“93.5”黑风暴发展期中尺度期热量和水汽收支诊断

１９９３年５月４—６日（“９３．５”）在我国西北地区发生了一次极具破坏力的“黑风暴”。为了诊断这次黑风暴发展期的热量和水汽收支，使用了具有高分辨ＰＢＬ参数化及４０ｋｍ细网络的ＭＭ４对该例控制模拟的输出资料和热量与水汽收支方程。对视热源（Ｑ１）和视水汽汇（Ｑ２）的诊断结果指出，Ｑ１的垂直积分在黑风暴的前部和后部分别呈现一条显著的加热带和冷却带。在黑风暴区，Ｑ１和Ｑ２的区域平均垂直廓线揭示，黑风暴的Ｑ１加热主要发生在对流层的上部，而其中部加热主要出现在发展初期；与Ｑ１相应，Ｑ２在低空和中空分别发生明显的增湿变冷和变干加热。这些结果不仅与因黑风暴过程而观测到的强剧强降温率一致，而且也为改进和发展用于模拟和预报黑风暴的中尺度数值模式提供了一些物理依据     

气球携带碘化银焰弹技术研究

主要介绍在北京地区开展气球携带碘化银焰弹雨雪作业的作业技术，经济效益等问题。通过各种增雨雪技术比较，认敢球携带碘化银焰弹增雨雪作业在北方干旱地区的抗旱工作中或作为收音机增雨雪作业的补充手段具有应用价值     

中国西北部“4.5”沙尘暴过程中尺度低压的数值模拟

利用改进型ＰＳＵ／ＮＣＡＲ中尺度数值模式（ＭＭ４标准版），取模式水平格距４０ｋｍ，４６×６１网格，垂直方向ａ取１５层，即从地面到模式顶（１００ｈＰａ），σ＝０．０、０．１、０．２、０．３、０．４、０．５、０．６、０．７、０．７８、０．８４、０．８９、０．９３、０．９６、０．９８、０．９９、１．００，采用ＮＣＡＲ的３０＇×３０＇地形资料，以常规观测资料作为初始场，较好地模拟了此次沙尘暴过程的海平面气压的演变和分布，特别是张掖、柴达本盆地以及敦煌附近的三个中低压。同时，模拟了张掖中低压与蒙古冷高压之间的甘肃河西沙尘暴东大风。敏感性试验表明，沙尘暴中低压的形成发展主要是受于物理过程制约；沙尘暴中尺度系统的研究与暴雨中尺度系统的研究是有区别的，积云对流参数化并不是特别重要，在设计研究沙尘暴的数值模式中，应当合理地处理其他的热力、动力过程及大气外强迫源的作用。模式水平格距、地形真实程度对模拟中低压的位置、中心强度有重要贡献；下垫面变化中低压强度有一定影响。张掖热低压的形成发展主要是在有利的环境形势下，特殊地势起了重要作用，表现为直接动力强迫和间接热力强迫。     

国内外PMP/PMF的发展和实践

对20世纪80年代以来PMP／PMF在国内外的发展和实践情况作了简要的介绍和评论。内容包括PMP／PMF定义、估算方法、成果合理性检查和概率。PMP估算方法包括概化估算法、当地暴雨放大、暴雨移置、暴雨组合、推理模式和统计估算法。PMF估算着重介绍了由PMP转化为PMF的产流和汇流特点，以及目前在南非和法语非洲国家广泛应用的经验公式。     

一次强风暴的垂直环境特征数值模拟分析

应用MM 5模式对东北冷涡诱发的 2 0 0 2年 7月 1 2日强风暴进行了数值模拟 ,较成功地模拟出中尺度强对流风暴。发现冷涡后部中层干冷空气绝热下沉是东北冷涡 70 0hPa附近干暖盖形成和维持的重要机制 ,而低层暖湿气流爬升及干暖盖的抑制作用是东北冷涡强对流不稳定能量积累的重要机制。风暴发生前持续的低层西南风到中层西北风的风垂直切变产生的差动平流 ,加剧了层结不稳定 ,而风暴临近风垂直切变方向的快速逆转使热成风不平衡 ,必须通过激发垂直环流以适应其变化 ,对风暴发展有重要作用。     

