陕北能源开发区产业同构化对比研究与趋势预测

正确认识区域产业同构状况及演变趋势,对于制定科学的经济发展政策,尤其是产业发展政策具有较为重要的现实意义。以陕北能源开发区-榆林市为研究对象,根据1995-2015年三次产业数据分析了榆林市产业结构模式,通过产业结构相似系数测度了榆林市产业同构,并从横向与纵向两个维度对产业同构进行对比分析,另采用R/S分析法,对未来产业同构的演变趋势进行预测。研究发现：（1）榆林市产业呈现典型的"二三一"产业结构模式,第二产业比重较大,成为推动全市经济发展的主导力量。（2）榆林市北六县和南六县内部产业结构趋同度属于较高层次,产业结构同质化现象十分严重;尤其以神木县-府谷县（0.976 2）和佳县-清涧县（0.967 5）最为突出,南六县与北六县绝大多数区县间产业同构度都低于0.9,产业趋同现象不明显。（3）榆林市南六县与北六县产业结构相似系数的H（1995-2015）=0.611 2>0.5,如果在原有条件下继续发展,榆林市未来产业同构化程度将有所强化,但存在周期性变化。研究认为在相似的能源条件、经济交流与联系日益紧密及经济发展水平不断接近的条件下,榆林市产业结构的趋同发展具有一定必然性,在未来制定促进经济发展的政策时应有一个清醒的认识。     

空间前方交会原理在相似模拟实验中的应用

根据空间前方交会原理在实验室内对进行开采沉陷的相似模拟实验中的形变过程,将采集的数据进行处理,并且根据移动变形的相互关系,分析得到地表的真实形变情况,解决了相似模拟移动数据采集的问题。通过实践表明,该理论在数据采集过程中,实测方便、简洁。     

浙江登陆台风的灰色灾变预测研究

根据热带气旋在浙江登陆的基本资料, 利用灰色灾变预测的原理和方法, 对台风登陆浙江的年份进行了预测研究。结果表明, 浙江未来第一、第二和第三个强台风登陆年将分别出现在2001、2004 和2008 年     

采用随机模拟技术与常规水文方法相结合的洪水过程模拟法

随着江河上兴建的水利工程日渐增多,流域的防洪规划和防洪调度工作,正在从以个别工程为主要研究对象转向以全流域复杂库群为研究对象。常规水文方法很难反映这种复杂流域的水文特性,在工程实践中其局限性越来越突出。随着计算机运算能力的提高,径流的随机模拟技术逐步得到研究和应用。本文分析了常规水文方法与纯数学随机模拟技术的不足,并提出了一种新的、简单易行的模拟全流域洪水的模拟方法,该方法已应用于太子河流域的库群联合防洪调度中,并取得了较好的成果。     

深部隧道围岩分区破裂颗粒流模拟研究

深部岩体处于"三高"环境下,表现出不同于浅埋岩体的性质,其变形破裂规律更为复杂(分区破裂、片帮、塑性流动、岩爆等),为了准确描绘深部隧道围岩变形破裂规律,采用PFC从微观角度研究深部岩体的宏观响应。研究发现:随着隧道埋深增加,压力增大,由浅部围岩表面塑性破坏变为深部围岩破裂扩展,破裂区域呈交替分区破裂向深部发展,破裂区的间距与岩性和埋深有关;从横断面看,拱腰先出现破裂,然后拱脚出现破裂,最后贯通形成破裂区;若围岩表面施加外力,破裂区域减小,分区向深部移动,因此预应力锚杆有效地改善了围岩承载特性;研究结果与模型试验吻合,符合深部岩体卸荷作用下的变形破坏规律。结论可为深部岩体工程设计施工提供参考。     

Analysis of rainfall variability over Tanzania in late austral summer

利用站点观测资料和再分析资料,采用相关分析,Morlet小波功率谱分析和复合分析等方法,研究了 1961-2011年南半球夏季后期(1-3月)坦桑尼亚降水的年际变化特征,并探讨了相关的大气环流和海温异常情况,以及坦桑尼亚干,湿年发生的机制.研究结果表明:坦桑尼亚1-3月降水变化存在显著的2-8年的年际变化周期和8-12...     

