"三联式"资源定量预测与评价--数字找矿理论与实践探讨

随着信息技术的发展,矿产勘查已步入数字化,定量化研究的新阶段。“三联式”成矿预测及资源评价途径正是“数字找矿”的创新探索。“三联式”成矿预测以地质异常分析为基础,以成矿多样性分析与矿床谱系研究为指导,将地质异常,成矿多样性及矿床谱系三方面定量化研究紧密结合形成矿产预测及定量评价的有机切入点,是实现全面数字找矿的必由之路,也是矿产勘查评价领域应用信息技术的基础和前提。     

Holocene regional and local vegetation history and lake-level changes in the Torneträsk area, northern Sweden

A combination of pollen and macrofossil analyses from six lakes at altitudes between 370 and 999 m above sea level (a.s.l.) in the Torneträsk area reflect the Holocene vegetation history. The main field study area has been the Abisko valley at altitudes around 400 m a.s.l. The largest lake, Vuolep Njakajaure has annually laminated (varved) sediments. The chronology and sedimentation rates in the pollen-influx calculations are based on varve yrs in this lake and on radiocarbon dated terrestrial plant macrofossils in the other lakes. A strong increase of mountain birch (Betula pubescens ssp. tortuosa) during the early Holocene with a tree-line c. 300 m above the present, indicates that the summer temperature was c. 1.5 °C higher than today, assuming that the land uplift has been 100 m since then. Scattered stands of pine (Pinus sylvestris) may have been growing in the area immediately after the deglaciation but a forest consisting of pine and mountain birch expanded first at low elevations and reached the eastern parts of the Torneträsk area at c. 8300 cal BP and the western parts at c. 7600 cal BP. The highest pine-birch forest limit was not reached until 6300 cal BP (110 m above present pine limit). Warm and dry conditions during the pine forest maximum led to lowering of the water level documented in Lake Badsjön in the Abisko valley about 1-1.5 m lower than today. Pine and mountain birch were growing at the maximum altitude until c. 4500 cal BP. Assuming that land uplift has been in the range of 20-40 m since the mid-Holocene, this implies that the temperature was then c. 1.5-2 °C higher than today. Rising lake-levels and lowering limits of pine and mountain birch since c. 4500 cal BP indicate a more humid and cool climate during the late Holocene.     

1997年伽师强震群活动的近场定点形变异常特征

对１９９７年伽师强震群前后的近场宁点形变资料和卡尔曼滤波结果的前兆异常进行了分析,结果表明,震前短临异常较为明显。通过密切跟踪,在后续强震的预报中发挥了重要作用。文中还对异常与孕震构造和应力场的关系进行了讨论。     

地电学地震预报方法软件系统(GSEP)

简要介绍了地电学地震预报方法软件系统（ＧＳＥＰ）的结构、主要功能、技术特点、应用范围、软件运行环境、研制开发平台、性能技术指标以及可进一步开发的内容和推广应用前景。     

Extensions to Spatial Factor Methods with an Illustration in Geochemistry

Many applications involving spatial data require several layers of information to be simultaneously analyzed in relation to underlying geography and topographic detail. This in turn generates a need for forms of multivariate analysis particularly oriented to spatial problems and designed to handle spatial structure and dependency both within and between spatially indexed multivariate responses. In this paper we focus on one group of such methods sometimes referred to as spatial factor analysis. Use of these techniques has so far been mostly restricted to applications in the geosciences and in some forms of image processing, but the methods have potential for wider use outside these fields. They are concerned with identifying components of a multivariate data set with a spatial covariance structure that predominantly acts over a particular spatial range or zone of influence. We review the various forms of spatial factor analysis that have been proposed and emphasize links between them and with the linear model of coregionalization employed in geostatistics. We then introduce extensions to such methods that may prove useful in exploratory spatial analysis, both generally and more specifically in the context of multivariate spatial prediction. Application of our proposed exploratory techniques is demonstrated on a small but illustrative geochemical data set involving multielement measurements from stream sediments.     

