Stochastic wobble of accretion discs and jets from turbulent rocket torques

Models of accretion discs and their associated outflows often incorporate assumptions of axisymmetry and symmetry across the disc plane. However, for turbulent discs these symmetries only apply to averaged quantities and do not apply locally. The local asymmetries can induce local imbalances in outflow power across the disc mid-plane, which can in turn induce local tilting torques. Here we calculate the effect of the resulting stochastic torques on disc annuli that are a consequence of standard mean field accretion disc models. The torques induce a random walk of the vector perpendicular to the plane of each averaged annulus. This random walk is characterized by a radially dependent diffusion coefficient which we calculate for small angle tilt. We use the coefficient to calculate a radially dependent time-scale for annular tilt and associated jet wobble. The wobble time depends on the square of the wander angle so the age of a given system determines the maximum wobble angle. We apply this to examples of blazars, young stellar objects and binary engines of pre-planetary nebulae and microquasars. It is noteworthy that for an averaging time   t _w∼ 3 d  , we estimate a wobble angle for jets in SS 433 of  θ∼ 0.8°  , not inconsistent with observational data. In general the non-periodic nature of the stochastic wobble could distinguish it from faster periodic jet precession.     

中国生态交错带（英文）

生态交错带（Ecotone）是指两个群落或两类生态系统之间的过度带,具有脆弱、敏感和易变等特性。20世纪70年代以来,在典型生态系统研究的基础上,生态交错带逐步成为生态学研究的重点。中国地域广阔,地质、气候、植被等生态类型复杂多变,蕴育了不同类型、不同尺度和不同规模的多种生态交错带,不仅为科学研究奠定了广阔空间,而且对我国经济、社会发展,以及文化多样性保护具有重要支撑作用。本文根据我国大尺度下生态交错带的地理分布及其生态环境特点,构建了以土地利用类型、自然气候特征和农业经济发展＂三位一体＂指标体系,并以此为依据对中国典型生态交错带进行了划分和空间分布范围的界定;在此基础上,分别对北方森林草原交错带、北方农牧交错带、西北荒漠绿洲交错带、西南川滇农林牧交错带和东部海陆交错带的动态变化、基本特征和存在问题进行了研究,对全面认识我国生态交错带自然演变规律,促进区域生态环境保护和优化经济发展具有重要意义。     

近50年青藏高原东部降雪的时空演变

选用1967-2012年青藏高原东部60个站点的观测资料,分析了该地区降雪的时空演变特征,并结合降水和气温的变化,探讨了降雪与积雪的关系,结果表明：青藏高原东部年降雪量在1.3~152.5 mm范围内变化,空间分布差异显著;秋季降雪表现出中间多、周边少的特征,冬季降雪表现出由东南向西北递减的特征,春季降雪最多且空间分布与年降雪基本一致;降雪可划分为青南高原区、藏北高原区、柴达木盆地区、青藏高原东南缘区、川西高原西北部区、青藏高原南缘区、青海东北部区及藏南谷地区;就青藏高原整体而言,除秋季外,整年、冬季和春季降雪均表现出“少—多—少”的年代际变化特征,其中冬季降雪在1986年发生了由少到多的突变,整年、冬季和春季降雪均在1997年发生了由多到少的突变;不同区域降雪的时间变化规律各具特点;降雪与积雪的关系十分密切,春季降雪受气温的影响最为显著,秋季次之,冬季最弱;20世纪末,春季降雪受气温升高的影响表现出与降水变化相反的由多到少的气候突变特征。     

腾格里沙漠东南缘沙丘形态示量特征及其影响因素

对腾格里沙漠东南缘主要类型沙丘形态示量及其影响因素分析认为,沙丘高度与间距之间具有明显的幂函数关系,而且这种关系所反映的沙丘动态(加积或前移)随沙丘类型、分布而异。影响沙丘规模与间距的因素比较复杂,粒度的影响没有普遍性;背风侧次生气流尺度对简单横向沙丘具有一定的控制作用;输沙率的影响表现在,各尺度等级风成床面形态及规模对输沙率的变化具有不同时空尺度的响应。     

Spatial and temporal distribution of precipitation based on corrected TRMM data around the Hexi Corridor, China

