台湾海峡及其西边地区正常地震动态及危险性特征

本文从地震的时，空分布特征，区域应力场动态，能量释放方式，ｂ值及震群特征６个方面研究了台湾海峡及其西边地区地震活动的正常动态及异常特征。结果表明，具有前兆意义的变化模式表现为区域地震活动在时间，空间及功能方面的有序性变化，即：（ａ）地震空间分布由分散转为集中，形成条带或空区；（ｂ）断裂活动由多组转为单一，应力场趋向一致；（display status     

Storms and shoreline retreat in the southern Gulf of St. Lawrence

Storms play a major role in shoreline recession on transgressive coasts. In the southern Gulf of St. Lawrence (GSL), southeastern Canada, long-term relative sea-level rise off the North Shore of Prince Edward Island has averaged 0.3 m/century over the past 6000 years (>0.2 m/century over 2000 years). This has driven long-term coastal retreat at mean rates >0.5 m/a but the variance and details of coastal profile response remain poorly understood. Despite extensive sandy shores, sediment supply is limited and sand is transferred landward into multidecadal to century-scale storage in coastal dunes, barrier washover deposits, and flood-tidal delta sinks. Charlottetown tide-gauge records show mean relative sea-level rise of 3.2 mm/a (0.32 m/century) since 1911. A further rise of 0.7±0.4 m is projected over the next 100 years. When differenced from tidal predictions, the water-level data provide a 90-year record of storm-surge occurrence. Combined with wind, wave hindcast, and sea-ice data, this provides a catalogue of potentially significant coastal storms. We also document coastal impacts from three recent storms of great severity in January and October 2000 and November 2001. Digital photogrammetry (1935–1990) and shore-zone surveys (1989–2001) show large spatial and temporal variance in coastal recession rates, weakly correlated with the storm record, in part because of wave suppression or coastal protection by sea ice. Large storms cause rapid erosion from which recovery depends in part on local sand supply, but barrier volume may be conserved by washover deposition. Barrier shores with dunes show high longshore and interdecadal variance, with extensive multidecadal healing of former inlet and overwash gaps. This reflects recovery from an episode of widespread overwash prior to 1935, possibly initiated by intense storms or groups of storms in the latter half of the 19th century. With evidence from the storms of 2000–2001, this points to the importance of storm clustering on scales of weeks to years in determining erosion vulnerability, as well as the need for a long-term, large-scale perspective in assessing coastal stability. The expected acceleration in relative sea-level rise, together with projections of increasing storm intensity and greatly diminished winter ice cover in the southern GSL, implies a significant increase in coastal erosion hazards in future.     

A Study on Hydroelastic Response of Box-Type Very Large Floating Structures

The application of very large floating structure (VLFS) to the utilization of ocean space and exploitation of ocean resources has become one of the issues of great interest in international ocean engineering field. Owing to the advantage of simplicity in structure and low cost of construction and maintenance, box-type VLFS can be used in the calm water area near the coast as the structure configuration of floating airport. In this paper, a 3D linear hydroelastic theory is used to study the dynamic response of box-type VLFS in sinusoidal regular waves. A beam model and a 3D FEM model are respectively employed to describe the dynamic characteristics of the box-type structure in vacuum. A hydrodynamic model (3D potential theory of flexible body) is applied to investigate the effect of different dry models on the hydroelastic response of box-type structure. Based on the calculation of hydroelastic response in regular waves, the rigid body motion displacement, flexible deflection, and the short term and long     

渤海、黄海强温跃层数值预报模式

文中对前人关于水温垂直结构计算、模拟和预报研究成果进行了评价，并在此基础上建立了考虑海面吸收辐射和透射辐射、地形、风、海流、界面摩擦及其引起的混合作用的强温跃层三维数值预报模式。该模式运行的驱动量仅为风和气温场资料，因而具有较好的实用性；此外，从试报的结果看，效果是令人满意的。     