沈阳地区沙尘天气分析

本文总结了沈阳地区沙尘天气的时空分布特点，从天气条件、地表自然条件(沙源)两方面分析了沈阳地区沙尘天气的成因，总结了沈阳地区预报沙尘天气时应参考的5个因素。     

牡丹江市大--暴雨中期预报方法研究

应用MICAPS平台所提供的数值预报产品，分析影响牡丹江市大一暴雨的天气系统，并找出关键区域及预报指标，在实际预报中取得了很好的效果。     

Physicochemistry and Mineralogy of Storm Dust and Dust Sediment in Northern China

Dust sediments collected from 1995 to 1998 in Beijing, Dunhuang, Inner Mongolia, Kashi, the Kunlun Mountains, Lanzhou, Ningxia, the Taklimakan Desert, and Xi‘an, China, were characterized in terms of their physical, chemical, and mineralogical properties. Most aerosols and dust analysed ranged in texture from silty clay to clay loam. Their median particle diameters (Mds) generally ranged between 5 to 63μm,coinciding with those of loess from central China and the finest sand from northwestern China. The dust sediments were characterized by a predominance of SiO2 and Al2O3, followed by K2O. Their SiO2/Al2O3and K2O/SiO2 molar ratios ranged from 5.17 to 8.43 and from 0.009 to 0.0368, respectively. The mass concentration spectrum during a dust storm showed a single peak, rather than the triple peak generally observed under clear sky conditions. The dominant minerals were chlorite, illite, calcite, and dolomite.These physical, chemical, and mineralogical properties were consistent with those of aeolian soils and loess in western and central China. The results suggest that aerosols and fine-gained fractions of dust sediments collected in northern China are mainly composed of soil material transported from the arid and semiarid regions of China and Mongolia by prevailing winds. The rate of deposition and properties of dust falling on eastern China were strongly influenced by meteorological conditions, season, latitude, longitude, and altitude of the sampling sites.     

Maximum Storm Surge Curve Due to Global Warming for the European North Sea Region During the 20th–21st Century

Computations of storm surges during the 20th century needs to incorporate globalwarming of about 0.6 °C ± 0.2 °C (IPCC, 2001). In order totake this global warming into consideration, the development of all storm surgesoccurred during the 20th century have been analysed. The study comprises determiningto what degree the storm surge curve and storm surge level depend on each other. Thisfact can be used to calculate a maximum storm surge curve and each single storm surgeevent can be summarised. The tendency of the surge and wind parameters do not showthat this maximum storm surge levels in the 20th century will occur earlier than predicted, however, the global warming of 0.6 °C will extend the duration of the mean storm surge curve.     

L'archivage des activités humaines par les neiges et glaces polaires : le cas du plomb

The investigation of the occurrence of lead in dated snow and ice from Greenland and Antarctica has played a major role in our understanding of the history of the pollution of the atmosphere of our planet by this metal. Such studies have however proved to be very demanding, mainly because of the extreme purity of polar snow and ice. Reliable measurements can be obtained only if ultra-clean and highly sensitive procedures are used, as pioneered by Clair Patterson. The Greenland data show evidence of large-scale pollution of the atmosphere of the Northern Hemisphere for lead as early as two millennia ago during Greco–Roman times, especially because of mining and smelting activities in southern Spain. It peaked at the end of the 1960s, with lead concentrations in snow about 200 times higher than natural values, before declining during recent times because of the fall in the use of leaded gasoline. Lead pollution in Antarctica was already significant at the end of the 19th century as a consequence of whaling activities, the traffic of coal-powered ships crossing the Cape Horn, and mining activities in South America, South Africa and Australia. After declining because of the opening of the Panama Canal, the great economic depression and World War II, it reached a maximum during the 1980s, with lead concentrations 20 times higher than natural values. Other studies focus on past natural variations of lead in ancient ice dated from the last climatic cycles. To cite this article: C. Boutron et al., C. R. Geoscience 336 (2004).