基于GIS的西峰区沟道雨洪资源可利用量研究

利用庆阳市西峰区的DEM、Quickbird影像资料对西峰区沟道特征进行沟道特征分析,并分析了沟道不同降水频率下雨洪特征。以司家沟为典型沟道,采取典型年法和单次暴雨分析法将不同降水频率典型年中大于20mm的单次降水与基准暴雨量相对应,计算出典型年的雨洪总量(可收集利用量)和单次降水的洪峰流量,并进一步分析了不同降水保证率的各区域雨洪资源量。结果表明,西峰区各沟道雨洪资源量的总体趋势为高保证率雨洪资源量少、低保证率雨洪资源量大,但是由于洪水频率跟降雨频率不同步,在干旱年降水频率低时,洪水频率有可能较大,因此干旱年份对雨洪资源的利用尤为重要。     

Response of First-Order Sequence to the Galactic Year Cycle in the Phanerozoic:An Important Progress and Topic

The sequence which corresponds to the first-order sea-level cycle is called the first-order sequence, and the first-order sequence may have an internal relationship with the galactic year cycle, in other words, the galactic year cycle may control the first-order sequence macroscopically. The superevents in the Phanerozoic, such as the concentration change of atmospheric gas carbon dioxide, the alternation of "calcite sea" and "aragonite sea" in the hydrosphere, and the reversal of magnetic poles, are cyclical. They have obvious correlation in genesis, and they are likely to be controlled by the complicated genetic relationship between galactic annual cycles and various superevents. Over the years, researches have shown that when the solar system moves around the galactic center, the acceleration of gravity (value of G) changes accordingly, and the solar system expands (or shrinks). The Earth, a member of the solar system, forms a change in potential energy and absorbs (or releases) heat. At the same time, the gravitational differentiation changes as a result of the value of G change, which leads to the expansion of the mantle and the contraction of the core; when the energy accumulates to a certain degree, the superplume will be activated, which will affect the plate pattern on the earth. In recent years, the periodic changes of these superevents in Phanerozoic have attracted extensive attention and discussion. Paying attention to these wise understandings and existing problems will provide important thinking process and research clues for in-depth research.     

THE PEATLAND/ICE AGE HYPOTHESIS REVISED, ADDING A POSSIBLE GLACIAL PULSE TRIGGER

Carbon sequestering in peatlands is believed to be a major climate‐regulating mechanism throughout the late Phanerozoic. Since plant life first evolved on land, peatlands have been significant carbon sinks, which could explain significant parts of the large variations in atmospheric carbon dioxide observed in various records. The result is peat in different degrees of metamorphosis, i.e. lignite, hard coal and graphite. During phases of extensive glaciations such as the 330–240 Ma Pangea Ice Age, atmospheric carbon dioxide was critically low. This pattern repeats itself during the Pleistocene when carbon dioxide oscillates with an amplitude of c. 200–300 ppmv. This paper suggests that the ice age cycles during the Pleistocene are generated by the interglacial growth of peatlands and the subsequent sequestering of carbon into this terrestrial pool. The final initiation of ice age pulses towards the end of inter‐glacials, on the other hand, is attributed to the cyclic influx of cosmic dust to the Earth surface, which in turn regulates cloud formation and the incoming shortwave radiation. These shorter cycles have a frequency of c. 1000‐1250 years and might be connected to sunspot or other low frequency solar variations. In a wider context the ice age cycling could be regarded as an interplay between terrestrial life on the high latitudes of the northern hemisphere and the marine subsurface life in the southeast. If the results presented here are correct, the present global warming might just be the early part of a new warm period such as the Bronze Age and the Roman and Medieval Warm periods. This could be caused by entry into another phase of decreasing influx rates of cosmic dust. The increasing concentrations of atmospheric carbon dioxide might have contributed to this warming but, most important of all, it might temporarily have saved us from a new ice age pulse.     

The 1997–1998 Activity of Volcán de Colima,Western Mexico: Some Aspects of the Associated Seismic Activity

Volcán de Colima, the most active volcano in Mexico, had a climactic episode on 20 November, 1998. On this date, a dome formed on the small summit crater during the previous few days, collapsed generating block-and-ash flows. The event was preceded by almost twelve months of seismic activity, which continued afterwards for several more months. We analyzed the main seismic activity, which occurred from 20 March, 1998 to 31 March, 1999. The seismicity was dominated by volcano-tectonic earthquakes before the climax, and subsequently by hybrid and long-period earthquakes. We determined the frequency of events for the entire period, and located most of the volcano-tectonic events. To assess the possibility that these earthquakes were generated by the same source, they were tested for their similitude through cross correlation in the time domain. Six groups of similar events, or earthquake families, were generated. The members of these families appeared before the 20 November event, apparently ceasing afterwards. We examined the location of the families' events with respect to an existing gravity model in which an anomalous body of negative density contrast suggests the presence of the magma chamber. Most of the family events occur on top of the anomalous body, which suggests they were associated with the passage of magma through the feeding conduits of the volcano.