Pluie ou neige? Dispositif de mesures pluviographiques dans les Andes de Bolivie et interprétation des enregistrements/Rainfall or snowfall? Device for measuring the precipitation phase in the Bolivian Andes and analysis of the records

Abstract

Abstract The knowledge of the precipitation phase, solid or liquid, is important in high mountains, in order to use models of water and energy balances. During an experiment led in the Bolivian Andes, a complete weather station was installed at an altitude close to 4800 m, including two raingauge recorders, the first one with added antifreeze and oil, based on weight measurement, and the other one with tipping buckets. This device allowed a realistic partition of the liquid and solid phases in this region of tropical mountains, where the observed snow pack at the ground level is strongly influenced by the extremely high solar radiation and where the snow cover is ephemeral. The automation of the ?raingauges? method, compared with several other classical methods, shows satisfactory results.     

Comment on ‘García‐Santos G,Bruijnzeel LA. 2011. Rainfall,fog and throughfall dynamics in a subtropical ridge top cloud forest,National Park of Garajonay (La Gomera,Canary Islands,Spain). Hydrological Processes 25: 411–417’

A previous study aiming to characterize the water dynamics of a cloud forest in the Garajonay National Park (La Gomera) from measurements taken in a plot located in the upper part of a selected watershed within the park is here commented. Reported magnitudes of hydrological variables and conclusions based on them are in disagreement with those of numerous studies carried out previously at the same site. Large data dispersion and inapplicability of some of the hypothesis assumed are shown to invalidate most of the results. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Accounting for sparsely observed rainfall space—time variability in a rainfall—runoff model of a semiarid Tunisian basin/Prise en compte d'observations peu denses de la variabilité spatiotemporelle de la pluie dans une modélisation pluie—débit d'un bassin semi-aride Tunisien

Abstract

The management of water excesses and deficits is a major task in semiarid Mediterranean regions, where the variability of rainfall inputs is high at different time and space scales. Thus intense hydrometeorological events, which generate both potential resource and hazards, are of major interest. A simple method is proposed, with the example of the Skhira basin (192 km²) in central Tunisia, to account for the event space–time variability of rainfall in a rainfall–runoff model, in order to check its influence on the shape, magnitude and timing of resulting hydrographs. The transfer function used is a geomorphology-based unit hydrograph with an explicit territorial significance. Simulations made for highly variable events show the relevance of this method, seen as the first step of a downward approach, and its robustness with respect to the quality and the density of rainfall data.     

A probability-weighted moment test to assess simple scaling

We present a statistically robust approach based on probability weighted moments to assess the presence of simple scaling in geophysical processes. The proposed approach is different from current approaches which rely on estimation of high order moments. High order moments of simple scaling processes (distributions) may not have theoretically defined values and consequently, their empirical estimates are highly variable and do not converge with increasing sample size. They are, therefore, not an appropriate tool for inference. On the other hand we show that the probability weighted moments of such processes (distributions) do exist and, hence, their empirical estimates are more robust. These moments, therefore, provide an appropriate tool for inferring the presence of scaling. We illustrate this using simulated Levystable processes and then draw inference on the nature of scaling in fluctuations of a spatial rainfall process.     

1991 年江淮暴雨的定量预报检验

利用Threat Score方法，对1991年6月12—15日，6月29日—7月12日江淮持续暴雨的定量预报进行了检验。结果表明，对于大雨和暴雨预报，目前主观预报优于客观预报。数值预报在降雨定量预报的某些方面有了一定突破。     

Advanced use into rainfall prediction of three-dimensionally scanning radar

A computational method for the determination of rainfall distribution for applications in short term rainfall prediction is presented here. The method is strongly influenced by the experience gained from the observation and analysis of data gathered on a heavy rainfall event in 1986 that occurred during the Baiu Season in Japan. The method is based on the concept that rainfall occurs as an interaction between an instability field, appropriately modeled, and a field of water vapor under the influence of topography. The results from this computational method showed good agreement with the temporal variation in the rainband that moved across the observation field in 1986. Towards determination of the parameters in the computational model, another method for the determination of the rainfield is also developed. This second method determines the rainfall distribution from estimation of the conversion rate of water vapor to liquid water through use of data from a three dimensional scanning radar. The results are consistent with those obtained from the first method.     

Rainfall estimation using raingages and radar — A Bayesian approach: 1. Derivation of estimators

Procedures for estimating rainfall from radar and raingage observations are constructed in a Bayesian framework. Given that the number of raingage measurements is typically very small, mean and variance of gage rainfall are treated as uncertain parameters. Under the assumption that log gage rainfall and log radar rainfall are jointly multivariate normal, the estimation problem is equivalent to lognormal co-kriging with uncertain mean and variance of the gage rainfall field.The posterior distribution is obtained under the assumption that the prior for the mean and inverse of the variance of log gage rainfall is normal-gamma 2. Estimate and estimation variance do not have closed-form expressions, but can be easily evaluated by numerically integrating two single integrals. To reduce computational burden associated with evaluating sufficient statistics for the likelihood function, an approximate form of parameter updating is given. Also, as a further approximation, the parameters are updated using raingage measurements only, yielding closed-form expressions for estimate and estimation variance in the Gaussian domain.With a reduction in the number of radar rainfall data in constructing covariance matrices, computational requirements for the estimation procedures are not significantly greater than those for simple co-kriging. Given their generality, the estimation procedures constructed in this work are considered to be applicable in various estimation problems involving an undersampled main variable and a densely sampled auxiliary variable.     

局地强风暴云团与中尺度锋面波动

本文分析了1982—1988年2—5月份的41例与中尺度锋面波动相关联的局地强风暴云团的活动和演变特征，给出了其强盛期天气系统配置模式及其在天气尺度云系演变中的表现型式，最后对其移动做了一般性讨论。