"98.7"特大暴雨低涡的螺旋度和动能诊断分析

“98．7”特大暴雨过程与700hPa低涡切变线的强烈发展以及丰沛的水汽和强垂直运动密切相关。螺旋度的诊断结果揭示,与强暴雨区和切变线低涡相应的是一对符号相反而又紧邻的螺旋度带。它们的垂直结构是一对符号相反而又互伴的螺旋度柱;螺旋度及其诸分量的量级是相同的。这表明,垂直运动的水平切变和水平速度的垂直切变以及水平速度的水平切变对螺旋度有相同大小的员献,也意味着强垂直运动和低空急流对暴雨的发生和发展极其重要。动能的诊断结果显示。强动能区与暴雨区和低涡切变线有很好的对应关系,在中、低空的强动能中心也正是强降雨中心;动能最强的700hPa也是低涡切变线发展最强的层面。强动能及其强梯度区和强螺旋度区基本一致。表明强动能及其强梯度对螺旋度变率及其通量有重要贡献。     

南海到西太平洋地区水汽输送和山东夏季降水量奇异值分解分析

利用奇异值分解(SVD)方法和山东省26个代表站1951～2000年6～8月降水量、NCEP／NCAR再分析1958～1998年1～12月925～300hPa5层月平均比湿和风场资料,分析了山东夏季降水与前期(冬季、春季)及同期(夏季)南海到西太平洋地区水汽输送之间相关场的分布型,从中找出了遥相关的“关键区”,并对找到的“关键区”的可靠性进行了验证。研究表明,山东夏季降水与前期(冬季、春季)和同期(夏季)南海到西太平洋地区水汽输送相关较好,春季的相关程度最高,冬季次之,夏季最小。     

Simulations demonstrating interaction between coarse and fine sediment loads in rain‐impacted flow

Rain‐impacted flows dominate sheet and interrill erosion and are important in eroding soil rich in nutrients and other chemicals which may have deleterious effects on water quality. Erosion in rain‐impacted flow is associated with raindrop detachment followed by transport either by the combination of flow velocity and raindrop impact (raindrop‐induced flow transport, RIFT) or the inherent capacity of the flow to transport detached material. Coarse particles tend to be transported by RIFT, while fine particles tend to be transported without any assistance from raindrop impact. Because the transport process associated with coarse particles is not 100 per cent efficient, it generates a layer of loose particles on the soil surface and this layer protects the underlying soil from detachment. Simulations were performed by modelling the uplift and downstream movement of both fine and coarse particles detached from the soil surface by individual raindrop impacts starting with a surface where no loose material was present. The simulations produced a flush of fine material followed by a decline in the discharge of fine material as the amount of loose material built up on the bed. The decline in the discharge of fine material was accompanied by an increase in the discharge of coarse material. The relative amounts of coarse and fine material discharged in the flow varied with flow velocity and cohesion in the surface of the soil matrix. The results indicate that the discharge of various sized sediments is highly dependent on local soil, rain and flow conditions and that extrapolating the results from one situation to another may not be appropriate. Copyright © 2006 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Model study of the relationship between sediment yield and river basin area

The SHETRAN physically based, spatially distributed model is used to investigate the scaling relationship linking specific sediment yield to river basin area, for two contrasting topographies of upland and more homogeneous terrain and as a function of sediment source, land use and rainfall distribution. Modelling enables the effects of the controls to be examined on a systematic basis, while avoiding the difficulties associated with the use of field data (which include limited data, lack of measurements for nested basins and inability to isolate the effects of individual controls). Conventionally sediment yield is held to decrease as basin area increases, as the river network becomes more remote from the headwater sediment sources (an inverse relationship). However, recent studies have reported the opposite variation, depending on the river basin characteristics. The simulation results are consistent with these studies. If the sediment is supplied solely from hillslope erosion (no channel bank erosion) then, with uniform land use, sediment yield either decreases or is constant as area increases. The downstream decrease is accentuated if rainfall (and thence erosion) is higher in the headwaters than at lower elevations. Introducing a non‐uniform land use (e.g. forest at higher elevations, wheat at lower elevations) can reverse the trend, so that sediment yield increases downstream. If the sediment is supplied solely from bank erosion (no hillslope erosion), the sediment yield increases downstream for all conditions. The sediment yield/basin area relationship can thus be inverse or direct, depending on basin characteristics. There still remains, therefore, considerable scope for defining a universal scaling law for sediment yield. Copyright © 2006 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Meteorological monitoring of an active volcano: Implications for eruption prediction

