚地区社会发展与稳定具有重要影响。③ 利用监督主题模型,能够发现乌兹别克斯坦经济产业结构,识别出重大社会事件,发现其社会安全风险及变化趋势。采用论文方法可有效挖掘新闻事件时空变化规律,发现各国潜在风险,支撑对沿线国家社会发展态势的实时动态监控,为“一带一路”倡议的实施提供辅助决策支持,具有重要的应用价值。     

Impacts of seismic activity and climatic change on Chinese history in the recent millennium

General history of disasters in China suggests that China has frequently experienced two major natural disasters in its long history, one is from catastrophic earthquake events, and the other is from extreme climatic events, due to its unique active tectonic environment and climatic complexity. Although these two major natural disasters have caused great damage to human society, it remains unclear whether and how they affect Chinese dynasty alternation on decadal(emperor) timescales. Based on de...     

The Social Geography of Childhood Mortality,Toronto, 1901

Urban geographers and historians have long recognized the relationship between cities and poor health, though few have documented this relationship for cities in the past. While trends, and national or regional variations, of mortality rates are well documented for Britain and Europe, the picture is less complete for North America. Through the use of household data aggregated to the neighborhood scale, this paper explores the spatial variation of childhood mortality (deaths under the age of five) in relation to the social geography of Toronto, Canada, in 1901. Examination of individual records illustrate that the traditional dichotomous relationship between suburban and inner-city areas, in terms of health status (mortality), did not exist in turn of the 20th century Toronto. Rather, inner-city slums and suburban fringe areas were found to be equally likely to have high levels of childhood mortality. Furthermore, the neighborhood spatial patterns of childhood mortality were more affected by the residential segregation of religious groups (e.g., Catholics and Jews) than the distribution of households by social class or the housing conditions in which the people lived.     

人文地理学学科体系与发展战略要点

本文属于《中国学科及前沿领域发展战略研究（2021—2035）》地理科学学科规划的系列成果之一,写作组在对人文地理学学科发展进行系统梳理与分析判研的基础上,在本文中侧重介绍未来15年的中国人文地理学学科体系与发展战略要点。人文地理学是研究人类活动地理分布格局形成和演变规律的一门学科。随着人类发展临近和进入后工业化阶段,人类活动的经济社会过程对人文地理分布规律的影响越来越重要,社会科学研究思维和方法已成为探讨和理解变化的人文地理过程和格局的重要途径,人文地理学研究方法论也呈现出自然科学和社会科学综合集成的特色。人文地理学研究的成果产出,揭示了人类活动地理分布格局和演变的科学规律,成为调控和优化国土空间开发保护格局的科学基础,在国土空间规划、区域战略和区域政策制定、空间治理现代化等方面有着广泛的应用,人文地理学的科学研究与决策应用之间具有紧密的关系。根据学科发展现状、趋势及主要产出结果,中国人文地理学可按照5个分支学科群进行学科战略布局,包括综合人文地理学、经济地理学、城市地理学、乡村地理学、社会文化地理学和政治地理学。各分支学科在新时期地理科学学科体系下,具有其优先发展领域与重点方向,相互协调,不断创新。     

First insights on spatial and temporal distribution patterns of humpback whales in the breeding ground at Sainte Marie Channel,Madagascar

The Sainte Marie Channel on the northeast coast of Madagascar is an important breeding ground for humpback whales; the first observation of birth was documented there, yet it has never been investigated for phenology and habitat use of humpback whales. The present study was aimed at examining temporal and spatial distribution patterns and the encounter rate of different social groups of humpback whales during the breeding season. We used a large set of opportunistic sightings data collected from whale-watching boats. A total of 3 247 sightings were collected during 897 whale-watching trips conducted between June and September from 2009 to 2013. Our study complements previous information on the seasonal presence of humpback whale social groups by demonstrating a persistent and well-structured temporal pattern in the succession of the different groups. Over the different years of the study period, groups without calves consistently dominated the first 30 days of the breeding season, followed by an increase in groups with calves. Interannual differences were observed in the encounter rates, with significantly higher global encounter rates in 2009, 2011 and 2013 (2.2, 2.3 and 2.3 sightings h^–1, respectively), and likewise for the mean encounter rates for groups with calves. In contrast, the encounter rate of groups without calves was similar over the study period. Although our study area exhibits a narrow configuration and poorly contrasting physiographic features due to its restricted spatial extent, we report a spatially segregated pattern of humpback whale social groups in the Sainte Marie Channel. A general linear model showed that groups with calves were influenced by water depth and distance from shore, being observed mostly in shallow waters (to 20 m depth) and close to the coastline (6 km). Our findings will be useful for the development of strategic sustained management plans by providing baseline information on humpback whale distribution at an important but poorly documented breeding site.     

Can a Simulated Flood Experience Improve Social Resilience to Disasters?

The increase of extreme meteorological phenomena, along with continuous population growth, has led to a rising number of flooding disasters. Therefore, there is an urgent need to develop better risk reduction strategies, among which is increased social resilience. Experiencing a disaster is recognized as a factor that positively influences overall community resilience, with particular effects on social resilience; it appears to be more influential than school education. It also has many negative effects, though. Previous studies underline that citizens do not distinguish between different types of experiences. Thus, we investigated whether a simulated experience of a flood can improve social resilience, without being hampered by negative repercussions. The study was executed in five municipalities in three Italian regions involved in the European project LIFE PRIMES, which planned simulation activities for each studied area. Data, collected through the administration of anonymous questionnaires before and after a flood drill, were processed by applying a multicriteria decision analysis tool (PROMETHEE). Results show that the drill significantly augmented perceived social resilience in the smaller studied communities but not in the larger ones, a fact that should be further investigated. Key Words: multicriteria decision analysis, simulated flood experience, social resilience to disasters.     

城市微环境与盗窃犯罪关系研究进展

城市微观社会环境和微观建成环境（即“城市微环境”）失序是影响盗窃犯罪时空格局和形成机理的两大关键因素,直接影响犯罪的机会、成本和手段,掌握微环境与盗窃的关系是CPTED、犯罪地理学的核心内容。本文聚焦国内外城市微环境与盗窃关系的研究进展,系统梳理了影响盗窃时空分异的城市微环境特征,总结了微环境的测度方式。总体上有4类问题待解决：① 当前利用手机大数据求算的环境人口指标主要为人口数量和流动性,少有从人口属性、社交规律等方面深层刻画微观社会环境。② 缺乏对微观建成、社会环境的系统性整合,易导致伪相关或不相关。③ 西方犯罪学理论的“本土化”实证研究不够充分,理论内涵和概念存在本土操作化困难,中国实证研究产生的“本土”知识对西方理论有补充性和挑战性,但还需“国际概念化”。④ 街景已被用于微观建成环境的虚拟测量,但随机选取测量地点的做法因未顾及微观社会环境的非均衡性而缺乏针对性。未来有4方面研究趋势：① 与公安部门紧密合作,结合敏感数据,刻画微观尺度人口属性、社交规律等特征,拓展“风险人口”的概念外延,准确反映微观社会环境,开展理论和政策导向的实证研究。② 耦合微观社会和建成环境,从社会、环境、行为等多维理论层面辨析两种微观环境的互嵌依据和耦合路径,诉诸“大”数据刻画“微”环境,探索微环境对盗窃的条件交互机制和尺度依赖性。③ 把握犯罪学理论内涵,兼顾中国城市社会情境,开发理论核心概念“本土”操作化新可能。④ 持续发展基于街景的远程化、虚拟化、自动化、智能化建成环境观测手段,注重针对性采样和系统性整合研究。