Accurate rainfall distribution is difficult to acquire based on limited meteorological stations, especially in remote areas like high mountains and deserts. The Hexi Corridor and its adjacent regions （including the Qilian Mountains and the Alxa Plateau） are typical districts where there are only 30 available rain gauges. Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission （TRMM） data provide a possible solution. After precision analysis of monthly 0.25 degree resolution TRMM 3B43 data from 1998 to 2012, we find that the correlations between TRMM 3B43 estimates and rain gauge precipitation are significant overall and in each station around the Hexi Corridor; however, the biases of annual precipitation differ in different stations and are seriously overestimated in most of the sites. Thus, Inverse Distance Weighting （IDW） interpolation method was used to rectify TRMM data based on the difference between TRMM 3B43 estimates and rain gauge observations. The results show that rectified TRMM data present more details than rain gauges in remote areas where there are few stations, alt- hough they show high coherence of distribution. Precipitation decreases from southeast to northwest on an annual and seasonal scale. There are three rainfall centers （〉500 mm） including Menyuan, Qilian and Toson Lake, and two low rain- fall centers （〈50 mm） including Dunhuang and Ejin Banner. Meanwhile, precipitation in most of the study area presents an increasing trend; especially in northern Qilian Mountains （〉5 mm/a）, Badain Jaran Desert （〉2 mm/a）, Toson Lake （〉20 mm/a） and Qingtu Lake （〉20 ram/a） which shows a significant increasing trend, while precipitation in Hala Lake （〈-2 mm/a） and Tengger Desert （〈-3 mm/a） demonstrates a decreasing trend.     

1208-1369年陕甘宁交界地区干湿变化

More than 240 items of historical records containing climatic information were retrieved from official historical books, local chronicles, annals and regional meteorological disaster yearbooks. By using moisture index and flood/drought (F/D) index obtained from the above information, the historical climate change, namely wet-dry conditions in borderland of Shaanxi Province, Gansu Province and Ningxia Hui Autonomous Region (BSGN, mainly included Ningxialu, Hezhoulu, Gongchanglu, Fengyuanlu and Yan’anlu in the Yuan Dynasty) was studied. The results showed that the climate of the region was generally dry and the ratio between drought and flood disasters was 85/38 during the period of 1208–1369. According to the frequencies of drought-flood disasters, the whole period could be divided into three phases. (1) 1208–1240: drought dominated the phase with occasional flood disasters. (2) 1240–1320: long-time drought disasters and extreme drought events happened frequently. (3) 1320–1369: drought disasters were less severe when flood and drought disasters happened alternately. Besides, the reconstructed wet-dry change curve revealed obvious transition and periodicity in the Mongol-Yuan Period. The transitions occurred in 1230 and 1325. The wet-dry change revealed 10- and 23-year quasi-periods which were consistent with solar cycles, indicating that solar activity had affected the wet-dry conditions of the study region in the Mongol-Yuan Period. The reconstructed results were consistent with two other study results reconstructed from natural evidences, and were similar to another study results from historical documents. All the above results showed that the climate in BSGN was characterized by long-time dry condition with frequent severe drought disasters during 1258 to 1308. Thus, these aspects of climatic changes might have profound impacts on local vegetation and socio-economic system.     

1480-1940年广东地区气候干湿变化与旱涝灾害区域分异特征

1 IntroductionThe natural disasters, especially the flood and drought disasters, have occurred frequently inG uangdong area since ancienttim es.A ccording to historic statisticaldata,since the 17th century,the occurrence of the flood and drought disasters…     

黑龙江省五常地区重力场特征及区域地质构造特征分析

区域重力调查工作,对断裂的空间位置及区域构造分区是主要地质任务之一。本文利用布格重力异常,进行深部场、浅部场的分析。通过场的分离对区域场与剩余场特征分析;经过异常转换信息划分区域地质构造界线,特别是对Ⅲ级构造单元的划分从重力异常成果中,获得三高二低趋势,通过深大断裂划分确定区域地质构造分区界线,从而重新划分该区Ⅲ级以上构造区块位置,本次工作成果将为今后该区研究工作带来新的信息。     

2010—2015年中东北非政局变动中的“政治性民意势力”及其影响

援引批判地缘政治学话语权和地缘政治想象分析方法,在对“民意”“政治性民意”“政治性民意势力”内涵界定的基础上,分析了2010—2015年中东北非地区相关国家政局变动中“政治性民意势力”的形成背景、过程及其影响。结果表明：中东北非国家“政治性民意势力”的形成有着深厚的国内背景和复杂的国际背景;“政治性民意势力”的形成经历了从民意事件客体的呈现,到民众聚集并上升为政治性议题,再到国内外势力借力博弈形成挑动抗议、推动政变的政治力量的过程;“政治性民意势力”形成以后,多行为体借力博弈下,在国别、区域上呈现不同的扩散轨迹和规律;“政治性民意势力”一方面造成了中东北非相关国家的政局变换,另一方面则推动区域地缘政治格局的变迁。这是对民意事件的地缘政治理论解读和分析,是一次较为有意义的尝试。     

地理信息系统技术在区域城镇发展用地评价中的应用——以海南省为例

区域城镇发展用地评价是区域经济开发的先行步骤。作者利用地理信息系统的技术,建立地形评价模型、基础设施辐射范围扩散模型、分区多幅图覆盖分析模型等一整套模型,使评价工作较以往更为科学、系统,且省时省力。本文研究了海南省城镇发展用地条件。