Rainfall data collected on and around the Soufriere Hills Volcano, Montserrat between 1998 and 2003 were analysed to assess the impact on primary volcanic activity, defined here as pyroclastic flows, dome collapses, and explosions. Fifteen such rainfall-triggered events were identified. If greater than 20 mm of rain fell on a particular day, the probability of a dome collapse occurring on that day increased by a factor of 6.3% to 9.2%, compared to a randomly chosen day. Similarly, the probability of observing pyroclastic flows and explosions on a day with > 20 mm of rainfall increased by factors of 2.6 and 5.4, respectively. These statistically significant links increased as the rainfall threshold was increased. Seventy percent of these rainfall-induced dome collapse episodes occurred on the same calendar day (most within a few hours) as the onset of intense rainfall, but an extra 3 occurred one or two calendar days later. The state of the volcano was important, with the rainfall–volcanic activity link being strongest during periods of unstable dome growth and weakest during periods of no dome growth or after a recent major collapse.Over 50% of the heavy rain days were associated with large-scale weather systems that can potentially be forecast up to a few days ahead. However, the remaining heavy rain days were associated with small-scale, essentially unpredictable weather systems. There was significant variability in the amount of rainfall recorded by different rain gauges, reflecting topographic variations around the volcano but also the inherent small-scale variability within an individual weather system. Hence, any monitoring/warning program is recommended to use a network, rather than just a single gauge. The seasonal cycle in rainfall was pronounced, with nearly all the heavy rain days occurring in the May–December wet season. Hence, the dome was at its most vulnerable at the beginning of the wet season after a period of uninterrupted growth. Interannual variability in rainfall was related to tropical Pacific and Atlantic sea surface temperature anomalies, and holds out the prospect of some limited skill in volcanic hazard forecasts at even longer lead times.     

单站GPS遥感水汽含量范围的确定及结果分析

随着GPS技术的日益成熟和研究的不断深入,GPS的定位精度得到了大幅度的提高,为其在测绘、交通、林业资源、石油勘探、精细农业等行业的应用提供了更广阔的空间。GPS气象学(GPS/Meteorology简称GPS/MET)的诞生改善了原有大气监测技术的局限性,极大的提高了气象监测的时空分辨率,但是在将这项技术由试验阶段向推广普及应用的过程中,单站地基GPS监测的有效范围以及水汽解的精度一直为广大气象学家们所忽略,本文在对以往GPS气象数据收集和整理的基础上,根据理论计算和实际验算,得出了一些有益的结论。     

副高边缘暴雨的多普勒雷达回波特征

利用常规观测资料和多普勒雷达探测资料，对2003-2004年湖南省4次副高边缘暴雨的天气形势和雷达回波特征进行了分析研究。结果表明：4次暴雨过程的副高位置适当，高空有低槽，中低层有低空急流和低涡切变线，地面上有冷锋。在基本反射率图上，低槽暴雨有S-N向的窄带回波特征、冷式切变线暴雨有准W—E向的积层回波特征、暖式切变线有NE—SW向的积层回波特征，但每一次暴雨过程不尽相同。在多普勒速度图上常出现低空急流、冷暖平流、冷锋、逆风区以及高层大风核等特征，并常是几种特征同时出现，有利于强降水产生。     

基于“配料”的梅雨锋强降水预报方法

在梅雨锋暴雨预报中应用“配料法”，通过降水量的基本公式解释了强降水形成的基本配料，给出了建立配料的基本步骤，同时，通过一次暴雨个例分析，具体阐述了“配料法”在梅雨锋暴雨预报中的应用。结果表明，基于暴雨等强对流天气形成物理机理认识的基础上，所选取的可降水量等动力、热力因子与暴雨有着较好的对应关系，通过分析以上关键物理因子建立的过程，可以给出暴雨潜势预报。     

黔东南暴雨气候特征及其地形影响

利用1960~2000年贵州省黔东南地区降水观测资料,统计分析黔东南地区暴雨时空分布特征,进一步揭示其活动规律及主要影响因素。结果表明:黔东南地区暴雨有显著年代际变化特征,存在准15年的周期变化,并与贵州降水和长江中下游降水呈同位相;存在两个暴雨多发中心,夜间暴雨较多。黔东南暴雨地域分布极为复杂,局地性暴雨较多,这与黔东南特殊地形有着密切关系,地形因素是影响黔东南地区暴雨的重要原因,对形成上述特征的气候学成因做了初步讨论。     

暴雨云团的卫星监测和研究进展

该文对卫星监测、分析和研究暴雨云团的国内外若干研究结果和进展给予了简要综述。主要涉及卫星遥感监测和分析暴雨云团的适宜尺度, 中尺度对流复合体, 东亚梅雨锋暴雨云团的监测和分析, 卫星资料同化和数值模拟及问题与展望等方面的内容。