SeagrassNet monitoring across the Americas: case studies of seagrass decline

Seagrasses are an important coastal habitat worldwide and are indicative of environmental health at the critical land–sea interface. In many parts of the world, seagrasses are not well known, although they provide crucial functions and values to the world's oceans and to human populations dwelling along the coast. Established in 2001, SeagrassNet, a monitoring program for seagrasses worldwide, uses a standardized protocol for detecting change in seagrass habitat to capture both seagrass parameters and environmental variables. SeagrassNet is designed to statistically detect change over a relatively short time frame (1–2 years) through quarterly monitoring of permanent plots. Currently, SeagrassNet operates in 18 countries at 48 sites; at each site, a permanent transect is established and a team of people from the area collects data which is sent to the SeagrassNet database for analysis. We present five case studies based on SeagrassNet data from across the Americas (two sites in the USA, one in Belize, and two in Brazil) which have a common theme of seagrass decline; the study represents a first latitudinal comparison across a hemisphere using a common methodology. In two cases, rapid loss of seagrass was related to eutrophication, in two cases losses related to climate change, and in one case, the loss is attributed to a complex trophic interaction resulting from the presence of a marine protected area. SeagrassNet results provide documentation of seagrass change over time and allow us to make scientifically supported statements about the status of seagrass habitat and the extent of need for management action.     

一个基于TOPEX卫星极端海面风速预测的海洋地理信息系统

在基于 TOPEX卫星数据建立全球极端海面风速预测模型的基础上 ,开发出用于极端海面风速预测和可视化预测结果的海洋地理信息系统 (MGIS)。并论述全球极端海面风速预测的意义和 MGIS在预测过程中的重要性及必要性 ;给出全球极端海面风速预测的统计模型 ;简述极端海面风速预测海洋地理信息系统的结构、工作流程和功能 ;同时 ,对系统的预测结果进行初步分析     

Ice Sheet-Thermohaline Circulation Interactions in a Climate Model of Intermediate Complexity

A vertically integrated dynamic ice sheet model is coupled to the atmosphere-ocean-sea ice-land surface climate model recently developed by Wang and Mysak (2000). The background lateral (east-west) ice sheet discharge rate used by Gallee et al. (1992) is reduced and the planetary emissivity is increased (to parameterize the cooling effect of a decrease of the atmospheric CO₂ concentration), in order to build up substantial ice sheets during a glacial period and hence set the stage for ice sheet-thermohaline circulation (THC) interactions. The following iceberg calving scheme is then introduced: when the maximum model height of the North American ice sheet reaches a critical value (2400 m), a prescribed lateral discharged rate is imposed on top of the background discharge rate for a finite time. Per a small prescribed discharge rate, repeated small iceberg calving events occur, which lead to millennial-scale climate cycles with small amplitudes. These are a crude representation of Dansgaard-Oeschger oscillations. Over one such cycle, the zonally averaged January surface air temperature (SAT) drops about 1.5°C at 72.5°N. However, a large prescribed lateral discharge rate leads to the shut down of the THC. In this case, the January SAT drops about 5°C at 72.5°N, the sea ice extent advances equatorward from 57.5° to 47.5°N and the net ice accumulation rate at the grid of maximum ice sheet height is reduced from 0.24 to 0.15 m/y. Since data strongly suggest that a collapsed THC was not a steady state during the last glacial, we restore the THC by increasing the vertical diffusivity in the North Atlantic Ocean for a finite time. The resulting climate cycles associated with conveyor-on and conveyor-off phases have much larger amplitudes; furthermore, the strong iceberg calving events lead to a larger loss of ice sheet mass and hence the period of the oscillations is longer (several thousand years). This revised version was published online in August 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

南海大气低层风场的气候特征分析

分析１９８０－１９８７年欧洲中长期预报中心（ＥＣＭＷＦ）每日风场、温度场格点资料及同期南海区域测站和船舶资料，讨论南海低层风场的气候特征。南海为典型的季风活动区，冬季盛行东北季风，夏季盛行西南季风。流场的季节转换表现为季风系统的交替，相应不同的季风系统，南北温度梯度有一逆转过程，南海北部是温度梯度大且发生明显逆转的海区。１２°Ｎ以南海区气温全年变化极小，整个海区大气温度的季节变化不如流场变化快和显著。     

台风预报系统

本文介绍的是一项在微机上实现的台风预报专家系统。该系统可进行台风气候查询、台风路径检索、台风特例查询，并能利用相似加权法制作出１２－７２小时台风路径和中心强度预报，对异常路径台风也可提供一定的诊断预报判据。本系统已在军内外一些气象业务单位得到应用，实践证明它是一种简便有效的台风预报工具。