隧道掘进中掌子面前方岩石结构的超前预报

以地球物理勘探方法进行隧道掘进中前方岩石结构的超前预报,具有快捷、准确和实时处理及显示的优点。通过该方法可及时、详细地了解开挖掌子面前方岩石结构情况,为施工单位合理安排施工进度和减少工程隐患提供依据。以吉林省白山市石碑岭隧道掘进中所进行的超前预报为例,介绍了地质雷达和地震反射波法在这一领域里的应用。     

中国冰川径流的评估及其未来50 a变化趋势预测

基于中国冰川编目资料,应用冰川系统对气候变化响应的功能模型,按照几种不同升温率的气候背景,对全国各大流域冰川径流进行了评估,并对未来50 a冰川径流的变化趋势进行了预测.结果表明:1980年全国冰川总径流量615.7×108m3,在升温0.02 K.a-1及0.03 K.a-1情景下,2000年比1980年增大7.13%~10.8%,径流总量增至659.66×108m3~682.24×108m3;与此同时,冰川面积减少1.07%~1.62%,冰储量也减少1.14%~1.73%.2000—2030年全国冰川径流都将逐步增长,在2030年左右均达到了最高峰,径流增率ΔW/W0分别为9.6%及15.0%,总径流量分别为675.15×108m3,和707.91×108m3.2030年以后,全国冰川径流均开始从高峰缓慢回落,但直到2050年分别比初始径流量多8.6%及13.6%.因此,在2050年以前,特别是2030年前后是在上述气候情景下充分利用冰川融水的最好时机,但也是冰川洪水等灾害的多发期.就各流域来说,敏感型区径流高峰出现时间早而径流增率小,稳定型区则反之.如果出现极端的持续升温,如升温率为0.05 K.a-1,全国冰川径流增率可达26.5%,到21世纪末回落到1980年水平以下,而冰川储量损失达57%,届时中国西部生态环境将急剧恶化.     

白垩纪地球表层系统重大地质事件与温室气候变化研究

国家重点基础研究发展计划（973）项目“白垩纪地球表层系统重大地质事件与温室气候变化”，将以白垩纪与碳循环相关的重大地质事件和温室气候变化的关系为主线，以大洋缺氧事件—富氧作用转变过程和机制研究为突破口，进行海陆相整合研究，重点追溯东特提斯洋和我国大陆地球表层系统重大地质事件的记录，探讨这些事件与碳循环、快速气候变化的正/负反馈机制。项目将充分利用中国大陆发育完好的白垩纪海相、陆相地层及古生物记录，通过松辽盆地白垩系科学钻探全岩芯取样和多学科综合研究的途径，着眼于厘定反映地质事件和气候变化的层位及标志和时间格架，解决高分辨率海、陆相沉积事件的精确对比，分析地层记录中气候标志和古生物类群的地理分布，集中研究陆地和海洋环境对同一事件的响应机制，重溯白垩纪地球表层系统重大地质事件过程及成因，探究陆相烃源岩大规模形成、陆地生物群更替与温室气候变化和碳循环之间的正/负反馈关系和机制等科学问题，为预测全球长时间尺度上的气候变化趋势提供科学依据。     

隐伏矿床(体)定位预测的综合找勘方法

简述了综合找勘方法的组成和特点,重点从地质背景条件的分析、控矿构造与矿体特征的研究、地球物理测量、深部工程验证和找勘模式的建立等方面介绍了综合找勘方法的应用与研究内容;并列举了应用综合找勘方法在黔西北地区寻找隐伏铅-锌矿效果较明显的猫猫厂铅-锌矿和垭都铅-锌矿实例。     

Runoff and water erosion modelling using WEPP on a Mediterranean cultivated catchment

Soil erosion due to water is a major environmental problem in many parts of the world. Most of Mediterranean countries are concerned because of their specific climate and soils sensitivity, but also because of the recent intensification of human activities and agricultural practices. Accurate estimation of soil water erosion for various land-use and climate scenarios is so an important key to define sustainable management policies. In the last decades, several studies have been carried out to build models suitable for quantifying soil erosion. Among these models, the Water Erosion Prediction Project (WEPP, Flanagan, D.C., Nearing, M.A., 1995. USDA-Water Erosion Prediction Project: Hillslope profile and watershed model documentation. NSERL Report 10, USDA-ARS National Soil Erosion Research Laboratory, West Lafayette, IN, USA.) is a physically based, distributed-parameter model that has been developed and mainly validated in USA. Only few studies have investigated its applicability to environmental conditions that differs from those where the model was developed. The aim of this work is to test the efficiency of WEPP model to predict soil erosion at catchment scale in a Mediterranean semi-arid area. Continuous simulations have been conducted between 1995 and 2002 on an cultivated experimental catchment located upstream from a hill reservoir (Kamech catchment, 2.45 km², Cap Bon, Tunisia) where runoff and soil erosion measurements are available at the outlet. Comparison between predictions and measurements shows significant differences. Processes related to seasonal effects (as cracking soils) are pointed out as a weakness of WEPP model for Mediterranean conditions.